r/OutlawEconomics

The Broken Economic Model: why thermodynamics and LVT belong together
▲ 30 r/OutlawEconomics+1 crossposts

The Broken Economic Model: why thermodynamics and LVT belong together

https://rolfst.substack.com/p/the-broken-economic-model-and-how?r=1fu3 I've been thinking about how Steve Keen's energy production function and Henry George's land value tax are actually solving the same problem from different angles — and why mainstream economics misses both.

The short version: speculative debt inflates scarce assets without adding physical capacity. GDP counts that inflation as growth. LVT closes the loop by taxing the unearned increment before it leaks to landowners.

I also extend the Georgist definition of "land" to secondary market equity — any asset whose value is finite, socially produced, and extractable as rent without productive contribution.

Curious what this community thinks, especially on the primary/secondary market distinction.

u/rolfst — 1 day ago

The Problems With Interest Equilibrium

One of the most influential and dominant ideas in macroeconomics, is the idea of interest equilibrium, that any issuer of a financial asset, must offer a comparable risk adjusted return.

There are a lot of technical challenges to get to this conclusion.

Many models assume homogenous capital for the sake of simplicity. I think this is recognized as a simplifying assumption, but at the same time it influences how people think about and discuss capital and growth.

The problem of investment involves two basic challenges:

  1. Forecasting future consumption, both the price and quantity for goods and services

  2. Provisioning that consumption for the lowest possible cost.

Not only is it possible to overproduce capital, it is extremely easy to do so, and moreover, the more wealthy you are, the more likely you are to do this.

One of the appeals of capital investment, is that it is perceived as a more durable, longer term store of value and wealth. So if your material needs are satisfied for the next year or two, you will likely focus on upgrading machines, equipment, and building durable capital that has long term value.

But the challenge is that the more you do this, the more likely you are to overinvest, and bring down returns. If you build two machines, but you only needed one, and the second sits idle, then you have waste.

This problem is exacerbated by rapid technological change, which means that machines and equipment become outdated more rapidly, and have higher costs to upgrade, maintain, and train staff on how to use.

Furthermore, a lot of what we do in modern economies, seems unnecessarily abstract and indirect. A tool can make you more productive, but that only pays off if the time to make the tool, is less than the time you save by using it. A lot of jobs seem to try to justify their existence in a market that may not need them. There is a huge premium for being seen as the next great thing.

Interest in particular, is modelled as exponential growth, but companies can saturate markets, they can have waves of popularity and decline, and even their consumer base can age out.

All these things, make it very hard to consistently maintain a return above zero. It is easy to buy or build a machine that becomes obsolete before it has paid itself off. If you are wealthy, it is easy to spend more on cars then you actually need for example. The activity of playing with your cars becomes the thing you are consuming, not the original utility of it to get from A to B.

But another important thing, positive returns to capital and investment are not required to grow wealth, either individually or collectively. So long as you have hours in the day, you can keep creating more value, even if returns are negative.

The problem of exponential gains is a race against the clock. You have to get the most efficient use out of tools, equipment, technologies, before those are replaced by newer and better alternatives.

But aside from all this, what we call capital income, and what we call labor income, is also subjective. The return you get on your investments, you could attribute to the time that you spend researching them.

Importantly, modern portfolio theory describes an efficiency frontier for investments, that optimize the tradeoff between risk and return. But I think there is another variable that we don't talk about enough: actively managed investments or passive investments. If you have to use your knowledge and influence to make sure the enterprise is being operated properly, that is labor that is unaccounted for.

Owners spend their own time to make sure that the things they own provide maximum returns.

If we want to compare alternative investments in an objective manner, we need to subtract the value of all the time that owners contribute to help the investment do well, from the return it offers.

And how much of returns could be a result of companies relying on public institutions which are supported through taxes. If the tax base doesn't align with who benefits from public institutions, then returns will be artificially inflated, as costs are dumped on the public, but profits remain privatized.

To expect to completely passively earn interest in perpetuity, seems a crazy proposition to me. It sounds like nobility or feudalism, if people can just live off of interest completely passively.

