▲ 5 r/ProfessorGeopolitics+1 crossposts

Persistence

As everyone knows by now, the United States of America is celebrating its 250th anniversary - making it one of the oldest continuous governments under a single founding charter ever to exist in human history.

And for that, I think it’s fitting that its tribute for the 250th is about one of its greatest virtues - one that took root in one of the very reasons Homo sapiens came to dominate the planet for pretty much 12,026 years.

And that root is persistence hunting.
Homo sapiens isn’t the strongest predator. It’s slow, fragile, and weak. But unlike the other apex predators it outlived - including one practically designed to hunt it - it has several advantages:

  1. It’s bipedal, which frees its hands to manipulate objects better than any other terrestrial animal.
  2. It has one of the largest brain-to-body-weight ratios of any terrestrial species.
  3. It traded the protection of body hair against blood-sucking parasites for the ability to cool itself better than almost any other animal.

Combined, those enable a hunting technique almost no other predator can replicate:
Persistence hunting.

It doesn’t matter if an antelope outruns it. Every time the antelope stops to cool down, it spots a human hunter nearby and is forced to run again - until its own organs overheat and it simply shuts down, letting the hunters close in for the kill.

It wasn’t easy, though. It required a level of planning and coordination no other predator (except wolves) possessed, because a single hunter out of position could ruin hours of chase.
Now here’s where we come back to the United States of America’s 250th anniversary.

It’s still the same country, with a capital settled by compromise between Virginia and Maryland - only the dynasties that signed the Declaration are largely extinct.

It’s still the same Constitution, amended 27 times in 250 years, with the last substantive amendment over half a century ago.
The currency is still the same US dollar - bills that have never had to drop a single zero in 250 years.
The military comes and goes, sure, but West Point has stood for 224 years and Annapolis for 181.
It’s still the same nine justices of the Supreme Court and the same House–Senate legislature.
It’s even largely the same first-past-the-post voting system.
It’s still largely the same Star-Spangled Banner.
Now here’s the thing.

It survived Pax Britannica - one could even argue its first president helped make Pax Britannica possible by assaulting a fort in the Western Hemisphere back when he was still a redcoat colonel.
It absolutely survived the Civil War, and no amount of Southern nostalgia can change that.
It absolutely survived the “thousand-year Reich” and the “empire of the rising sun.”
It absolutely survived the largest land army in modern history at nuclear parity - much to the chagrin of a certain linguistics professor with daddy issues.

It survived a flat-out rebel sympathizer as president, deep penetration by hostile agents, and it absolutely survived a buffoon incarnate.
Which begs the question, for those who don’t get it: How?
For me, it’s not just the United States of America.
It’s something deeper, something uniquely English:
Robustness.

It’s designed for the eventuality of idiocracy - where the dumbest monkey that ever lived holds the power to rule, presiding over a bunch of monkeys who show up to Caleb Hammer’s studio, books in hand, to get called a dumb fuck.
It’s designed so no one can pull policy out of their ass without someone there to slap them back into place.
It’s designed, from the geography itself, so that no defeat is ever truly decisive.
It’s designed to be flexible enough that amendment is possible, but rigid enough that its antithesis never becomes the dominant interpretation of the Constitution.
Which is why the title of this post is “persistence.”
The United States doesn’t really have to do anything.
It doesn’t have to arm Ukraine against Putin’s Russia.

It doesn’t have to carpet-bomb the IRGC leadership.
It doesn’t have to enforce a trade embargo against Xi’s China.
Because Putin’s Russia made Putin the Tsar - and can’t even pressure him to say how the next Tsar gets chosen.
Because the IRGC depends on an export lifeline running through Gulf chokepoints - and ships most of its oil, at a sanctions discount, to the one buyer it can’t pressure: Xi’s China.
And Xi’s China is worse than Putin’s Russia. Putin got asked point-blank and refused to answer; Xi’s China actively beats up anyone who dares to ask, “Who’s the next Huangdi?”

