u/SolidReporter8229

Firstly, thanks to SolidReporter8229 whos thread got my attention and encouraged me to take a deeper look at this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Shortsqueeze/comments/1vlxysy/ondas_earnings_and_potential_short_squeeze/

TLDR: Shorts are likely underwater already and with Earnings tomorrow and numerous tailwinds it might have legs to rip so is worth keeping an eye on.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and am presently in the hole with a load of SNDK, MU and WDC shares so invest at your own risk.

In terms of the background:

Friday 17th July 2026 - Wed 22nd July 2026 saw a huge increase in short sale volume

https://preview.redd.it/kfj4utsndxih1.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=cea0b06231f8a59c23915cb47de0f2bcf7d293b3

This coincided with it hitting a bottom on $6.22 on Friday 17th July and rebounding to $7.66 on Tuesday 21st July. It was the 21st that saw the peak in short sale activity with 117m shares sold short on that day (note: this is not net positions).

As you can see it hit a higher low and continued to climb to reclaim its EMAs to its current price of $9.74.

https://preview.redd.it/4z432gnpdxih1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=cef3e95e77fbdc62061699c0d5a1a65206fb13f4

The big question is 'Are the shorts still in?' and I think the answer to that is 'Yes'.

From the first chart it looks as though they pressed into the bounce with spikes on the 5th and 10th August. This has left virtually no shares left to borrow.

https://preview.redd.it/fen6zp9rdxih1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=3029f5a046fe0c4c539cedbe98320058af094d0a

https://preview.redd.it/n5cxoc0sdxih1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b1a189c779d80986b7885cc3320895f56c106a1

Cost to borrow rose to 20% albeit then falling to around 10%.

Fintel estimates that 44% of the float is shorted https://fintel.io/ss/us/onds

In term of Catalysts:

• Earnings are due tomorrow.
• A (hopefully) benign CPI print today.
• Drones are currently a hot sector with DRNZ up 17.5% this month
• Emerging defence tailwinds thanks to Trump spaffing a load of expensive munitions at Iran and then losing interest entirely.
• Some great earnings yesterday (LITE, SMCI, CRWV) gave tech a boost
• Bull Flags forming on both the Daily S&P500 and Nasdaq suggest breakouts are looming
• It's high beta and will move quick

In terms of positioning:

Call / Put ratio is a very postive 5.88 for OPEX this Friday (14th August), but there's a hefty Call/Put Gamma wall at $10. If that breaks, the road is more open.

https://preview.redd.it/xac82ngydxih1.png?width=882&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d2f1f7c5d1b8ce73b3601c93007e502d7568edc

A whale made a big options bet on ONDS at the end of last week:

https://preview.redd.it/iytn08m3exih1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=bad6da20e0deb191aa3d811431fed3f97558ad5c

One other thing in ONDS's favour is that it's profitable which is rare for squeeze candidates and it's far from a beaten down stock. It smashed its earnings in May and whilst there are no guarentees, a good print is the best possible catalyst.

As for me? I like the stock and will hold anyway if a squeeze doesn't materialise. If it does materialise I'll sell and then buy back in once it dips.

Cool counter drone tech video I stumbled on

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DbkMHo8jLwc/?igsh=MWQ4NnJsMW9hbWhtNQ==

Black sky is among the top space plays currently as it is trading roughly 45% undervalued.

Cash, restricted cash and short-term investments: $117.5 million at the end of Q1 2026.
Q1 capital expenditures were about $15.8 million, largely to expand the Gen-3 satellite constellation.
Despite investing heavily, the company has maintained a sizable cash cushion and has not been burning cash at the rate many space companies have.

Strong government and defense customer base.
Backlog reached about $345 million at the end of 2025.
Gen-3 satellites command higher margins than earlier generations.
AI-powered geospatial intelligence is a fast-growing market.

BlackSky has reached positive adjusted EBITDA over full-year 2025 and expects a much stronger 2026.
Management recently raised 2026 guidance to:
Revenue: $130–150 million
Adjusted EBITDA: $12–24 million

Average target: roughly $36–40
High target: $50
Low target: around $26–29

July 22 (Reuters) - Japan's Renesas (6723.T)
sued rival chipmaker Navitas (NVTS.O) in California federal court on Wednesday, claiming the company poached its employees to steal trade ‌secrets for developing next-generation semiconductor chips that power AI data centers.
Renesas alleged in its lawsuit that California-based Navitas' CEO Christopher Allexandre and executive Felicia Cheng stole confidential Renesas information for Navitas related to gallium nitride (GaN)-based chips, which it said are "rapidly replacing" silicon chips in data centers.

"Within a ⁠short period of time after Allexandre assumed the role of CEO, Navitas announced a new '2.0' strategy that directly mirrored Renesas’s confidential plans — targeting the same customers, the same technologies, and the same market opportunities reflected in the stolen materials," Renesas said in its complaint.
Spokespeople for Navitas did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the complaint. A Renesas spokesperson declined to comment.

The complaint said that Allexandre and Cheng took confidential PowerPoint presentations to ‌Navitas ⁠that contained Renesas trade secrets.
"Any Renesas competitor (like Navitas) could use the information in these presentations to engineer the same secret product specifications Renesas has designed, knowing Renesas’s timelines, to beat Renesas to market to steal billion-dollar contracts," the lawsuit said.

Renesas ⁠said the global market for GaN chips is expected to grow from $355 million in 2024 to $3 billion by 2030, largely powered by the rapid growth of AI-powered technology.
Renesas ⁠asked the court for an unspecified amount of monetary damages and an order blocking Navitas from misusing its secrets.
The case is Renesas Electronics Corp ⁠v. Navitas Semiconductor USA Inc, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, No. 5:26-cv-07573.”

After shorting all month I am re-opening my position. NVTS is getting sued up the wazoo and there’s no telling what’s about it to happen. With Jane street hedging on their short position this should be interesting.

I’ve got this funny feeling ONDS and KTOS are about to start picking up. Just sayin… NFA

Shorting VEEE average $27.26. Borrow rate is a bit high on this one but I expect to make out +40%

Sell off after the most recent pump should be finishing soon. I’ll be adding a few positions and posting them here. For starters, I’ll be adding CPSH around the $4.25-$4.50 range.

With the announcement of their unified system of systems integration and the release of the iron arrow, exciting things are quickly executing at Ondas. Check out this systems of systems video showcasing their new “shahed killer”!