These problems are not necessarily a bad thing. They can be good and desired. If you are so wealthy that you can afford to buy more cars than you need, and tinker with them for entertainment, then there's nothing wrong with that.

If everyone is so materially satisfied, that new investments are likely to lose money, then there's nothing wrong with that. We can afford to not be efficient.

Moreover, I think that when you have inflation specifically, that that is a period of rapid economic reorganization. The economy needs to have these cycles so that it can grow.

I think if we get too aggressive about raising rates, you aren't giving these cycles a chance to play out. You are trying to pre-empt the inflation, when it may be a process that needs to run its course, and it only makes sense to raise rates modestly after it has had a chance to correct a currency's value.

I think trying to compete on rate of return using short term thinking is very counterproductive and even destructive. It increases the cost of interest on the national debt. It increases wealth inequality. It doesn't allow the market processes of price correction to play out naturally. And a high nominal rate with high inflation feels like walking on a treadmill-- working really hard just to stay in the same spot.

I think this paradigm has been counterproductive and destructive for far too long. Public policy should not try to counteract or control the market determination of valuing currency. Markets price assets, including currency, in order to make corrections. If we try to counteract this process to quickly or aggressively, then these corrections become more expensive and longer.

I am not arguing for complete lassez faire or passiveness. Only that we need a balance for different kinds of interventions, supports, and restrictions. Instead of monetary restriction, sometimes we should let inflation happen so that it becomes a political issue that politicians can address by adjusting spending or tax policies.

If we always try to stop inflation before it's a political issue, then we are enabling the precise kind of political irresponsibility people are always complaining about. In this sense, accommodative monetary policy may be fixing inflation too fast, so we never address political issues. I don't think central banks can fix political and fiscal problems. And trying to cure inflation when it happens is just protecting politicians from consequences.

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u/Busy_Net_4756 — 2 days ago

The Unbreakable Case: Proving the Survival Trap with the Government’s Own Receipts

The institutional economic experts tell us everything is fine. When I first pointed out how the system works against the working class, the internet gatekeepers and critics immediately tried to dismiss it. They told me I was factually wrong. They said my charts were an unreliable hodgepodge and that I was "just putting a whole bunch of stuff together that didn't make sense." They pointed to their favorite top-down macro statistics—like nominal median income rising 40% over ten years or declining household debt-to-GDP ratios—to claim everything is stable.

So, I went and pulled their own official spreadsheets.

It turns out that when you look past the sanitized national numbers they use to protect the big banks, the government's own data proves my common-sense logic makes perfect sense. The critics claim these economic issues are disconnected, but the math shows they are deeply intertwined parts of a massive working-class crisis. When they try to fight back with their standard excuses, their own numbers trap them.

Fact 1: Inflation is an Outright Income Theft

The critics claim that "average real wages are growing" and beating inflation. That is an outright abuse of math. An average wage index is heavily skewed upward by top-tier executives and tech workers. If a CEO gets a $5 million bonus and a cashier gets a $0.50 raise, the "average" goes up on paper, but the cashier still can't afford to live. Look at the immediate reality on the latest official U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report:

  • Personal Income Growth: Only went up at an annualized 3.4%.
  • Essential Inflation (PCE Price Index): Spiked by a brutal 4.6%.

That 1.2% gap is a direct income deficit for anyone who spends their entire paycheck on survival. For the bottom half of families who spend 100% of their checks on inelastic necessities like groceries and rent, this gap means they are becoming mathematically poorer every single day.

Fact 2: Corporate Profit is a Direct Squeeze

Mainstream economists argue that record corporate windfalls are just a sign of "market efficiency" and that they help regular people through their 401(k) plans. This is a blatant lie. According to the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts, the wealthiest 10% of Americans own over 93% of all stocks and mutual funds. The top 1% alone hold more wealth than the entire middle class combined.