So, just as Pax Britannica imploded from the imbalance within the Concert of Europe between Prussia and Austria, the US simply had to wait until all of Europe was incinerated in the flames of total war before intervening directly.
Just as the thousand-year Reich was buried under wars of attrition against almost everyone else - saddled with an ally that was more burden than help - the US only had to wait until that burden launched an air raid on Hawaii, forcing the Reich to declare war.
And just as the Soviet Union imploded under the sheer cost of permanent mobilization and the absurdity of a centrally managed economy, the Americans simply had to wait - grain exports in one hand, a hundred-billion-dollar IOU in the other.
All that matters is that the US keeps showing up.
Keep inventing entirely new, paradigm-shifting shit - even as its own people line up at Caleb Hammer’s studio to get called a dumb fuck over another financed Burgerpanzer F-150.

Keep throwing tantrums about $15/hour on YouTube, for every Chinese, Russian, and Iranian with a VPN to watch.
Keep doing nothing while Ukrainians subject Moscow to drone attacks all on their own.
Keep the CCP chained to neijuan - locked into an export market it can’t afford to lose, because involution leaves nothing at home to fall back on - and keep being rich enough to drop $50 on every sob story that leaks out past the Great Firewall.
Keep the IRGC sanctions in place, and force them to keep shooting their own people just to stay in power.

In other words: the United States only needs to be persistent.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 day ago

If there’s one 21th century politicians that’s tragically fucked it’s Friederich Merz

He actually delivers his campaign promise.

He campaigned on mass deportation, smash AfD thanks to that and it actually fucking happened.

But then Germany economy is structurally completely and utterly D-O-N-E FUCKED.

Median age older than Americans, only domestic electricity fuel is coal, can’t even feed itself, import almost all of the raw materials, get shafted by Chinese (after literally took over from the leaving Americans), already taxed whoever still working to death, etc.

Of course AfD gonna lead in polls again.

And if AfD think this is funny they should take a look at what happened to Matteo Salvini.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 3 days ago

Thou shall not call Stalin title other than tovarisch

Another 20% of GDP to military industrial complex and 5% of the populations died from starvation because the state exported all of their grain.

u/budy31 — 7 days ago

Pot meet welded pressure cooker.

Of all people that dare to post this it’s CCP propaganda arm so i have GPT make the counter.

u/budy31 — 9 days ago

Things Eurozone gave to its average user that will outlast it.

  1. Payment structure:

Even if the currency that’s using the payment structure died it still can be used by the other currency used to replace it.

  1. Regulations:

Yes it’s onerous, yes it’s bloated but it’s still regulations that no one has to rewrite from scratch.

  1. Autopsies:

It gave the planet earth one valuable lesson: monetary Union without fiscal Union is a suicide even if you get access to federal reserve swap line.

  1. Integration:

Dual nationality children, friendship that extend from Helsinki to Lisbon, erasmus generation etc, those things will last a generation.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 12 days ago

I’m not sure what to feel about Keir Starmer

As you guys know Bro officially resigned today and although o would qualify as a Thatcherites in UK politics I can’t help but to feel something about Starmer:

Yes he’s leftist so of course he gonna do one of the most aggressive tax hike in peacetime British history to pay the insanity that’s NHS & Pensions instead of cutting it off for good.

He tried to do mass deportation but then again the one shipping troublemakers have no problem to just revoke their citizenship.

He can’t just stop boat people from Normandy that easily since he doesn’t even have the money to fund a significant coast guard operation and Paris has the incentive to actually not keep them in France.

And seriously, yes that footage on Belfast and Hampshire is gnarly but he did throw a life sentence on the Hampshire case and the troubles era thug already start a riot before he can do anything.

And he’s an English elites (Oxford) so of course free speech isn’t that sacrosanct as compared to decency.

TL;DR: a lot of these fires mostly have nothing to do with him and he actually tried to put it down and failed.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 14 days ago

I think CCP unintentionally created the seeds for the largest terrorist organization in human history.

