SpaceX stock (SPCX) gets all the attention right now, but the value proposition for retail investors is terrible and i don’t think anyone disagrees

So instead I went looking for adjacent bets tied to Elon’s other big moonshot, Neuralink, and found one worth flagging before that hype cycle plays out the same way…

Neurable - non-invasive brain-computer interface

• Puts EEG brain-sensors directly into headphones, no implant, no surgery required
• Already shipping: MW75 Neuro LT, $499, tracks focus, mental fatigue, brain age
• Just closed a $35M Series A (Dec 2025), total raised now $65M+
• Shifting to a licensing model so any headphone or wearable brand can build the tech in
• Already working with HP HyperX and the U.S. Air Force Research Lab
• Global BCI market projected to hit $52B by 2034

The portfolio company angle
• ThreeD Capital lists Neurable as a highlight investment in its latest investor deck
• ThreeD’s NAV per share sits trading at a 70% discount too
• Management owns over 40% of the company themselves

Neuralink still requires brain surgery to work. This one doesn’t, and it’s already on shelves.

Video: https://youtube.com/shorts/4fxEG4sgxIk?is=E\_U-sHN6gHQwrE-I

NFA. DYOR.

$IDK / $IDKFF

We’re halted, pending news.

Soon we’ll know if I’m going to be upgrading from the value menu, or dumpster diving behind the local Wendy’s.

GLTA

Reminder to do your own DD: https://www.reddit.com/r/Baystreetbets/s/yYWPj1dZNR

Original DD @ $0.135 : https://www.reddit.com/r/Baystreetbets/s/cEo9AcA98q

TL;DR: ICE wants ~100k detention beds (from ~70k). Plan A — $1.1B on 11 warehouse conversions — is stalled: 0 of 11 sites operating, and DHS Secretary Mullin told House Appropriations on Jun 25 that DHS is "evaluating all 11" purchased warehouse sites while acknowledging a bed shortage. Plan B: buy ~10 turnkey centers from CoreCivic ($CXW) and GEO ($GEO) — 20k+ idle beds combined, with active DHS sale talks per both companies' Q1 calls and Axios reporting. The Secure America Act (~$70B through FY2029) was signed Jun 10. Benchmark raised CXW PT $28 → $36 on Jun 26, citing 80% probability of 2 facility sales → ~$680M after-tax (debt paydown + buybacks). Long CXW and GEO — GEO looks like the laggard on the same thesis.

 

The administration's stated target is ~100,000 ICE detention beds.

Plan A: buy warehouses and convert them (~$1.1B across 11 sites).

Public reporting says that plan is failing:

- None of the 11 warehouse sites operate as detention centers ([Axios, May 7, 2026](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/07/ice-immigrant-detention-private-contractors))
- Local pushback, litigation, and officials blocking sites in multiple jurisdictions
- At the Jun 25, 2026 House Appropriations DHS oversight hearing, Mullin said DHS is "evaluating all 11" purchased warehouse sites and acknowledged a bed shortage ([C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/event/house-committee/homeland-security-secretary-mullin-testifies-on-dhs-oversight/444301))

Plan B: ICE buys turnkey facilities from private operators that already own built capacity. Axios (May 7) reported ICE is in talks to purchase ~10 turnkey facilities from its largest vendors, with GEO CEO Zoley citing a possible Q2–Q3 2026 sales window.

## Why $CXW and $GEO

CXW (CoreCivic)
- Largest non-government owner of correctional/detention facilities
- ~7,066 idle beds across 5 facilities (Q1 2026 call)
- CEO Swindle: active DHS sale discussions
- Benchmark $36 PT (Jun 26, 2026; was $28)
- ~+54% YTD per Investing.com/Benchmark coverage

GEO (Geo Group)
- Hosts ~25k ICE beds (~25% of ICE network)
- ~6,000+ idle beds across 6 former federal prisons (Q1 2026 call)
- CEO Zoley: multi-facility sale discussions
- Same thesis — read-through if CXW closes sales first
- Check live quote (moves with detention-policy beta)

Both companies have said they would sell turnkey assets at depreciated replacement cost (per Q1 earnings calls and Axios).

