Almost 90 cents soon 1$ SUIG
Might have posted the bottom last week who knows either way we moving back towards the upside 🙏
u/Gonky69 — 1 day ago
r/StockTradingIdeas
Looking for intersted user to test a trading strategy tool
Hello everyone,
For the past year I was building and testing a platfrom to help me with automating most of the work on finding trade setups, as a part time trader, I didn't have time to watch charts most of the days, so I wanted something to build logic once, back test for validation, then assign to tickers and it will keep watching till conditions are met then send me a notification to your phone. Been using it personally for couple of month and I thought if it worked for me it must works for others, I launched it to public few days ago, but since this is a niche market it was difficult to get signups, so I was hoping that there will be some I terested users in this community to help testing, offcourse I'm going to give them pro plan to for testing so if any body interested please dm me.
Thanks,
Ahmed
Founder StratOwl
u/StratOwl — 1 day ago
Elon says memory is the bottleneck and someone just took $1.03M to bet Micron won't sit still
MU trade card · OptionWhales daily thesis
The consensus on Micron has a celebrity attached to it. On the SpaceX earnings call of August 4, per 24/7 Wall St. on August 17 (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/17/elon-musks-5-word-statement-should-have-every-micron-investor-paying-attention/), Elon Musk named memory rather than power or GPUs as the ceiling on his compute buildout, citing demand growing 200% a year against 20% supply growth. At 10:52:47 ET a 680-contract January 15, 2027 put vertical printed in one burst into that story, $50 wide and wrapped around spot at $943, for a net credit of $1,028,500. A credit on a put vertical can only come from writing the higher strike, so the $1,000 put is the sold side. Net delta across the legs lands near flat and the two vegas cancel, which leaves the $50 band between the strikes as the exposure rather than any direction.
The bull case here is not soft. Micron's fiscal Q3 release in June carried record free cash flow, HBM3E and HBM4 booked through 2027 with demand into 2028, and $22B of strategic customer agreements including $18B in cash deposits. Against that, TrendForce's July survey (via Tom's Hardware, July 4: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/memory-price-surge-begins-to-cool-as-consumers-hit-affordability-limit-ai-demand-still-keeps-dram-and-nand-prices-climbing-through-q3-2026) has conventional DRAM contract prices up 13% to 18% in Q3, a marked cooling from prior quarters, with Q4 penciled at 3% to 8%. Both of those are facts about the memory cycle and the whole name, not about this order.
The two legs, same second, matched size:
- Sold 340 January 15, 2027 $1,000 puts at $191.35 a share, 69.7% IV, delta -0.45
- Bought 340 January 15, 2027 $950 puts at $161.10 a share, 69.2% IV, delta -0.40
That is 150 days out, with the lower strike sitting $7 above a $943 spot, so the whole $50 corridor is at or just above the money. The written strike carried 3,168 contracts of prior-day open interest and the bought strike 1,497, both far larger than the 340 done on each leg, so whether this opens new exposure or unwinds existing exposure is not determinable here. Our leg-signing confidence on the individual sides is weak on its own; the $1.0M credit is what pins the net shape.
For this to be an attractive structure standalone, you would want vol at 70% five months out to be rich relative to how a $943 stock actually travels through a $50 window, and you would want the pricing deceleration TrendForce sketches for Q4 to matter less to the path than the booked-through-2027 order book suggests. Collecting $30.25 of a $50 width is roughly 60% of the distance, which is aggressive pricing for a corridor straddling spot. The competing reading is that both strikes already had thousands of contracts open, and a matched 340x340 burst inside that is as consistent with adjusting an existing January book as with a fresh position. I lean to the second, mostly because of the strike selection: someone building this from scratch has the whole chain and picked the two strikes with prior interest.
My read is that this position is comfortable with the memory cycle staying loud in either direction and uncomfortable with a slow drift that parks the stock inside the corridor. Micron's next quarterly report is estimated for September 29 per TipRanks, and a December print lands before expiry too, so two earnings and two quarters of DRAM contract data sit inside the contract's life. What would change the regime by January is supply arriving: SK Hynix, which Tech Times put at 56% of global HBM revenue in Q1 2026, approved new capacity at board level in August.