Before I go to my point context:

Back in ye olden days of the 11351 Original Red Turban rebellion (right after Toghon Temur et al fled back to Mongolia) a famine victims turned shaolin monks turned rebel leader turned huangdi called Zhu Yuan Zhang created petitioning system:

The system is simple really.

A random peasant can put his local magistrate in a chain, leapfrog with it to Beijing (those intercepting the peasant get death penalty if caught (important context)) and if the Zhu Yuan Zhang agree that said magistrate is corrupt… you can Google what he did to said magistrate.

It works wonderfully at making everyone happy: Zhu Yuan Zhang is happy that he get to commit sadism, the peasant is happy that his magistrate is the victims of Zhu Yuan Zhang sadism, and the magistrate being died painfully kind of left a open slot for a new magistrate.

But there’s one massive problem:
Too many petitioners.

Seriously one of his descendant literally died young from accepting too many petitioners and the rest flat out refused to accept anyone.

Fast forward to 12026

This is the year 14 of the Huangdi Xi “Magistratebasher” Jinping rule, and surprisingly Chinese Communist Party dynasty kept the petitioning system up and running.

The difference is that:
There are waaaaaaay more petitioners exist now than any point of time in its history.
Unlike Zhu Yuanzhang and his descendant the CCP dynasty decided in interest of stabilizing each individual huangdi blood pressure to make a bureaucratic system called National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration.
Unlike back in the olden days where intercepting petitioners = death penalty, now intercepting petitioners is a fucking line item because even if the pencil pusher at the National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration don’t read the entire petition (no one does) they still read petitioners home address (and too much petitioned from the same address means that address cadre promotion got frozen).

Imagine this:
You’re a 34 y.o. Chinese only sons that (finally) found some girl that want to marry you and as a dowry your entire clan (grandpa, grandma, mom, dad, aunts, uncle) foot a bill for one of the Evergrande project before Evergrande went bankrupt and your apartment left unfinished.

Not only your entire clan net worth get stuck in that unfinished apartment, even if by the miracle of the heavens it get finished instead of demolished Chinese property market is pretty much going to near 0.

At first you about to join the mainstream usual Tangping-Bailan-Sanhe Dashen-Guabi- Garbage Time of History- Kill Line bandwagon but then Your grandparents saw the ever benevolent Huangdi Xi Magistratebasher Jinping declare that all unfinished apartment must be finished.

The entire clan rejoiced because at least you and your future wife got the apartment but when you moved in you discovered that:
The apartment barely has any furniture unlike what the contract specify.
The lift not working at all.
The window is smashed because the construction firm did not get paid upon completion at all.
And the building is indeed a tofu dregs.

Your grandpa then comes up with a brilliant idea: the developers are corrupt but Huangdi Xi Magistratebasher Jinping is benevolent.

So you the ever pious future of the clan board a high speed rail to Beijing to submit your petition to the National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration.

At first everything is going great, it’s finally your turn you submit your petition to a pencil pusher that did not even bother to look at you and you about to reach your room at Majialou.

“About”, as you’re immediately got beaten up by a bunch of thugs and when police arrived he finds out that the one beating you is an interceptor and simply call in unmarked van.

Luckily for you it’s a good enough distraction that you managed to break free and lose them.

Once you’re finally out of their grasp (for now) you call your family explaining what just happened.

And their reaction is:

The magistrate is corrupt and the huangdi is benevolent don’t give up.

So you continue petitioning, you get to know other petitioners from the same province you get to share your grievances, your knowledge, etc.

Overtime you get to know the entire map of Beijing down to obscure alley by instinct, you get to know the police patrol route, how to spot interceptor, how to evade the most pervasive surveillance system on the planet, etc.

Yes you slip up once, yes you get beaten up, yes you get dumped back at your home village but the entire clan simply say the “Magistrate is corrupt and the emperor is benevolent, Jia You” so you hop back to the high speed rail.

