r/NaturalDisasters

A magnitude 5.6 earthquake just struck directly beneath Mount Fuji — JMA puts the follow-up probability at 10-20% and the monitoring window at 7 days. The 1707 precedent took 49.
▲ 154 r/NaturalDisasters+6 crossposts

A magnitude 5.6 earthquake just struck directly beneath Mount Fuji — JMA puts the follow-up probability at 10-20% and the monitoring window at 7 days. The 1707 precedent took 49.

JMA confirmed no changes in volcanic monitoring data after the June 26th M5.6 at 20km depth near Fujikawaguchiko. The agency issued a standard one-week caution window citing 10-20% historical frequency of comparable follow-up events.

The part missing from most coverage: the 2012 NIED study estimated magma chamber pressure beneath Fuji at 1.6 MPa following the Tōhoku earthquake — 16x the 0.1 MPa threshold associated with the 1707 Hōei eruption, which occurred 49 days after the M8.6 Nankai earthquake, well outside the standard monitoring window.

Full analysis with sources: https://youtu.be/l0A7xswu1sM?is=68d-VS0lv6j3tvTt

youtu.be
u/larolita_ — 2 days ago

To the Person Who Started the Waldo Canyon Fire

https://preview.redd.it/1r0x8iez7q9h1.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8e071fb0c970d6bee8e4ec11002458e9c0e5b1

Please turn yourself in. Call the Colorado Springs Police Department right now at (719) 444–7000. Tell the truth about what you did. Then ask all the people you hurt to forgive you. Talk to these people. You will find grace and forgiveness. A heavy weight will be lifted from you. Spend the rest of your life making up for the mistake you made. You might find something else in the process: friendship.

You took so much from so many people. Two people died because of the fire you started. Many more people died in the months after the fire because of the stress, shock and grief related to it. You took valuable things from so many people. This includes the only recording my wife had of her dad’s voice. You took Hospital Bear—my daughter’s favorite stuffed animal. So many of the valuable things you took can seem like nothing, but they were important and valuable.

You have the chance to give something valuable back to us. Tell us your story—how you started the fire, how you felt as it spread, what the fire has taken from you. Give us details about this thing that caused us so much pain.

The community stepped up in so many ways to help us recover. I’m a better man, a better dad and a better member of the Colorado Springs community because of the many ways family and friends loved me and my family as we recovered from the fire. Dozens and dozens and dozens of strangers blessed us tremendously. We have a much better home today than we had on the morning of June 26, 2012. Thank you, sincerely.

I don’t want to hurt you. I don’t want to holler at you or lash out at you. It’s time for all of us to put this behind us—you, me and everyone else. Would you please take a risk and turn yourself in? You have power here. Please use it wisely.

To everyone who was affected by the Waldo Canyon fire, please pray for the person who started it. Forgive him in your heart right now.

I have something else to say to you, and this is harder: Have you ever done something that hurt someone? Would you please confess this to them, ask them to forgive you and do whatever you can to set it right? Write your own letter to the people who hurt you or the person you hurt. Doing this could help you forgive and even bless the person who started the Waldo Canyon fire. Our country and our world need us to admit what we’ve done wrong, receive forgiveness and act to set things right.

I would love to hear from all of you, to talk to you, hear your story, cry and laugh. Please leave me a note.

u/WaldoCanyonSurvivor — 9 days ago
▲ 13 r/NaturalDisasters+3 crossposts

New research confirms the supervolcano-style monitoring at Kīlauea has scientists watching the next 72 hours closely — 49 episodes and counting

Kīlauea has produced 49 fountaining episodes since December 2024 — more than any episodic eruption ever recorded at this volcano, officially surpassing the historic Puʻu ʻŌʻō sequence (47 episodes, 1983-1986) that eventually transitioned into a 35-year lava flow.

USGS's latest update has narrowed the forecast window for episode 50 to June 25-27, with June 26 flagged as most probable. That's not a guess — it's based on measured tiltmeter inflation and gas emission data at the summit.

Full breakdown with sourcing:

https://youtu.be/xpDqKN4ifo0?is=RG8URkGdBSTa4iwS

youtu.be
u/larolita_ — 11 days ago