ONDS Short Squeeze Potential with Earnings Catalyst
Firstly, thanks to SolidReporter8229 whos thread got my attention and encouraged me to take a deeper look at this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Shortsqueeze/comments/1vlxysy/ondas_earnings_and_potential_short_squeeze/
TLDR: Shorts are likely underwater already and with Earnings tomorrow and numerous tailwinds it might have legs to rip so is worth keeping an eye on.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and am presently in the hole with a load of SNDK, MU and WDC shares so invest at your own risk.
In terms of the background:
Friday 17th July 2026 - Wed 22nd July 2026 saw a huge increase in short sale volume
This coincided with it hitting a bottom on $6.22 on Friday 17th July and rebounding to $7.66 on Tuesday 21st July. It was the 21st that saw the peak in short sale activity with 117m shares sold short on that day (note: this is not net positions).
As you can see it hit a higher low and continued to climb to reclaim its EMAs to its current price of $9.74.
The big question is 'Are the shorts still in?' and I think the answer to that is 'Yes'.
From the first chart it looks as though they pressed into the bounce with spikes on the 5th and 10th August. This has left virtually no shares left to borrow.
Cost to borrow rose to 20% albeit then falling to around 10%.
Fintel estimates that 44% of the float is shorted https://fintel.io/ss/us/onds
In term of Catalysts:
- Earnings are due tomorrow.
- A (hopefully) benign CPI print today.
- Drones are currently a hot sector with DRNZ up 17.5% this month
- Emerging defence tailwinds thanks to Trump spaffing a load of expensive munitions at Iran and then losing interest entirely.
- Some great earnings yesterday (LITE, SMCI, CRWV) gave tech a boost
- Bull Flags forming on both the Daily S&P500 and Nasdaq suggest breakouts are looming
- It's high beta and will move quick
In terms of positioning:
Call / Put ratio is a very postive 5.88 for OPEX this Friday (14th August), but there's a hefty Call/Put Gamma wall at $10. If that breaks, the road is more open.
A whale made a big options bet on ONDS at the end of last week:
One other thing in ONDS's favour is that it's profitable which is rare for squeeze candidates and it's far from a beaten down stock. It smashed its earnings in May and whilst there are no guarentees, a good print is the best possible catalyst.
As for me? I like the stock and will hold anyway if a squeeze doesn't materialise. If it does materialise I'll sell and then buy back in once it dips.