
r/ProfessorFinance

JPMorgan: Fertilizer disruptions + strong El Niño risk pushing global food inflation to ~5% in H1 2027
JPMorgan’s Nora Szentivanyi (report: “Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm”) projects global food inflation rising from 2.8% in H1 2026 to around 5% in H1 2027.
Main drivers:
- Middle East fertilizer supply (urea/ammonia) hit by Strait of Hormuz disruptions
- High probability of a “super” El Niño lasting into 2027
This raises farm input costs and potential yield pressure, especially in emerging markets. Not a guaranteed famine, but a credible risk of elevated food prices.
Source: Reuters
Cost of capital is dramatically higher for European firms compared to American, especially at smaller size
Credit card debt rises to $1.26 trillion, nearing all-time record
abcnews.comUS sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001
The US has paid the highest borrowing costs to sell 30-year bonds since 2001, as investors fret over the country’s mounting debt pile under Donald Trump’s administration as well as inflation that remains stubbornly high.
A $25bn Treasury auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday drew yields as high as 5.22 per cent, according to the US Treasury department. It marked the highest yield since the 5.52 per cent paid in August 2001, after which 30-year auctions were suspended for almost five years.
“All in all this is problematic for the Treasury. They have to fund the government at more expensive levels,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.
The bond sale comes on the heels of a $42bn auction for 10-year notes on Wednesday, which were sold at the highest yield since 2007.
The national debt — and the cost of borrowing — have roughly doubled over the past decade, fuelled by vast spending during the coronavirus pandemic. The government now spends more on servicing its debt than it does on national defence.
Trump returned to office vowing to bring America’s public finances under control, but nominal debt has since risen at its fastest rate outside of the Covid era, after the administration pushed through sweeping tax-cut legislation with the president’s so-called big, beautiful bill.
Debt held by the public outstripped GDP in the first quarter of 2026, according to government data analysed by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan watchdog, the national debt is on track to surpass its post-second world war peak of 106 per cent by the end of the decade and hit 120 per cent by 2036.
The fiscal factors have been compounded by concerns the Federal Reserve will struggle to control a bout of high inflation as an energy price surge triggered by the war in Iran exacerbates the price pressures created by tariffs and booming spending on AI infrastructure.
Did Patrick batemen (American phyco) create the modern finance bro daily routine
I’ve been thinking that the modern finance bro is basically Patrick Bateman minus the murdering.
Not necessarily in a bad way either, because I’m definitely guilty of half of it.
There’s this weird obsession now with having everything dialled in. Gym before work, protein-heavy diet, supplements lined up on the kitchen counter, sleep tracked religiously, nice suits, nice watch, good restaurants, skincare routine that would have been considered suspiciously advanced for a man 15 years ago.
Somewhere along the way, being good at your job in finance stopped being enough. Now you also need visible abs, perfect bloodwork, a tailored wardrobe and a resting heart rate of 48.
And I completely get the appeal. There’s something satisfying about trying to optimise every part of your life. Career, fitness, food, clothes, sleep. It all becomes one big performance review.
Which is why watching American Psycho now is quite funny.
Patrick Bateman was supposed to be an absurd exaggeration of the image-obsessed Wall Street guy.
Instead, 25 years later, half of us watched it and thought:
“Okay, obviously the murdering is a problem… but what moisturiser was he using?”
AI frenzy drives Chinese tech valuations to multiples of US peers
The average first-time homebuyer in the US is now 40. I dug into why, and the “BlackRock owns all the houses” story turns out to be wrong
Been going down a rabbit hole on why homeownership feels so out of reach right now, and the numbers are worse than I expected. A household needs roughly $107K to $123K a year to afford the median home. Actual median household income is about $84K. That’s not a small gap.
Few things that surprised me digging into it:
The home price to income ratio is now 5 to 1, nearly double the 2.6 that’s considered healthy. Not one of the top 50 metros clears that bar.
Mortgage rates were actually worse in 1985 (12.4% vs about 6.5% now). Monthly payments as a share of income were comparable back then. What’s changed is the size of the down payment relative to income.
The BlackRock thing is basically a myth. BlackRock doesn’t buy single family homes, that’s Blackstone, a different company with a similar name. All large institutional investors combined (1,000+ homes) own about 1% of US single family housing. It’s mostly small local landlords buying up homes, not Wall Street.
There’s an actual new federal law (21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, July 2026) banning large investors from buying more single family homes starting Jan 2027. First restriction of its kind.
I made a video walking through the full breakdown (rates, supply shortage, construction costs, the investor myth, and which states are still actually affordable).
https://youtu.be/t5ZOWQtNL-A?is=qGLbtaan-begZdS6
Curious what others here think is the biggest driver. I lean toward supply plus the down payment hurdle over rates themselves.
My opinion about AI bubble.
As evidence by Jacket man attempt to get the Wall Street to spend more than 7% of GDP on his goodies I thought I’m sharing what I thought about the fabled “AI bubble”:
I think it’s not because as St Powell said:
Big tech (especially Google) is a positive cash flow company.