Eventually even you can’t even buy a HSR ticket for being a serial petitioners but it doesn’t matter, your fellow petitioners already share the route he takes to Beijing that the interceptor doesn’t know.

But then something else shifted.

Huangdi Xi “Magistratebasher” Jinping died.

And all the magistrate start shooting at each other because he died heirless.
In one of those shootouts you managed to loot a gun left in its aftermath.

One of your petitioners brother happened to be a PLA veteran and he taught you not simply about how to aim properly but also how to strip it- clean it and finally reassemble it.

Then you realize that you and your fellow petitioners must go to the National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration building to rescue their file to which everyone agrees.
By that point the building have pretty much empty except with corpses/ document burned and intact there you not just find your file but million others more than anyone could count.

You then come to realization:
If no one under the heaven will come to resolve the injustice documented in your and million other petitions it’s up to you and your fellow petitioners to resolve the injustice yourself.

Everyone present agree and you and your fellow petitioners don’t just start looting weapons, files, stamp laying around the building, but you also start looting the red armband of the dead guards and wearing it yourself.

Congratulations you’re one of the ten thousand “Majialou elder” the highest ranking member of the largest terrorist organization in human history commonly known as Red Turbans.

And now: why I call them terrorist?
It’s simple really:
Because all of the people that job description is to see it coming failed to do their job miserably:

the western military and intelligence service barely know that Petitioning system existed and even if they know they treated it as a barely even worth a footnote.
CCP treat them as a doormats.
Overseas dissident is the most hilarious of them all: they believed that the Majialou elder believed in democracy and liberalism.
None of this guy ever believed in democracy and liberalism at all, from the day they first arrived at Beijing to the day they become Majialou elder they still believed that Magistrate is Corrupt and the Emperor is benevolent.

From the day they left the National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration building onward they never think about building a better future, they only care about resolving injustice.
This people are not liberals, these people are not democratic and they’re absolutely not a hippie.

These people are what Chinese civilization have consistently spawned for millennia of its existence.

乱.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 19 days ago

Things Islamic Republic of Iran gave to the average Persian that will outlast it before it died

  1. Women Literacy Rate & education:
    The biggest paradox of the 21th century, the regime that send in rabid dog to beat women to death for not wearing Hijab also doubled literacy rate among women during it’s >1/2 a century reign.

Add in the fact that 60% of Iranian university graduate are women which is highest on the planet.

  1. Pharmaceutical industry:
    >1/2 a century of one of the most brutal sanction regime in history and a push of educated populations produced a pharmaceutical sector that survived a pandemic on its own.

  2. Sanction evasion:
    Same reason with point 2, and the such knowledge will absolutely outlived the regime that makes all the geopolitical decision that lead to such sanction.

  3. Weapons factory:
    This is another big one because it didn’t just found foreign buyer used in one of the largest land conflict of the 21th century (still ongoing as per this post written) and it’s decisive enough that it forces Americans military industrial complex into panic.

  4. Persian Poetry:
    Islamic Republic have been aggressively promoted Persian Islamic literary figures and somewhat quite successful (you can find a Persians Taxi Driver that knows Rumi).

  5. Qom-Najaf axis:
    Shiite might be dying in Persia before the collapse of the Islamic Republic thanks to its failure to govern and finally died in Persia after the collapse of Islamic Republic but it doesn’t mean that it died in Yemen, Pakistan, Lebanon, etc.

  6. Water engineering:
    No matter the overall competency & ideology of each Persian dynasty one thing still certain: they have a millennia of arid climate competency baked in into their history and Islamic Republic is no exception even if the implementation of such competency is a sick joke for the inhabitants of Persian Highland.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 21 days ago

Present day US housing price probably gonna die by 2030’s

The reason is simple:
Autocut.

Social security trust fund is projected to deplete by that decades.

Boomers can’t even muster enough will to force a tax hike necessarily to revert it (in fact all that happened is for them to try and exempt themself from property tax (lol)).

It doesn’t matter how low their interest rate is, it doesn’t even matter if they bought it in cash, it doesn’t matter if they don’t pay property taxes.

