I haven't seen a good update on the company posted here in a bit so I asked Fable 5 to give me one. Yes it's AI but it's pretty good and this can probably help people get up to speed with what to expect in the next 12 months or so. Please comment if you see something incorrect but I don't.

Where the permit process actually is

The regulatory cadence over the past 15 months has been remarkably fast and clean. Trump's April 24, 2025 Executive Order directed expedited permitting, offtake evaluation, stockpiling, and potential federal investment in seabed mining, and TMC filed the first-ever commercial recovery permit application days later. In January 2026, TMC USA submitted a consolidated exploration license + commercial recovery permit application covering ~65,000 km² of the Clarion Clipperton Zone — the first filing of its kind under NOAA's new streamlined process. NOAA found it in substantial compliance in March, and on May 1, 2026 determined it was in full compliance, moving it into certification, after which a draft EIS gets published for public comment, then finalized, with NOAA making the final call — a process TMC expects to conclude before the end of Q1 2027. NOAA also certified the USA B exploration license on May 28.

Remaining gates: draft EIS → public comment → final EIS → permit decision.

The company is now three bets, not one

Bet 1 — Offshore collection (the permit). ~70–80% chance NOAA issues the permit by mid-2027, base case Q1–Q2 2027. The tailwind: flagship EO project, every NOAA milestone hit on schedule, and industrial backing from Korea Zinc ($85.2M investment at $4.34/share plus $7.00 warrants), Allseas, and Glencore, with Michael Hess adding establishment credibility at the TMCR royalty spinco. What caps it below 80%: NEPA litigation on the EIS is near-certain, an injunction could delay operations even after approval, and the UNCLOS friction creates diplomatic/financing overhang. Probability of uninterrupted production starting Q4 2027 is lower: ~45–55%.

Bet 2 — Brownsville refining (the vertical-integration option). TMC holds an exclusive land-lease option at the Port of Brownsville, Texas, with a preliminary master plan and a PFS underway for a 12 Mtpa industrial park, plus a Mariana Minerals partnership on AI-enabled process controls. Critically, management is not committing capex — Plan A remains capital-light tolled processing, and Brownsville is explicitly conditional on financial support from the Administration. Treat it as a free call option on federal money: ~40–50% odds it advances to a committed, government-backed build by end-2027. Interim tolling home: Korea Zinc's $7.4B Washington-backed US refinery complex, since Korea Zinc has agreed to help process TMC's nodules.

Bet 3 — Project Vault (the demand backstop). In February, the administration launched Project Vault, a strategic critical minerals reserve funded by a $10B EXIM loan plus ~$2B private capital, letting participants hedge disruptions and lock in fixed purchase prices. This drove TMC's January/February run to ~$11 before fading. A TMC offtake or stockpile sale into Vault is the most powerful unpriced catalyst: ~35–45% chance of a federal offtake/stockpile arrangement within 12 months of permit issuance. Key risk: EXIM's authorization expires Dec 31, 2026 and Congress is still debating reauthorization.

Balance sheet: ~$162M year-end liquidity including undrawn facilities, a PFS showing $5.5B NPV on just the initial production area, plus a mixed shelf filed in March — funded through the decision, but dilution comes on any permit pop.

Expected calendar

• Q3 2026: Federal Register certification posting and draft EIS — the next real catalyst.
• Q3–Q4 2026: Public comment (~45–60 days); expect noisy opposition headlines. Also watch EXIM reauthorization progress and any Brownsville PFS results.
• Late 2026 – Q1 2027: Final EIS, then NOAA's determination — company guidance is before end of Q1 2027.
• 2027: Vessel mobilization, financing, offtake announcements; production targeted Q4 2027. Brownsville commitment decision likely lands in this window if federal support materializes.
• Wildcards anytime: Vault offtake, DoD stockpile deals, Korea Zinc JV formalization, Brownsville funding — each is independent of the permit.

Share price scenarios

Context: ~$4.95 now, 52-week range $3.93–$11.35, ~$2.1B cap, drifting down from January's Vault-rally highs. Management's ~$23.6B NPV estimate means the market pays ~$0.08–0.09 per dollar of claimed value. Analyst targets run $8–$11.75.

