r/TheOregonGroup

The market is short term. China can knock down the price of these rare earth and minor metals with one announcement. The market will sell off. But fundamentally it doesn’t change the fact they control the refining.

If this causes a sell off. China will increase the cost of capital for western rare earth names. So it’s a massive win for them. Less production will go in to the pipeline. More control.

The cycle can only be broken with actual western controlled production and refining:

White House Fact Sheet on Trump-Xi Meeting Released: Critical Minerals & Rare Earths “Will Be Addressed” $MP $USAR $TMC $UAMY $UUUU $AREC $NB

• China will address U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium.

• China will also address U.S. concerns regarding prohibitions or restrictions on the sale of rare earth production and processing equipment and technologies.

https://preview.redd.it/6a38qhxcib1h1.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7530b4c2dd5dee94e9804135e522fa421bf82791

Feels like just a matter of time before the price of gold starts to move up again.

Most investors have never encountered scandium. There's a reason for that — global production sits at just 30-40 tonnes annually, making it one of the smallest commodity markets by volume among all industrially significant elements. But small market size and strategic importance are not mutually exclusive. In scandium's case, they are converging in ways the market is only beginning to price. Projectblue

What scandium actually does

Scandium's primary industrial role is as an alloying agent in aluminium. The numbers are striking: adding less than one percent by weight of scandium to aluminium produces an alloy with dramatically superior strength, weldability and corrosion resistance. Approximately $2 million of scandium in a single commercial airliner delivers an estimated $27 million in net present value from fuel savings alone. That ratio — tiny material cost, enormous performance gain — is why aerospace and defence engineers have been watching this metal for decades. Discovery Alert

Al-Sc alloys deliver 15-30% weight savings and superior weldability over conventional high-strength aluminium series, attributes vital to hypersonic vehicles and next-generation airframes. Beyond aerospace, scandium-stabilized zirconia is a critical input in solid oxide fuel cells, which operate at lower temperatures and longer lifespans when scandium is present. Demand from solid oxide fuel cells is forecast to grow at 23% CAGR, while aerospace and industrial use is projected to reach 50 tonnes per year over the next five years. International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency

The defence applications are particularly pointed. Scandium aluminium alloys are being actively developed for 3D-printed aerospace and defence components, enabling on-demand manufacturing of lightweight, high-strength parts for hypersonic systems, drones and advanced military platforms.

The supply picture is structurally broken

Here is the core problem: China controls 85% of refined chemical scandium and essentially all metallized scandium exports. The US has not mined scandium since 1969. The US government has designated scandium as a critical mineral, with the country 100% dependent on foreign imports. Most of Western Europe is in the same position. Discovery AlertDiscovery Alert

Most scandium is produced as a by-product from a handful of titanium dioxide, rare earth and alumina operations, and very few primary scandium mines have reached commercial scale. This structural limitation keeps supply vulnerable to disruptions linked to host commodity markets, geopolitical tensions, or project delays. Ctia

China just weaponized it

In April 2025, China imposed sweeping export restrictions on scandium and six other rare earth elements, citing national security interests — effectively halting the majority of global refined chemical scandium and all metallized scandium exports, sending shockwaves through industries reliant on these materials. The timing was deliberate, coinciding with escalating US-China trade tensions. Resource Recycling

The critical point: unlike some of Beijing's other export control announcements that were later paused as part of diplomatic negotiations, the scandium controls remain intact and in force. This is not a temporary disruption. It is a new baseline. Center for Strategic and International Studies

Scandium oxide pricing has already risen 35-40% from pre-restriction levels, now ranging from $3,500-$4,200 per kilogram. The Diplomat

The Western response is underway — but years behind

Governments are moving. The US Department of Defense awarded $29.9 million to ElementUS Minerals to establish a domestic supply of gallium and scandium, with a demonstration facility in Louisiana aimed at separating and purifying both metals from existing industrial waste. NioCorp's Elk Creek project in Nebraska is targeting 95 tonnes of scandium trioxide annually by 2028 and is pursuing an $800 million Export-Import Bank loan. In Australia, Sunrise Energy Metals' Syerston project — the world's largest and highest-grade scandium deposit — secured a landmark $67 million funding commitment from the US Export-Import Bank, the first time an Australian scandium project has attracted institutional-level US backing. International Energy Agency

The market is projected to reach $2 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of nearly 15%, driven by solid oxide fuel cells, aerospace lightweighting and defence demand — with a tightening supply base forcing Western buyers to accelerate offtake agreements with non-Chinese suppliers. The Globe and Mail

The setup

Scandium sits at the intersection of every theme driving critical minerals investment right now: Chinese supply weaponization, Western defence demand acceleration, zero domestic production in the US, a market too small to have attracted serious capital until very recently, and a performance profile in aluminium alloys that makes it genuinely irreplaceable for next-generation aerospace and hypersonic applications.

The market is tiny, illiquid and early. That is not a reason to ignore it. That is exactly the moment worth understanding before it isn't early anymore.

Copper market tightens too.