Those electricity & utility bill is not free.

You might be able to life off SNAP but the latest shutdown specifically cut that first.

You still have to pay people to repair it/ provide materials (if you somehow able to repair it yourself) lest you want to have those house collapse with you inside it.

Eventually you will sell your home to downsize.

And here’s the kicker:

You’re not the only one.

We already have way more buyer than seller than during the 2008.

Renting is already exponentially cheaper than buying.

ETF smash home price returns by massive margin.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

New Game Theory term: Devils Bargain

It’s basically what happened if there’s only 1 iteration of prisoners dilemma because not taking the devils bargain fast enough means literal death.

Here’s how it plays.

A dictator that finished killing off all of his rivals (actual and potential) died without an heir.

The devils whispered to one of his minions that he killed the others he can become the dictators with unlimited powers.

The devils also whispered to the others minions that the one he whispered is planning to kill him and there’s no amount of running gonna hide him from the others assassins.

Now:

If both of them refused to take the devils bargain they lived.

If only one of them refused to take the devils bargain the one refused got killed by the others

Now here’s the thing.

All of them remembered the their former bosses and what he did to all of his rivals (actual and potential) they survived him after all.

They know what the others gonna do to them when they took power.

And above all they know there’s no second chances.

What do you think they all gonna do?

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

Things Russia (or Soviets in that matter) gave to average Russians that matters when it died in the flame of succession crisis

Some time ago i ran the CCP version this time o think o must run the Tsar Vladimir III version and here’s his legacy (or what he managed to preserve to become his legacy):

1.	Education:

Soviet education was world class and even after it’s own collapse decade after its collapse it somewhat recovered in quality making its emigre populations somewhat competent (especially on IT sector).

2.	Soldiers:

When pack of hyenas commonly known as Russians army disintegrated into several warlord domains the proficiency those hyenas got from the years of conflict in Ukraine did not simple disappear.

3.	Rail system:

Russians highway is a sick joke because rasputitsa ruined it every single spring but railway is build on top of the pebble foundation making it impervious to rasputitsa.

4.	Dacha:

50% of Russians populations have one, no one on the planet earth come even close to that level allowing the populace to grow their own food when the state dies.

  1. Cities outside Moscow:

St Petersburg was the capital city before Kerensky get toppled by Lenin, Rostov O Don sits on top of Kuban Chernozem, Grozny is a fortress city that Russians have to raze to the ground to conquer and Kazan is a industrial metropolis in it’s own right.

  1. Shadow economy:

Centuries of war, dysfunctional rationing, sanction and economic collapse have created shadow economy that’s the most advanced on the planet.

  1. Orthodox monastery:

Say what you will about “beating your wife is a spiritual duty”, but in the end Orthodox Church is still a building and local priest still knows all of his Parishers, do burial, etc.

  1. Cold weather survival infrastructure:

The largest nickel mine on planet (Norilsk) is a literal frozen hellscape and the fact that it still operates after USSR collapse, Russo Ukrainian war is an engineering miracle on itself.

  1. Nukes:

Russia sits on the largest Pu-239 plutonium reserve on planet DO I REALLY HAVE TO EXPLAIN THIS?

10.	Diaspora

More than 1/2 of century of pure unedulterated misery have produce a diaspora network from Buenos Aires all the way to Canggu.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

6 Technology leap I’m looking forward to Part VI: Recycling

This one require some context:

Semiconductor is the most complicated supply chain ever created in human history.

It involved hundreds if not thousand of company that basically monopolize it’s own market scattered across every country on the planet and each of them are indispensable in theory.

In theory.

Back during the 2022 Russians invasion of Ukraine one of that monopoly breaks.

Which is the Neon Gas monopoly located in Russia-Ukraine (Russia deliver the in purified neon gas and Ukraine purify it).

Neon Gas price goes completely parabolic and it stays high to these day.

Granted POSCO ASU (the thing you needed to extract Neon Gas) was operational months before the war started but something miraculous started to happened instead.