*Educational content only, not investment advice.*
u/PassNew8148 — 2 days ago
$ANET - Stock analysis July 11
Hey everyone, here is your daily sentiment and technical breakdown for $ANET.
📊 Overall Sentiment: 94.1 (BULLISH+) 🟢
Market sentiment remains extremely strong and firmly in the "Bullish+" territory today, creeping up slightly from yesterday's close.
🔍 Sentiment Breakdown
The overall score is driven by media, social and technical analysis. Here is how they stack up right now
What are your thoughts on $ANET at these levels?
u/Routine_Bat6675 — 2 days ago
AI quantitative analysis of r/valueinvesting performance as a stock screener
I tested whether this sub actually helps you find good stocks. Mostly it doesn’t.
I pulled every post and comment from r/ValueInvesting (2010–2026: 62,000 posts,
360,000 comments), extracted every company mentioned, and tracked what those
stocks did over the following 3 and 5 years.
To make it a fair test, I compared each mentioned stock against stocks that
weren’t mentioned — matched for company size and started on the same date.
That matters, because this sub talks mostly about large companies, and large
companies behaved differently from small ones over this period. Without that
adjustment you just end up measuring “big US stocks did well,” which we know.
I used 2019–2021 picks, because those are the newest ones with 5 years of
results. 193 stocks, each written about by at least 4 different people.
What I found
The typical pick made money — but didn’t beat the index.
Median return over 5 years was +62%, versus +29% for a random unmentioned
stock. So better than picking blind. But only 35% of picks beat the S&P 500,
and for companies that size you’d have expected ~42%. Beating a coin flip isn’t
the bar; beating the index is.
Mentioned stocks were about twice as likely to collapse.
9.8% of them lost 70%+ over 5 years, against 4.8% for similar-sized stocks that
nobody here mentioned. This is the one result that’s statistically solid.
The sub finds 3-baggers at roughly the rate you’d expect by chance.
15% of picks tripled, vs 8.5% expected for that size mix. Sounds good, but the
error bars overlap with “no difference.” Can’t call it a signal.
We show up late. Of the stocks that had a big run, 78% were first discussed
after the run had already started — a median of 225 days after the bottom.
We mention losers slightly more than winners. Of the stocks that tripled, we’d
discussed 40%. Of the ones that collapsed, 47%.
“But surely the most-discussed names were good?”
That was my best hypothesis too, and it doesn’t survive.
The 25 most-discussed stocks did fine — 24% tripled, none collapsed. But buying
the 25 largest US stocks gave the same 24%, the same rate of beating the S&P,
and the 25 largest we never discussed actually returned more (+102% vs +87%).
Even “no blowups” is a size effect: the biggest stocks nobody here mentioned also
had zero. You get that by buying large caps, not by reading Reddit.
One more thing worth knowing
In 2019 this sub mentioned 1.3% of US-listed stocks. In 2025 it was 41%.
As a filter, it’s getting weaker every year — a list of 2,500 names isn’t a
shortlist.
What this doesn’t prove
• No sentiment analysis. “Is X a value trap?” was counted the same as “I’m
buying X.” That’s the biggest gap, and it could genuinely change things.
• Small sample. 193 stocks. Some comparisons come down to 25 names.
• US-listed only, and one specific period (2019–21 entries, measured through
2026).
• Nothing about whether reading here is worthwhile. Learning how people
reason, finding the bear case on something you own, seeing an industry
explained — none of that is tested here, and none of it is contradicted.
What’s tested is narrow: does “it got mentioned here” make a stock more likely
to be a winner? Best answer I can give is no, and it makes it somewhat more
likely to be a disaster.
Happy to be told what I got wrong.
Edit: since you guys seem interested I made the repository public. It contains methodology and dataset. Happy to get you started and excited to see where you take this next.
Link: https://github.com/RedDawe/subreddit-as-a-service
Edit 2: A lot of people are coming back to the sentiment analysis. I think it would be interesting if someone did that and I might get to that at some point, but probably not.
The reason why I don’t consider it important is because the analysis of whether this sub can be used as a signal trading tool was secondary. My main question I wanted to answer was whether it is a good starting point for starting my own analysis. Ie alternative to a stock screener. Or alternative to Peter Lynch’s notice good products around you in real life.