The BEA data confirms that annualized total U.S. corporate profits have spiked to an unprecedented $4.42 trillion. In just a single three-month window, corporate profits from current production exploded by an extra $74.4 billion. While the state actively revised regular consumer spending downward because families are completely running out of cash, they revised corporate windfalls upward. Massive companies hold a monopoly on survival goods. You cannot choose to opt out of eating or keeping the lights on, so they raise prices and make records off our struggle.

Fact 3: The Aggregate Debt Myth

The critics on Reddit try to fight back by saying that debt isn't a big deal because the "household debt-to-GDP ratio" is low, and that Americans hold "$150 trillion in assets". That is a luxury argument. The macro ratio looks "safe" to a bank because corporate balances are swollen, but the human ratio is at a breaking point.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the total national household debt burden has reached an all-time record of $18.8 trillion, with credit card balances alone hovering at $1.14 trillion. This averages out to an astronomical $151,252 in total debt for the average American household, with credit cards accounting for $11,153 of that strain.

This directly connects to why the credit scoring system is rigged. The private credit score bureaus actively penalize self-sufficiency, dropping your score if you try to live responsibly, completely cash-based, and debt-free. The system forces you into the banking grid because it needs you to carry balances to generate interest profit for lenders. You cannot offset a working-class family's real-world six-figure debt load with a tech billionaire's stock portfolio and call the country healthy.

Fact 4: The Corporate Landlord Playbook

The critics claim housing is a separate issue of simple supply and demand, but it follows the exact same corporate monopoly model. Private equity firms buy up entire blocks, outbidding local families with cash. They execute a predatory playbook: they refuse to renew leases, kick out long-term families, and make cheap cosmetic fixes—like a fresh coat of gray paint and cheap plastic flooring. These superficial upgrades cost them pennies but allow them to re-list the exact same apartments for astronomical rent increases. Worse, when the property requires actual structural repairs, these firms simply flip the building to a new corporate buyer for an inflated profit based on the jacked-up rent rolls. The new owner then hikes the rent again to cover their expensive loan, leaving tenants to absorb the cost of a broken system.

Even when the government passes laws pretending to help, like the new 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, it's just a corporate distraction. The law leaves massive loopholes for private equity to keep building permanent "rent-forever" suburban neighborhoods while completely abandoning renters. It includes zero rent caps, no price freezes, and no protections against predatory flipping. Even users on Reddit are pointing out that forcing Wall Street to sell their rental properties after 7 years just incentivizes them to squeeze tenants for short-term rent, flip the building, and pass the buck.

Fact 5: Automated Labor Squeeze & Government Hypocrisy

The institutional defenders claim that people leaving the labor force is just "demographics" and natural retirement. They try to isolate labor data from corporate policy, completely ignoring how corporations are actively using technology to hollow out the workforce. Independent corporate tracking data shows that 60% of companies fired humans in anticipation of AI automation before the technology was even fully deployed, sending tech layoffs up 83% year-over-year. Even professional networks like LinkedIn have been taken over by bots, with 62% of posts now being AI-generated.

The ultimate irony is that the same politicians who tell us to budget better are running the biggest debt scam in human history. The U.S. national debt has officially crossed $39.5 trillion, which breaks down to nearly $292,217 in national debt per household.

The failure of their top-down math is hitting a wall. While politicians promised their policies would trigger an economic boom, the government's own reports show U.S. GDP growth has slowed to a sluggish 1.5%. The system is stalling because working families have been entirely drained. Between a massive tariff regime that spiked effective import tax rates from 2.1% to 11.7% and ongoing global conflicts driving crude oil near $90 a barrel, regular people are paying an unpayable premium on gas, groceries, and basic goods. Yet, just like the big banks, major oil conglomerates are leveraging this exact pain to print record windfalls. They rewrite the policy rules to protect corporate balance sheets, while regular citizens are left to inherit the inflation.

Summary: The Unbreakable Defense

It all makes perfect sense when you stop looking at isolated spreadsheets and connect the dots. The inflation numbers, corporate banking windfalls, predatory housing flips, credit card spikes, and labor displacements are all part of the exact same machine. They use product substitution tricks and selective surveys that statistically omit the millions of workers struggling the most to manufacture optimistic numbers.