TSM, Samsung etc start removing the impurities of used Neon Gas and inject them back a.k.a they started recycling Neon Gas.

Now that’s the main context the other is the very fact that Scraps have basically taken out massive chunk of US steel production from virgin steel.

And we have yet to see the WWII of the 21st century.

TL;DR: humans will be more efficient at using resources via waste recycling one way or the other.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

Things that Pax Americana 1.0. Gave to the world and they will lose it in Pax Americana 2.0. Because they’re ungrateful and delusional

1.	Food:

Norman Borlaug agricultural revolution is not just about the yield but also application of mass fertilizer, pesticides, etc into the wider world.

2.	Fuel:

This might look controversial after epic fury but US refined product export is the only thing keeping the fuel prices across the planet to goes parabolic.

3.	Antibiotics:

US is where antibiotics is invented and it’s generous enough to allow the Chinese & Indians to manufacture their invention instead of keeping iron fisted monopoly.

4.	International liquidity:

US is the only country on the planet that saw 1T USD capital outflow and goes Gabe Newell and US consumer market is 1/3 of the planet consumer market so it’s the quickest place to scale everything.

5.	Technological diffusion:

Instead of declaring all technology as “national security”, US actually diffuse as much of its technology as possibly can in exchange of “market”.

6.	Internet:

It allows people from different hemisphere to communicate within second for essentially free.

7.	GPS:

GPS is the most accurate depiction of time, if it’s not for Clinton DOD only gave you approximate location within 100 meters and kept your actual location by yourself.

  1. Intimate disaster relief:

US navy projection isn’t just about force projection.

When 2004 Tsunami hits Aceh it wasn’t Indonesians government that came to aid first.

It was CVN-72, and it’s free.

  1. College:

Albeit Ivy League isn’t exactly the best place to learn it’s absolutely the best place to “networking” and Americans accept everyone into it.

And it’s not just private college, even West Point, USAF academy & Annapolis accept people from other countries.

Anything you want to add.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

6 Technology leap I’m looking forward to Part V: Small Modular Reactor

Just as this guy said

But unlike Thorium, SMR is already here (Chinese have one operational right now).

it's kind of safer and more affordable (in the short run) than big nuclear reactor.

and to me the west already have one working in form of nuclear submarine and nuclear powered aircraft carrier (in fact the one that makes the engine for both of those (Westinghouse)) also sells SMR.

that's it.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

6 Technology leap I’m looking forward to Part IV: Thorium Reactor

I know what you might be thinking:

SAAR Thorium is expensive AF to process!!!

And you’re right.

But what happened if India (that’s been trying to pull it off for 75 years) managed to indeed pull it off?

Thorium is more widely available on the planet than Uranium, it doesn’t generate nuclear waste, it’s far more chemically stable than Uranium, it far harder to be made into nuclear weapons, etc.

Yes it will absolutely revolutionize nuclear power generation far more than SMR.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago

6 Technology leap I’m looking forward to Part III: Space remote mining and manufacturing

Disclaimer: yes I know SpaceX gonna IPO, no I don’t own any shares, no I’m not planning to make a bid just yet.

Elon is 21th century Henry ford.
Yes he’s an ass on ketamine but you cannot deny that bro basically revolutionize a lot of 21th century technology (EV, AI, Robotics, Satellite comms and above all anything space related).

And the first two invention of this series will make his space related revolution even more revolutionary.

Yes human colony in Mars is a looooong way to go (absolutely not on Elon lifetime) BUT we don’t necessarily need humans to have a colony on the moon.

We just need:

  1. Robots (shitload of it) that don’t need oxygen, food, water, etc that can operate all the equipment of the colony.
  2. A Humans that supervise the robots through control station on earth.
  3. A transport method that shuttle everything from moon & vice versa.

Elon solved question 3 and because this is moon and not mars question 2 is already solved.

Question 1 answer really dependent on part I & part II to be solved.

reddit.com
u/budy31 — 1 month ago