r/QBTSstock

You’ve probably noticed something deeply strange if you’ve looked at the valuation multiples across the quantum computing peer group. The companies generating the most revenue trade at the lowest multiples. The companies generating almost no revenue trade at the highest. It’s the complete inverse of how valuation is supposed to work — and it’s not a mistake or a market inefficiency. It’s actually internally consistent once you understand what these stocks are.

The chart says it all

Plot EV/NTM revenue against LTM revenue and you get a clean downward slope. D-Wave (QBTS) at $12.4M in trailing revenue trades at 448x forward revenue. Quantinuum (QNT), which IPO’d this week at $60 per share, sits at 421x on $17.1M trailing revenue. Rigetti (RGTI) at $10M trades at 285x. Then as you move right — more revenue, bigger business — the multiples compress sharply. Infleqtion (INFQ) at $33.6M in LTM revenue trades at just 68x. IonQ (IONQ), the sector’s revenue leader at $187M LTM, sits at 74x. The relationship is almost mechanical: the more revenue a company has, the less the market is willing to pay per dollar of it.

These aren’t revenue stocks. They’re options.

What you’re actually buying in any of these names is a call option on fault-tolerant quantum computing becoming commercially viable — an event the roadmaps place somewhere between 2028 and 2032 depending on who you believe. Quantinuum calls theirs Apollo, targeting 2029. IonQ has a parallel programme. The timeline is uncertain, the payoff if it arrives is potentially enormous, and current revenue has almost nothing to do with either variable.

In options pricing terms, a company that is generating meaningful cash flows from its quantum technology today has partially exercised its option early. It has revealed information about what quantum computing is worth right now — which turns out to be a modest amount, since today’s systems are still largely experimental tools for research labs and pharmaceutical companies running proof-of-concept workloads. The unexercised option — the company burning through cash with negligible revenue but a credible path to fault tolerance — retains maximum time value precisely because it hasn’t yet revealed what the technology is worth. The market rewards that uncertainty.

D-Wave is the clearest illustration

QBTS has been generating real, recurring QCaaS revenue longer than anyone else in this group. It has the most commercially proven product. It has paying enterprise and government customers. And it trades at 448x forward revenue — the highest multiple in the peer group. Why? Partly because its Q1’25 revenue spike of $15M was a one-off hardware sale to a German supercomputing centre that inflates the trailing number. But more fundamentally because the market is not valuing the annealing business at all — it’s pricing the company’s pivot toward gate-model quantum computing via its acquisition of Quantum Circuits, and the probability that the combination produces something relevant to the fault-tolerant future. The revenue is almost being ignored as noise from the wrong product line.

Rigetti is even more extreme: revenue has actually declined three years running, from $13M in FY2022 to $7M in FY2025. By any conventional framework this is a company in commercial distress. Yet the $7.2B market cap says otherwise. The market is betting entirely on whether the modular superconducting architecture scales to competitive qubit counts by 2027 — something that has nothing to do with the income statement today.

Quantinuum’s IPO crystallises the paradox

QNT priced above its $53–55 range at $60 per share, raised $1.68B, opened at $68, and then slid below its IPO price within two days as the broader quantum sector sold off hard — D-Wave, Rigetti, Infleqtion and QUBT all fell double digits on June 5, and the group has continued lower since. In its first days of trading QNT has swung between roughly $51 and $71. By any traditional metric a company with $30.9M in FY2025 revenue, 62% of it from a single Japanese research institution, carrying a $15.5B market cap is uninvestable. By the option-pricing framework, it’s a well-funded bet on the best gate fidelity in the industry and a 2029 fault-tolerant system.

The comparison with IonQ is instructive. Both use trapped-ion technology. IonQ has been public since 2021, has grown revenue to $187M LTM through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions, and trades at 74x forward revenue — among the lowest multiples in the group. It is being progressively re-rated from a pure technology option toward a genuine revenue business. That compression, from 300x+ two years ago to 74x today, is what the normalisation process looks like. Every company in this sector will eventually face the same transition. The question is which ones survive long enough to reach it.

What actually matters right now

Given that current revenue is largely irrelevant to these multiples, what should you actually be watching? Three things. First, bookings and remaining performance obligations — these are the leading indicators of future revenue recognition and the best signal of real commercial demand. Quantinuum had $79.3M in FY2025 bookings against $30.9M in revenue, which is encouraging. D-Wave reported $33.4M in Q1’26 bookings alone, the best quarter in its history. Second, cash burn relative to balance sheet — every company in this group raised heavily in 2024–2025 and has enough runway to reach the fault-tolerant era if they’re disciplined. Third, hardware milestones — gate fidelity, qubit count, error rates. These are the intermediate signals that tell you whether the option is moving in or out of the money.

Revenue will matter eventually. The chart will look different in three years. But right now, in this sector, more revenue is a signal that you’re monetising the present — and the market is paying for the future.

All data from SEC filings and stockanalysis.com. Prices as of June 8, 2026. Not investment advice.

Recently Us announced they will invest 2billion total in IBM, D-wave, Rigetti, personally i think D-wave will perform better in long run compare to others quantum stock, what you all think🤔

Looks good to me.
Maybe they are telling us the mysterious Fortune100 Partner