This question was basically answered as no because in 2025 this sub mentioned 40%+ of all US stocks. And looking just at the popular posts didn’t work either as described above. So the way I’m using this sub - might be useful, but not as a screener.
Definitely go ahead with sentiment analysis if you please, I’m just explaining my position and where I come from.
u/MasterConsideration5 — 3 days ago
ETOR, insanely trading at PE of ~8.5 and EV/EVITDA ~3.0
This company (ETOR) is growing user accounts at double digit rate and expanding into US market. A lot of cash on the balance sheet and no debt. Disciplined approach to growth. App has undergone a major beneficial overhaul and is now awesome. It has tools and social investing information integrated right into it that are well ahead of the curve. Irrational price drop recently and just a clear opportunity ahead. Buffered downside because it trades down another 50% it would be valued as less than the net cash on hand, yet a huge upside if growth continues and/or if crypto starts an upcycle. The business itself is not very dependent on crypto at this point, but I think the market still perceives it that way. It’s a double from here if it even just corrects to current fair value. Factor in growth and catalysts and it could be 3x or even 4x in the next 1-3 years. Net earnings and cash flow are positive and growing. If you can read income statements, balance sheets, and statements of cash flows, take a look at theirs.
u/mr_marcus_91 — 2 days ago
$NVDA: $270K debit buys a $5-wide 240/245 call corridor nine days before earnings
NVDA trade card · OptionWhales daily thesis
Someone Spent $270,000 to Buy a Five-Dollar-Wide Slice of Nvidia's Upside
At 11:17:01 ET on August 17, with NVDA trading at $227.27, two option orders printed in the same second, in matched size: 1,500 November 20, 2026 $240 calls bought at roughly $13.90 a share, and 1,500 of the $245 calls of the same expiry sold at roughly $12.10. Gross premium across both legs came to $3.9 million. The cash that actually left the account was $270,000 — $1.80 per share on a structure five dollars wide.
That last sentence is the whole trade. This was not a purchase of calls. It was the purchase of a bounded corridor: the buyer acquired exposure that begins at $240, about 5.6% above where the stock was trading, and stops dead at $245, about 7.8% above. Everything above $245 was sold away to help pay for it. The classifier flags the two legs as one package with 90% confidence, inferred from identical size and same-second execution. We cannot prove one account owns both — that inference is from the tape, not from a filing.
The Debit Tells Us Which Leg Was Which
Our per-leg buyer/seller tagging on this print is weak — 10% confidence on each side, which is barely better than a coin flip. So the orientation is not established by the tape. It is established by arithmetic. The package cost money rather than paying money, and a 240/245 call vertical only produces a net debit in one configuration: long the lower strike, short the higher one. Had the legs been reversed, the same two prices would have generated a $270,000 credit. They did not. The debit is the evidence.
The Volatility View Nets to Nothing, and So Does Most of the Direction
Both legs carry essentially the same implied volatility — 39.4% on the long leg, 39.3% on the short — and share the same November 20 expiry. Buying vol at one price and selling it at effectively the same price in the same month means the volatility exposures largely cancel. Whatever this position is, it is not a bet on Nvidia's option premiums getting richer or cheaper.
Direction is trimmed almost as hard. The long $240 call carries a delta of 0.452; the short $245 call, 0.411. Net, the package began life with about 0.04 of delta per spread — roughly 6,100 shares of stock-equivalent exposure, or about $1.4 million of directional footprint from $3.9 million of gross premium. The bias is upward, and that holds regardless of anything else in this article. But it is a deliberately small bias, bounded on both ends by design.
That is why the payload's "non-directional" intent label deserves scrutiny rather than repetition. A call debit spread leans bullish. What is unusual here is how little directional exposure the trader retained for the premium committed.
What We Cannot Determine, and Why That Matters
Whether this opened a new position or closed an old one is not determinable. The reason is specific: prior-day open interest is known for both contracts — 12,737 at the $240 strike, 9,078 at the $245 — and both figures dwarf the 1,500 lots traded. When existing interest is that much larger than the trade, the volume could have been created or extinguished inside it, and the open-interest print cannot distinguish. Zero percent of this package sits in legs that can be signed either way, well below the threshold we require to characterise a position.