Common sense won from the start. The system isn't broken; it is working exactly how it was designed to—to protect the transaction and drain the citizen. Our leaders need to look past the sanitized comfort of macro averages, look at their own spreadsheets, and fix this survival trap before the floor drops entirely.

To be clear, a collapse or systemic chaos is not what I want to see happen—it is exactly what I want our leaders to prevent by finally standing up to the big banks and fixing this broken system before it is too late.

📊 OFFICIAL SOURCE VERIFICATION:

  • U.S. Corporate Profits, PCE Inflation (4.6%), & Personal Income (3.4%): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP & Corporate Profits Report, NIPA Tables 8 & 10.
  • Total Household Debt ($18.8T), Mortgages ($13.19T), & Car Loans ($1.69T): Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
  • Asset & Stock Concentration (Top 10% Ownership): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA).
  • U.S. National Debt ($39.5T): U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Debt to the Penny Ledger.
  • 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Framework: Bipartisan Policy Center Legislative Explainer.
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u/Life_Skill_7312 — 7 days ago
▲ 6 r/OutlawEconomics+3 crossposts

I think joint stock communities can be more libertarian than open border communities. Here's my reasoning and give me feedback.

Basically like cities and states in US. But instead of open border they have "membership". If you want to live here, you got to buy membership. People that aren't happy can sell membership first.

Say there are 2 cities

A and B

city A lower tax and legalize drugs

city B raise tax and criminalize drugs.

Now, if the cities have owners, or effective owners, then city A will be rich. They will attract smart programmers that make more money. More people will want to go to city A.

city B will be communism hell.

if a lot of people want to go to city A but not enough people want to sell, valuation of city A membership will go up till supply meet demand.

Everyone see ah city A is doing well.

They tend to mimic city A.

Whatever policies work, whatever make people happy, make people want to come, will be chosen. Either it will be more libertarian, or some cities will be more libertarian and libertarians can just go there.

Now say A and B is open border. Anyone can get in without buying membership

city B choose communism and become poor. Then they just go to city A vote communism again. Everyone becomes a commies.

Libertarianism is not just another philosophy of right and wrong. It has a very strong scientific basis. Practice it and we all got richer.

Open border democracy is like squatter right. You come to my city and tada you can decide how to run it. Doesn't work in houses, doesn't work in cities too.

I ask ai for more prominent libertarian "support" that's partly agree with me

There isn't a major libertarian thinker who advocates exactly your proposal, but several prominent figures have argued for ideas that are quite close. Your model combines several existing strands of libertarian thought.

1. Hans-Hermann Hoppe (Probably the closest)

Hoppe argues that societies should be organized more like private property than public democracy.

He has written that privately owned communities would:

  • choose their own rules,
  • decide who can enter,
  • compete with other communities,
  • generally outperform democratic governments.

His book Democracy: The God That Failed argues that private ownership creates better incentives than political control.

However, Hoppe is more restrictive than your proposal. He generally favors owners having broad discretion over admission rather than tradable memberships.

2. David D. Friedman

Friedman is an anarcho-capitalist who argues that legal systems and governments could compete in markets.

His vision is that:

  • people choose among competing legal providers,
  • governments become service providers,
  • competition improves governance.

Your model of jurisdictions competing for residents fits well with his broader philosophy, although he doesn't specifically propose shareholder-owned cities.

3. Bryan Caplan

Caplan strongly supports:

  • free migration,
  • competition between jurisdictions,
  • "voting with your feet."

He likely would disagree with your membership requirement because he favors much more open migration, but he shares the idea that competition between governments disciplines bad policies.

4. Patri Friedman

Patri Friedman founded the seasteading movement.

His central idea is:

>

He has often argued that people should be able to "upgrade" governments the way they change companies or phones.

This is philosophically very close to your emphasis on jurisdictional competition.

5. Charles Tiebout (not a libertarian, but highly relevant)

Tiebout proposed what's now called the Tiebout model.