Illustrative ranges, not predictions — this trades on headlines, not fundamentals:

• Draft EIS published cleanly (Q3–Q4 2026): ~$6–8.
• Permit granted (Q1 2027): $9–13, then likely a sell-the-news pullback and/or raise off the shelf.
• Permit + Vault offtake or committed federally-backed Brownsville build: $14–18. This stacked scenario is now the real bull case — government purchase commitments or a funded refinery validate the economics, not just the legality.
• All three legs + production starting Q4 2027: the $20+ NAV-rerate argument becomes live in 2028.
• EIS trouble, injunction, or slip past Q1 2027: $3–4, with financing getting uglier. EXIM non-reauthorization would also quietly kneecap the Vault leg without an obvious headline.
• Denial: sub-$2, existential.

Structural caveat unchanged: even good news gets diluted — per-share upside will lag enterprise-value upside through 2027.

Net effect of adding Vault + Brownsville: permit odds are the same, but the distribution now has a much fatter right tail — three semi-independent upside catalysts instead of one — while downside is unchanged. Calendar items: draft EIS in the Federal Register (~Q3), EXIM reauthorization (by Dec 31), and the Aug 13 earnings call. Not financial advice — pre-revenue, binary-outcome stock where sizing matters more than timing — but that's the milestone map.

We are streaming the second and final day of the ITLOS hearings opposing NORI/TOML to the ISA. Once the hearing is over, you will be able to replay it through this link too.

You can find the transcript, summary, and simulated judgement of Day One here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YqfmR0MuR8Fh68Ard93D6Egzlyk5vOB-9ZymeIIq2lE/edit?tab=t.0

As well as the replay here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omc6MWCIUPg

Now that we have flown through NOAA's rubber glove for compliance, the next step is a publication in the Code of Federal Regs...Considering we were the first ones to file, we should be seeing something in July or August.

Iceberg called BS on Ives Wedbush piece on TMC. Has anyone posted on this issue. Barron seems to throw %s out there and Iceberg seemed to call BS.

I keep thinking that the renewal or extension of NORI's license by ISA due at some point before 24/26 of July, and the litigation between Nauru + Tonga vs ISA (pertaining to potential unfairness ... and questioning ISA processes) could be creating all the trouble and down selling pressure?

See the ISA agenda for the 31st Session 2026

https://isa.org.jm/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPW-31st-2nd-v.20260616.pdf

and a note, quite balanced (I think) about the litigation cases and the potential outcomes:

https://www.ejiltalk.org/pre-exploitation-litigation-cases-no-34-and-35-and-the-timing-of-deep-sea-mining-governance/

What are the views?

Negotiating period was extended (on March 18th) until May 16th, 2026 .. no other extension is shown in the Brownsville Port Biweekly meeting minutes. So, is this dead if they no longer have an approved Authority to Negotiate? No other news

https://preview.redd.it/yoqjni2v2a9h1.png?width=1409&format=png&auto=webp&s=f159d4f1b5757e047205b2682efbb99da81af4f4

The dotted line is a regression line for the past 3 months. Price tends to gravitate towards it.

If no major shift to the downward happens, price is likely to go back to the $5.88 level in a fairly short period (a few weeks), which is a 30% jump.

The current dip in price we are in mirrors what's happening with all speculative stocks. I can name some as an example but it's against the rules here.

This is not financial advice, just an idea, do your DD.

I feel good about EOJ. "Trust me bro".

The Canadian government has multiple powerful legal and regulatory tools to effectively block or severely cripple TMC's operations, even if the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grants them full commercial permits.

​Right now, TMC is a Canadian parent company (headquartered in Vancouver) using a North Carolina subsidiary (TMC USA LLC) to bypass the UN’s International Seabed Authority (ISA) and secure U.S. domestic mining permits under NOAA. However, the Canadian government officially supports a deep-sea mining moratorium.

​If Canada tries to squeeze TMC's executives or freeze corporate assets, the ultimate de-risking catalyst for us would be a full corporate redomiciliation (inversion) to the United States.

​Moving the parent headquarters fully to the U.S. would completely insulate TMC under the U.S. national security umbrella, rendering Canada's regulatory policy 100% irrelevant.

Final EIS from NOAA for TMC USA B exploration License is anticipated 5/26/2028. Does TMC USA A not require an EIS? .. says expects permits Q12027