What will happened if >7% GDP turns out to be too much is this:
Big tech and NVIDIA gonna assume big chuck of it, make a massive write off, the CEO (including leather jacket man) get absolutely purged, Hedge fund bid the bottom out of existence, use the accumulated share to put themself as a CEO, put big tech into austerity as brutal as Greeks one, cash in, and things continue on.
Tribute to the oldest America bull position in history
Building a grain flat in a middle of Iowa after civil war and the railroad isn’t even nowhere close to reach it.
Almost get liquidated on it’s ultra America bull and toil for years to make sure that those position isn’t liquidated at all.
Get kicked out of exchange and still find a way to hold on to its America bull position.
Literally build warship in Minnesota to be shipped downriver.
When faced with liquidity crunch position sold the fertilizer company instead of liquidating the America bull position.
Get proven after dozens financial crisis & Great Depression, two world war, one cold war and even greater number of “America is finished and in decline”.
Never let anyone (especially retail) to make a bid for even 5% after 160 years even though every single investment banker on planet earth keep spamming their email every single year.
Why is the world so dependant on USD?
The dollar has been challenged repeatedly. Why hasn’t another currency replaced it?
About autocut
The choice for baby boomer is either autocut/ this (adding 0 to the banknote) given that France already tax 50% on average and even commies like these guy admitted it.
[BlackRock] Navigating a Maturing Private Credit Market: Insight for Advisors
Private debt yield-to-maturity currently ~10% per Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, vs ~8% for HY bonds and ~7.5% for leveraged loans. The yield premium over public markets has compressed from 300-400bps historically to ~200bps. All three converged near 4% during the 2020-2021 zero-rate era before spiking post-2022. Credit stress concentrated in 2021-2022 vintage loans, which account for ~75% of recent foreclosure activity.
why are accountants still charging by the minute in 2026?
When market conditions get choppy, watching advisory fees pile up on an hourly rate is frustrating for any business owner.
Most traditional accounting and tax firms still stick to billing every phone call and email inquiry. But lately, more boutique practices, like Wardle Partners and similar regional outfits, are moving away from hourly rates and offering fixed-price packages instead. For clients trying to budget during volatile quarters, knowing the exact cost upfront makes a huge difference.
From an economic perspective, fixed pricing aligns incentives a lot better, but legacy firms seem really slow to adopt it.
Do you think hourly billing will eventually die out in advisory, or is percentage of AUM and hourly pricing just too profitable for big firms to give up?
Which investments are worth it and why?
Michael Saylor’s breakdown of how different assets have performed (economic value over the past ~6 years):
Cash? Economic value: –7%/yr
The US dollar has lost around 7% of its economic value every year for 100 years, as the price of scarce assets rises while the purchasing power of cash falls.
Bonds? Economic value: –1%/yr
Bonds returned around –1% a year over the past six years, which is why they are considered “a mistake” when they fail to keep up with currency debasement.
Housing? Economic value: +7%/yr
Real estate has returned around 6-7% a year, roughly keeping pace with currency debasement. The challenge is that taxes, insurance and maintenance can eat into those gains unless the property also produces income.
Gold? Economic value: +13%/yr
Gold returned around 12-13% a year over the past six years, and its scarcity is one reason it can preserve wealth better than cash.
S&P 500? Economic value: +15%/yr
The S&P 500 it returned around 15% a year over the past six years, and is seen as a simple way to invest without having to choose individual companies yourself.
Nasdaq / Tech Stocks? Economic value: +18%/yr
The Nasdaq returned around 18% a year over the past six years. Tech stocks are a stronger performer than the broader market, but with greater exposure to the fortunes of technology companies.
Bitcoin? Economic value: +33%/yr
Bitcoin returned around 33% a year over the past six years, outperforming every other asset in the comparison. It is seen as scarce digital capital because there can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin but it’s very volatile.
Does the 6-year window change anything for you?
Where would you rank these assets yourself and which of these would you actually put money into right now?
To fix education, fix the economy first
The standard explanation for Britain's declining graduate wage premium is that higher education expanded too fast and too far. But similar expansions elsewhere have not produced the same outcome, writes John Burn-Murdoch.
Been reading people crash out over 30$ DoorDash order on X
Folks.
People are expensive (Tennessee McDonald is like 17-18$ per hour) in fact you better be careful what you wished for if you wish these part to be cheap.
Cars are expensive (the cheapest new one is still ~20k let alone the most sold out car in the US (burger panzer F-150)).
Fuel is expensive (15c per km assuming it’s 1 L/ 10km).
So of course DoorDash food cost 30$.
If you’re not earning 270-700k (and keep adjusted for inflation) your time isn’t expensive enough to order DoorDash.
Go out/ even better cook.
EDIT:
In fact these whole discourse angers me.
They want their DoorDash driver to live in extreme poverty because they think they’re too elite to pick up their own food/ cook for themself.
Who the fuck do they think they’re?