His idea is that people "vote with their feet":

  • Different towns offer different tax-and-service packages.
  • People move to the one they prefer.
  • Competition improves local government.

Your proposal is almost like a market version of Tiebout:

  • Instead of free movement alone, people buy and sell membership rights.
  • Membership prices become market signals about how desirable a jurisdiction is.

Is your idea novel?

I think the most distinctive feature is tradable memberships.

Many libertarians have proposed:

  • private cities,
  • charter cities,
  • competing governments,
  • contractual communities.

But I don't know of a prominent thinker who has fully developed the idea that:

  • every resident owns a transferable membership,
  • memberships are bought and sold in a market,
  • membership prices signal governance quality,
  • existing members benefit financially when governance improves.

That combination resembles a cross between:

  • a homeowners' association,
  • a corporation,
  • and a city.

So your idea isn't completely unprecedented—it builds on established libertarian themes—but the specific mechanism of share-like, tradable city memberships is not one I associate with a major canonical libertarian theory. If you developed it further, one of the first questions you'd need to address is how the initial memberships are allocated and how future population growth is handled without creating artificial scarcity. Those design choices would have major implications for fairness, affordability, and incentives.

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u/Few_Needleworker8744 — 10 days ago
▲ 4 r/OutlawEconomics+2 crossposts

I think something like Lanfang Kongsi is compatible with Anarcho Capitalism and can work

>​The kongsis of West Borneo essentially tried to prove that you could run a self-contained, stateless, free-market enterprise zone based on voluntary association, shared labor, and direct trade. For a long time, it worked brilliantly. But they ran into an immutable law of traditional statecraft: states do not tolerate tax havens or economic actors they cannot control.

>​When your business model relies on bypassing tariffs, ignoring state monopolies, and trading with foreign rivals without kicking money upstairs to a central government, you aren't just a competitor—you are an existential threat to the state's monopoly on power and revenue.

>​The Dutch didn't march into West Borneo because the kongsis were violent criminals; they marched in precisely because the kongsis were successfully demonstrating that you could thrive entirely outside the Dutch imperial machine. In the eyes of an empire, peaceful, independent prosperity without taxation is the ultimate subversion.

How libertarian it is? Well. It's compatible with anarcho capitalism.

How can a democratic republic is compatible with anarcho capitalism.

It's territory is a private land. You can govern the land you own.

It turns government into landlord.

What? Do all private property has to have a government on top of it? Well Lanfang kongsi try to have government on top of it. It applies to be vassal of Qing, dutches, etc. But fail.

So the kongsis got licenses from local sultanate. However, they do not call cops if things go wrong. They defend themselves. How do one rich dude protect himself from his own workers?

This is where the management is brilliant.

They share workers share. Shareholders can vote. Basically it's democratic republic. First one in south east Asia. And moreover it's moldbugian.

The deal is probably similar with early democratic city states. Men can be drafted, but they can vote. Except that they can do more than vote. They are actually shareholders that got dividend. Not sure if the share or fen is tradeable.

So basically the land is owned by a kongsi/corporation, whose share is owned mainly by many workers that live there.

They allied with local natives. Their main enemies, before the dutch was taikong kongsi. So lanfang kongsi is an enthostate for Hakka Chinese, and their enemies are Hokkian chinese. We, ugh, I mean they because I think I am hokkian, must have look sufficiently difference.

A bit racist, but it's more like ethnist, or languageist, or dialecist. Something we may or may not want to copy. One reason why they each can be defeated by the dutch more easily.

What? It's like shareholders voting Elon for Tesla or Space x

In any case, their incentives is like owners.

The people's interests is aligned with the kongsi's profit and land value.

The war with dutch happened much latter after 100 years of prosperous life. So it's not easily defeated like republic of Minerva.

Also they're effectively tax haven. That's why the dutch want to conquer them so much.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kongsi_republics

I am thinking of having georgian kongsis as a stepping stone toward more capitalism.

u/Few_Needleworker8744 — 13 days ago