The directional lean does not soften because of that. A bounded long-call structure is bullish-leaning whether it establishes a new view or unwinds an old one. What we cannot claim is motive. A hedge against a share position, a delta-neutral book, or a corporate exposure we cannot see would look identical on the tape.
Nine Days to Earnings, Ninety-Five to Expiry
Nvidia reports Q2 fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, after the close — nine sessions after this print. The expiry sits 95 days out, meaning the position spans that report and, on Nvidia's historical calendar, plausibly a second one in November; the Q3 date was not confirmed at the time of writing, so treat that as unresolved rather than assumed.
The day's discourse was about the durability of Nvidia's position against hyperscaler-designed silicon, framed by a Motley Fool piece published August 16 asking where each moat is strongest and what could weaken it. That is context, not causation. Nothing in the tape links this structure to that argument.
*This is analysis of publicly reported options activity, not investment advice. Options carry risk of total loss, and the intent behind any single trade is unknowable from public data.*
u/PassNew8148 — 3 days ago
🔍 GKOS - Stock analysis July 30
Hey everyone, here is daily analysis breakdown for GKOS.
📊 Overall Sentiment: 87 (BULLISH) 🟢
Market sentiment remains BULLISH and firmly in the "BULLISH+" territory.
🔍 Sentiment Breakdown
The overall score is driven by media, social and technical analysis. Short, medium, and long term getting momentum Here is how they stack up right now.
What are your thoughts on GKOS at these levels?
u/Routine_Bat6675 — 2 days ago
SUIG 2300 shares @AVG 1.26
Currently opened up market today and jumped to 84-85 cents per share i see eventually SUIG being above 1.50-2$ per share.
Stack up!
u/Gonky69 — 3 days ago
HBM - Stock analysis
Hey everyone, here is daily analysis breakdown for HBM.
📊 Overall Sentiment: 87 (BULLISH) 🟢
Market sentiment remains BULLISH and firmly in the "BULLISH+" territory.
🔍 Sentiment Breakdown
The overall score is driven by media, social and technical analysis. *Short term getting momentum*, *medium, and long term looks still bearish*. Here is how they stack up right now.
What are your thoughts on HBM at these levels?
u/Routine_Bat6675 — 3 days ago
ARM +10.3% today — the China exposure math is more interesting than the headline
A lot of the discussion around ARM today centers on its ~18% China revenue exposure (mostly royalty revenue through licensees like Samsung and SK Hynix). Ran the EPS sensitivity instead of just looking at the headline percentage: a 10% cut to that China revenue only moves EPS by about $0.01. The royalty/licensing model has enough operating leverage that revenue shocks don't translate 1:1 into earnings hits.
HPE was up almost identically (+10.0%) the same session, which points more toward broad tech/infra rotation than an ARM-specific catalyst. The AI infrastructure and custom silicon design-win narrative ("physical AI buildout" robotics, edge, data centers) is getting cited as the underlying driver.
Full writeup: https://metricshour.com/briefs/2026-07-10/
Curious if others are seeing the same EPS math or reading the exposure risk differently.
u/metricshour — 4 days ago
🚨 TOP DAILY STOCKS - July 22
These are the tickers i look today, based on social attention, media volume, technical analysis, and sentiment velocity over the last 24 hours.
https://www.sentimentick.com/app/ticker/MPWR
u/Routine_Bat6675 — 3 days ago
NTPC short-term trade idea – CMP ₹337, target ₹347 (~3% upside) by end of Sept 2026
reddit.comu/Op1n998 — 3 days ago
SCHD- the path to $1,000,000
Hi.
What do you think about this calculation :
The Path to $1,000,000 with $SCHD!
- Invest $100K in $SCHD.
- Activate DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)
- Each month, invest $400 more into $SCHD.
End of year 1: Your investment is worth $119k, generating $4.1k/year in dividends. You have contributed $104.4K out of pocket.
End of year 3: Your investment is worth $168k, generating $6k/year in dividends. You have contributed $114k out of pocket.
End of year 5: Your investment is worth $232k, generating $8.3k/year in dividends. You have contributed $123.6k out of pocket.
