u/The-Oregon-Group

More pressure on the market to come.

These problems aren't easy to fix.

It is def a risk that when a new administration comes in if jt is Dems they go searching through these deals to head hunt.

When the restocking begins.

Notice the list. All these new activities take critical minerals. It’s not just AI. But going to space takes them too.

Need copper if we want AI!

China announced Monday that it's adding MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to its export control list, effectively barring Chinese companies from selling certain dual-use goods and technologies to either firm. Nine other US entities were also named, spanning drones, robotics, aerospace, and defense — including companies like Ball Aerospace, L3Harris, and Oshkosh Defence.

MP Materials operates Mountain Pass in California, the only active rare earth mine in the US, and received a $400 million equity investment from the Pentagon last year. USA Rare Earth is building out a mine-to-magnet supply chain in Texas. These aren't random targets — they're at the heart of America's push to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supply chains.

China also restricted 46 additional US companies from government procurement, framing the moves as a response to the Pentagon expanding its own blacklist of Chinese tech companies alleged to be supporting the Chinese military.

The direct commercial impact may be limited in the short term since several targeted firms don't have much exposure to Chinese suppliers anyway. But the broader message is clear: Beijing is signaling it's willing to weaponize critical mineral supply chains as a geopolitical lever.

This fits a pattern that's been building for over a year. Rare earth exports from China plunged roughly 74% year-over-year in May 2025 after tariffs hit, and exports of key magnet materials have already been constrained to Japan as well. Analysts expect supply bottlenecks to persist through 2026.

Rare earths are critical inputs for EV motors, wind turbines, drones, missiles, and fighter jets. China controls the majority of global processing and magnet manufacturing capacity, which gives Beijing significant leverage over supply chains the US is still scrambling to rebuild domestically.

I wonder how the supply crisis ends up resolving itself. This is different. There is plenty of material. It’s just that China controls it. So they have such a big lever in being able to ramp up or ramp down prices.

This matters.