NUAI: A New Era of Computer- Agrippa Investments
My Claude Fable 5 Max had the following as top 5 highlights for the paid version:
1. His own base case values Phase 1 at ~$2.20 a share, & the stock trades at $4.74. The most important sentence in 104 pages. Everything above ~$2.20 is payment for phases 2-3, New Mexico optionality, platform value & re-rating hope, none of which he modeled. You now know exactly what the market is charging for the story versus the spreadsheet.
2. Phase 1 isn’t islanded, it’s colocation, & that changes our early-warning system. The first 200MW leans on Vistra & Calpine next door through ERCOT under SB6’s approval process. Self-generation is Phase 2, & those turbine purchase docs aren’t finalized. This puts public, watchable signals BACK on the board: SB6/PUCT filings & any power LOI with the neighbors would likely surface before a lease announcement does.
3. October 8 may be a lender’s option, not a detonation. Per his reading, no lease by early October gives Macquarie the RIGHT to call or accelerate a project-level, non-recourse loan secured by TCDC, not an automatic expiry. Different downside shape: crown-jewel leverage & credibility collapse rather than mechanical corporate death. We verify this ourselves in the April 8-K before adopting it.
4. Everything he modeled assumes the signature. His bear case is “signs but disappoints,” worth ~$0.50 a share. The no-deal branch has no model at all, only his ~80-90% confidence versus our 60-70%. The entire investment case still compresses into one binary event, now with a price band taped to the good side of it.
5. Use 128 million shares from now on. Fully loaded with warrants, RSUs & executive PSUs, his count is more conservative than ours & the honest denominator for every per-share claim you’ll see in the community. Anyone quoting upside on 101M shares, or on the old 53M, is inflating the prize by 25% or more.
The report is genuinely excellent & genuinely bullish, but its rigor cuts both ways. The people quoting “multiples” & the people quoting “$2.20 base case” will both be citing the same document. Be the one who read both pages.