End of year 10: Your investment is worth $500k, producing $19k/year in dividends. You have contributed $147.6k out of pocke
End of year 15: Your investment is worth $1,040,000, producing $42k/year in dividends. You have contributed $171.6k out of pocket. •
Congratulations on your $1,000,000!
NOTE: This exercise uses historical $SCHD annual share appreciation of 11% and annual dividend growth rate of 12%.
$SCHD is a passively managed ETF that tracks the total return of the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index.
u/Iceman60462 — 7 days ago
🚨 TOP DAILY STOCKS - Aug 14
These are the tickers i look today, based on media catalysts, social attention and technical analysis over the last 24 hours.
u/Routine_Bat6675 — 6 days ago
Mobileye -> what's the game there?
Intel still has the biggest say in Mobileye.
CEO Professor Amnon Shashua stepping down (maybe he got forced out, but it's about time he goes).
The board is tasked to find a replacement.
Chairman Safroadu (ex-Intel, he left in April 2025), bought shares on 6th Aug
And the infamous Frank Yeary also acquire stakes on 30th July.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mbly/sec-filings
https://ir.mobileye.com/corporate-governance/board-of-directors
That brings me to the game for Mobileye. Obviously the company need a new CEO, new product offering or maybe investors with cash to move the stock price up.
Borrowing on Arm's presentation slide:
Nvidia captures the cloud and data-center in the early AI training game (hence it's $5T now) and clinging onto that place. They can struggle hold TSMC wafer allocation.
Other chip design (fabless player) will have tough time on the supply, since it's akin to a blockade on the Straits of Hormuz.
Apple captures the Edge AI (row) Iphones, Mac Mini, Macbook/Ipad with the highest profit margins by far (before Nvidia overtook them as the most valuable company).
Physical AI -> which is still up for grab. Any companies that can expand their presence there, will most likely benefit from higher/bigger market valuation (which is good if you have those shares/call options). And Intel have like a 70% stake in Mobileye.
Why? Because it's a market expansionary move, and expansion always see higher valuation if it comes with positive/high margins growth.
Intel Foundry makes the semiconductor that can work across the entire spectrum.
A good process node like Intel 18-AP or Intel 14A helps to win pockets of the physical AI segment.
So can the new incoming CEO of Mobileye leverage on Intel to bring business in the Physical AI space?
Intel do have some cash from the recent Equity Offering ($20 billion).
The new guy have to figure out the Physical AI play (which Mobileye already bet on.
Robotaxi and Robotics) and workout how best to leverage Intel's current momentum and resources.
Software layer, Intel Foundry, Altera's FPGA etc.
In January, they announced acquisition of Mentee Robotics, follow by offering Robotaxi business in US starting in 2027.
From a chart perspective, small tiny candles within a narrow band of late (consolidation at play??) and waiting for news/announcement to pop (i hope it's upwards, because Intel stands to benefit).
Maybe that ties in with the recent buys from the directors.
u/Primary_Olive_5444 — 6 days ago
Anyone following Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)? Small-cap air mobility stock trading under $1
Been digging into this one and have a small position, curious if anyone else has looked at it.
Surf Air Mobility runs small regional airline routes plus an on-demand private charter marketplace. They're also building an AI-powered software platform called SurfOS (built with Palantir) to run aviation operations, and separately working on tech to electrify small aircraft down the road.
Pros: Partnership with Palantir on the software side, just signed their first enterprise SurfOS contract (Wheels Up, up to $12M over 3 years), guiding toward revenue growth and narrowing losses this year, charter business growing fast.
Cons: Still unprofitable, received a NYSE non-compliance notice, dilution risk, electrification tech is still early and unproven,
Anyone else watching or holding this one?
u/itzkeoks — 8 days ago
EUR/AUD buy ( long )
Je vous partage mon opinion sur cette petite paire que j'affectionne de part sa volatilité.
Bos bullish confirmé en H1 - 45min nous avons donc comme attendue le retracement de ce Bos qui a mon sens viendra nettoyer l'inducement en attente avant de donner cours au vrai rallye haussier voici à mon sens ce qu'on pourrait voir se dessiner au cours des prochains jours ( petit swing )
u/Suspicious_Sweet_672 — 11 days ago