 Recent catalysts (Jun 2026)

- Jun 4 — ICE sole-source notice for Prairie/CoreCivic, up to 1,600 beds (SAM.gov / procurement reporting)
- Jun 10 — Secure America Act signed (PL 119-98), ~$70B for ICE/CBP/DHS through FY2029 ([Congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2))
- Jun 25 — Mullin Appropriations testimony: warehouse sites under review, bed shortage cited ([C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/event/house-committee/homeland-security-secretary-mullin-testifies-on-dhs-oversight/444301))
- Jun 26 — Benchmark raises CXW PT $28 → $36 (Buy maintained); 80% / ~$680M facility-sale scenario ([Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/benchmark-raises-corecivic-stock-price-target-on-detention-demand-93CH-4762738))

Funding (Jun 10): multi-year appropriations reduce the recurring "will Congress fund detention beds this year?" uncertainty that slowed procurement during the earlier DHS shutdown period.

Procurement (Jun 4): sole-source toward existing CoreCivic capacity — consistent with buying turnkey beds instead of new warehouse conversions.

 Congressional calendar (archived)

From publicly archived House Appropriations pages:

- Jun 11, 2026: the main Appropriations [hearings schedule](https://web.archive.org/web/20260611135716/https://appropriations.house.gov/schedule/hearings) did not yet list the DHS oversight hearing
- Jun 25, 2026: Mullin testified at the [DHS oversight hearing](https://appropriations.house.gov/schedule/hearings/oversight-hearing-department-homeland-security-0) — warehouse rethink and bed pressure discussed; no CXW/GEO facility sale announcements at the hearing
- Jun 26, 2026: Benchmark published its $36 PT on CXW

Management on both Q1 calls guided facility sales on a Q2–Q3 2026 timeline. No SEC 8-K announcing completed facility sales has been filed as of Jun 26.

Benchmark math (Jun 26, 2026):

From [Investing.com's summary of the Benchmark note](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/benchmark-raises-corecivic-stock-price-target-on-detention-demand-93CH-4762738):

- Buy maintained, PT $36 (was $28) — 8.5× FY2027 EBITDA
- 80% probability of 2 CXW facility sales → ~$680M after-tax proceeds → debt paydown + share repurchases
- Cites >20k combined idle beds (CXW + GEO) and active DHS discussions

CXW was already up ~50% YTD before the note published — the Benchmark headline is fresh; the detention thesis is not hidden.

 Bull case

1. Bed demand — 100k target vs ~70k active implies a large capacity gap
2. Warehouse failure — DHS reassessing all 11 purchased sites pushes demand toward existing private facilities
3. Funding locked — Secure America Act covers enforcement spending through FY2029
4. Asset sales — one-time cash to CXW/GEO plus ongoing management revenue if deals close
5. GEO read-through — if CXW closes sales first, GEO trades on the same customer and Plan B logic

 Bear case

- Political risk — Jun 25 hearing included heated exchanges on detention deaths and overcrowding
- ESG / headline risk — limited institutional buyer pool; negative press can hit both names
- Deals not signed — "discussions" and Benchmark's 80% scenario are not closed transactions
- Valuation — CXW already up sharply YTD; same Investing.com article flags fair-value concerns
- Plan A revival — if DHS revives warehouse conversions, turnkey purchases could slip
- Legal friction — state/local opposition (including California AB 1801 dynamics for GEO assets)
- Policy reversal — future administration, court orders, or appropriations changes

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Sources

- Benchmark PT raise (Jun 26): https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/benchmark-raises-corecivic-stock-price-target-on-detention-demand-93CH-4762738
- Axios — ICE Plan B, 10 facilities, 0/11 warehouses operating: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/07/ice-immigrant-detention-private-contractors
- Jun 25 Mullin hearing: https://www.c-span.org/event/house-committee/homeland-security-secretary-mullin-testifies-on-dhs-oversight/444301
- Jun 11 Appropriations schedule (Wayback): https://web.archive.org/web/20260611135716/https://appropriations.house.gov/schedule/hearings
- Secure America Act: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2
- CXW Q1 2026 transcript: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/CXW/pressreleases/1778854/corecivic-cxw-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/

Posting here about a company that I think is overlooked as a potential Canadian 10x stock - Cal Nano. I will not BS you - here is my overview of both the good and the bad about this company, from all my research. Please also tell me if I am missing anything or if you disagree about my reasoning. I love to learn, and debate is often the best way to arrive at the truth.

