r/Palantir_Investors

SELL PLTR TODAY

I’m very bullish on PLTR, but there’s one thing I think we should be more careful about when discussing new contracts.
The headline number isn’t necessarily the economic value Palantir has already secured.
A huge government award can include multiple years, optional extensions and funding that depends on agencies actually exercising those options.
In other words:
$1B contract ceiling ≠ $1B backlog ≠ $1B guaranteed revenue.
That distinction matters more now because Palantir is reaching a scale where enormous contract announcements are becoming part of the bull narrative.
And ironically, I don’t think we even need to exaggerate them.
Revenue just grew 93% YoY.
US commercial grew 149%.
US government grew 90%.
The underlying business is already ridiculous.
I’d actually rather see us evaluate contracts based on:
• initial committed value
• duration
• optional vs funded portions
• expected annual revenue
• expansion potential
• strategic importance of the deployment
A $200M deployment that becomes deeply embedded inside an agency could ultimately be more valuable than a flashy $1B contract ceiling that never gets fully exercised.
Maybe the next level of PLTR analysis isn’t asking:
“How big was the contract?”
It’s asking:
“How much of it is real today and what can it become?”

Everyone talks about Palantir's contract growth, but the filings make the headline deal values a bit less straightforward.

Palantir says customer contracts commonly run one to five years, but many include termination provisions. Government customers can terminate contracts and may simply choose not to exercise future options. So when a large multi year award gets announced, the full headline value shouldn't automatically be treated like locked future revenue.

There is also some concentration underneath the growth. Palantir's top three customers represented 15% of Q1 revenue, and one customer represented 31% of accounts receivable at the end of March.

The operating performance is obviously strong enough that this isn't some fatal issue. I just think contract quality matters more when the valuation assumes years of very durable growth.

The other number I'm watching is stock comp. Q1 stock based compensation was $201.6m, shares outstanding still moved from 2.391b at year end to 2.397b in March, and Palantir terminated its $1b repurchase program in January.

So when people model the next few years, how much discount are you actually applying to announced contract value for termination rights and unexercised options?

I keep seeing people asking whether Palantir could become the next member of Big Tech.
But I’m starting to think that’s the wrong comparison.
Google built search.
Meta built social networks.
Amazon built commerce + cloud.
Microsoft built the enterprise software stack.
Palantir is building something much harder to categorize.
It’s sitting between enterprise software, AI, defense, intelligence and industrial infrastructure.
And that’s what makes the long-term thesis interesting to me.
AIP inside companies.
Gotham inside governments.
Maven inside the military.
Foundry inside industrial operations.
If Palantir keeps expanding across those layers, the endgame isn’t simply “a very successful software company.”
It starts looking more like an operating layer connecting AI to real-world institutions.
And that creates a weird possibility:
Maybe we’re trying to value a future category of company using comparisons that were built for the previous generation of tech.
Obviously, there’s a huge risk in thinking this way. “This company is different” is probably one of the most expensive sentences in investing history.
But with revenue growing 93% YoY and US commercial revenue up 149%, I think the question is becoming legitimate.
Does Palantir eventually become another Big Tech company — or could it become something structurally different from Big Tech altogether?

Serious question for long-term PLTR holders.
Forget the daily price action for a second.
Palantir can keep growing government revenue, expanding AIP, winning commercial customers and becoming more deeply embedded in defense.
Let’s assume the fundamental bull case basically works.
At what valuation would you still sell?
I feel like most PLTR discussions focus on what could make the company fail: competition, slowing growth, government exposure, execution, etc.
But there’s another risk that’s harder to discuss when you love the company:
The company can be right and the stock can still become too expensive.
Personally, I think that’s one of the most interesting things about PLTR right now. The debate isn’t simply “is Palantir a great company?” anymore.
It’s how much future success investors should be willing to pay for today.
So for people holding until 2030 or beyond:
Do you actually have a valuation or price where you’d reduce your position?
Or would you keep holding as long as revenue growth and execution remain strong, regardless of the multiple?

A lot of the discussion around ARM today centers on its ~18% China revenue exposure (mostly royalty revenue through licensees like Samsung and SK Hynix). Ran the EPS sensitivity instead of just looking at the headline percentage: a 10% cut to that China revenue only moves EPS by about $0.01. The royalty/licensing model has enough operating leverage that revenue shocks don't translate 1:1 into earnings hits.

HPE was up almost identically (+10.0%) the same session, which points more toward broad tech/infra rotation than an ARM-specific catalyst. The AI infrastructure and custom silicon design-win narrative ("physical AI buildout" robotics, edge, data centers) is getting cited as the underlying driver.

Full writeup: https://metricshour.com/briefs/2026-07-10/

Curious if others are seeing the same EPS math or reading the exposure risk differently.

An internal Defense Department memo reportedly directs as much as $244M toward Palantir services through 2028.
The dollar amount itself isn’t what I find most interesting.
It’s the direction of travel.
Maven has already been pushed toward becoming a core military AI system, and Palantir keeps embedding itself deeper into the software layer connecting data, targeting, logistics and decision-making.
That creates a pretty interesting bull/bear paradox.
Bull case: every additional deployment increases institutional knowledge, integrations and switching costs. Palantir becomes less like another defense contractor and more like infrastructure.
Bear case: the deeper Palantir gets embedded, the more political scrutiny it attracts especially when contracts involve limited competition.
For shareholders, I think this may eventually matter more than individual contract announcements.
The question becomes:
At what point does Palantir’s position inside the DoD become a genuine structural moat rather than simply a collection of very large contracts?

PLTR is working closely with the department of war and the U.S. government. And it is an American company.

Why would any other country let PLTR handle anything related to their national security and risk exposing it to the U.S. governement?

I believe PLTR will have hard time getting other countries' government contracts in the future, therefore their presense will be isolated only in the U.S.

On parle énormément du prix de $PLTR.
Mais plus je creuse le dossier, plus je pense que le risque le plus intéressant est ailleurs : l’exécution.
Palantir est maintenant attendu sur plusieurs fronts en même temps :
→ continuer l’accélération du commercial US
→ convertir AIP en contrats toujours plus importants
→ conserver son avance dans la défense
→ maintenir des marges très élevées
→ gérer une croissance devenue énorme sans perdre en efficacité
Et surtout, continuer à convaincre le marché que cette croissance peut durer plusieurs années.
Le problème, c’est qu’à mesure que Palantir grossit, maintenir ce niveau d’exécution devient mécaniquement plus difficile.
Même Palantir reconnaît dans ses documents réglementaires les risques liés aux budgets gouvernementaux, à la concurrence sur les appels d’offres et aux changements de politique d’achat de l’État américain.
Je reste bullish.
Mais je pense que la prochaine étape intéressante pour PLTR n’est plus de prouver que son logiciel fonctionne.
C’est de prouver que son modèle peut fonctionner à cette échelle.
À votre avis, quel sera le premier vrai plafond de Palantir : la concurrence, la croissance, les contrats gouvernementaux… ou aucun des trois ?

Hey folks what do you think on a posible stock split 4-1 5-1 or 10-1 lógical window: Q3 2026 earnings (November), If pltr trades abobe 200$ for a while and Consolidated.

Karp has historically been indifferent to the nominal share price publicly — wouldn’t rule out them doing nothing again, same as last year

https://preview.redd.it/fehpyj4by5jh1.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=f75ae8032c82baca8941efe57adb7f5dc1741d41