r/Nauma

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Roth Conversion Math: What tax rate do you use to calculate Terminal Wealth?

I’m modeling a multi-year Roth conversion schedule and trying to calculate total "Terminal Wealth" at the end of the timeline (e.g., age 90) to see if the conversions actually win against the baseline.

To do a fair apples-to-apples comparison, you have to discount the pre-tax (Traditional) balance to its true after-tax value at the very end of your spreadsheet.

For those who DIY your retirement models, what tax rate are you applying to that final pre-tax bucket?

  • Are you using a projected marginal rate, or a blended effective rate?
  • Are you using your own future brackets, or guessing your heirs' tax brackets because of the SECURE Act 10-year rule?
  • Do you adjust for the "widow/widower penalty" (switching the end-of-life brackets to Single)?

Curious to hear how you handle the math on this specific variable without overcomplicating things. Thanks!

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u/alex_nauma — 13 days ago