The Good

-Nanomaterials market is projected to grow at an CAGR of 15% a year (see this report: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/nanotechnology-and-nanomaterials-market)
-the company has gone through 2 rough years, but just reported a profitable EBIDTA in the most recent quarter
-there is no insider selling, and there is significant insider buying
-the company has a significant moat, due to being the only commercial provider of SPS and Cryomilling in North America
-they have commercial contracts with major industries like Defence (see October 3, 2025 press release re Military Brakes contract) and Nuclear (see the nuclear growth mentioned in the FY 2026 press release yesterday).
-the company is based in the US, but listed in Canada. This means they are saving a mountain on NASDAQ and SEC fees.
-they report their earnings in USD, and with the USD/CAD FX being where it is right now, the stock is trading at a significant discount
-recently became debt free
-Trading View just gave it a price target of 1.03 (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TSXV-CNO/forecast-price-target/)

The Bad
-micro (nano?) cap, and is only just beginning to return to profitability
-the largest jump in stock price seen in June 2024 is due to their green steel customer, who was responsible for the lions share of the company’s revenue and profit during those last 2 years. Back then, the company was trading at a crisp 15ish P/E, before the spike. That green steel customer decided not to proceed with commercial production, and since then management has worked to diversify the revenue across different customers.
-recently diluted equity in an offering (but I note that insiders participated in the offering to maintain their share. Again, insiders are buying and holding)
-because they are listed in Canada, they don’t have access to the firehose of capital that goes into US public companies (however, that also means they are trading at a significant discount, and once they grow and pursue a NASDAQ listing, the stock price would skyrocket).

Why Cal Nano is at the helm of major trends

-since Covid, we are living in a shortage of everything. Memory, critical minerals, housing, toilet paper, energy, oil, you name it. Supply shocks are the name of the game across every market.
-When there are shortages, businesses are forced to innovate, and come up with different ways to obtain comparable goods.
-Advances in nanomaterials are one avenue of such innovation, with materials science rapidly adopting Cal Nano’s two key technologies - Cryomilling and SPS
-additionally, quantum computing is rapidly becoming more feasible, and again, a key area where quantum computing is projected to create value is in pharma and Nanomaterials (as per this report: https://postquantum.com/quantum-utility-map/quantum-computing-2033-industries/#what-2-000-logical-qubits-can-actually-do)
-as AI power demand ramps up, nuclear and fusion are also rising in use, and these industries rely on advanced materials (see the nuclear control rods press release dated Nov 5, 2025).
-finally, the US is quickly becoming protectionist and demanding that local US-based suppliers are the sources for their homeland defence sectors. This sets Cal Nano apart, because they are based in the US (see their press release dated October 3, 2025 re the contract for military brakes)

I’ve been in and out of $VNP since it was $8-10/share, missed out a ton cause I kept getting cold feet rather than holding, but overall very much positive. I’ll probably dip out as this approaches $48-50/share around late July/early August. Earnings call is scheduled on Aug 3.

159k on a margin loan. No, this isn’t 73% of my total investments as I’ve been doing a couple of match promos, but it’s definitely a sizeable portion of my overall net worth.

No point in posting an AI blurb, but in short, 5N Plus has:

• a moat with its purification processes
• has a large backlog through 2027
• owns Azur Space, which is also backlogged throughout 2027
• a ton of these space companies (RKLB, SPCX, etc.) utilize 5N Plus’s product
• is increasingly important against this whole China critical minerals export restriction
• the increasing spend on national security and defence

Risks:

• geopolitical, mostly USA and China relations, but also this past few months ISA/Israel/Iran made me pretty nervous since it dropped pricing back a ton for a brief period (initially I bought in at ~$42)
• Bismuth and Germanium pricing, but these seemingly are already priced in
• if any rockets that are launched don’t go well, the price seems to dip a bit
• $FSLR, which is $VNP’s biggest contract, was named in a lawsuit this past week for not handling USA’s tariffs as seamlessly as stated. This however seems to be priced in.