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GOOG is the new AAPL
▲ 1.3k r/TheMoat+1 crossposts

GOOG is the new AAPL

Buffett famously invested in Apple at around 16x PE. That’s an initial earnings yield of 6.25% right off the bat. Since then, AAPL has gone on to increase its EPS from around $2.16 per share to $8.71 per share, a 4x increase. This means his initial earnings yield of 6.25% has increased to 25% in 10 years! And it will continue to increase going forward.

So how does this compare to GOOG? Well, Google is in the fortunate position to be growing its earnings (or at least EPS) by around 20% per annum. Going by his 13-F’s, Buffett’s investment in GOOG would likely have been made around 25x PE normalized. If we do the math, this means Google will likely be able to increase its earnings yield from 4% to 25% over the next 10 years (1/25 x 1.20^10). That’s another AAPL over there!

valueinvesting.substack.com
u/Crucco — 4 days ago
▲ 0 r/TheMoat+1 crossposts

Gemini 3.5 Pro being late is slowly killing Google's stock price (-0.5% every day for a week), as their website still says "Gemini 3.5 Pro coming soon"

u/Crucco — 2 days ago
▲ 104 r/TheMoat+3 crossposts

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u/Crucco — 7 days ago
▲ 148 r/TheMoat+1 crossposts

We are witnessing the largest CapEx spending spree in history. Hyperscalers have committed a record $2.6 trillion in future spending across data center leases and equipment purchases

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This includes leases for data centers and power infrastructure that have not yet commenced, and existing purchase contracts for equipment and services.

These obligations do not appear on company balance sheets and are disclosed only in limited accounting footnotes, despite their enormous size and duration.

Alphabet has the largest total, with $811 billion in purchase commitments and $85 billion in leases not yet commenced, bringing its combined obligations to ~$896 billion.

By contrast, Oracle has committed $32 billion to purchases, but $260 billion to leases that have not yet commenced, the largest lease obligation among the group, bringing its total to ~$292 billion.

u/Crucco — 8 days ago
▲ 190 r/TheMoat+1 crossposts

10 Classic Charlie Munger Quotes - Buffett's Right Hand Man and Business Partner

I always enjoy reading about Charlie Munger. Here are a few gems that I came across and just wanted to reshare here for daily inspiration for all things Buffett and Munger:

  1. “It’s remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”
  2. “In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none, zero.”
  3. “I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than when they got up.”
  4. “The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more.”
  5. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.”
  6. “Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.”
  7. “You don’t have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long, long time.”
  8. “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.”
  9. “The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.”
  10. “I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.”
reddit.com
u/Crucco — 10 days ago
▲ 57 r/TheMoat+1 crossposts

THE STOCK MARKET ON MONDAY

Reasons to be optimistic:

- Trump didn't say nor do anything silly in the Persian Gulf over the weekend
- Sergey Brin is back at Google, leading Gemini development
- Most world leaders that could break the economy with insane tweets are on vacation

u/Crucco — 11 days ago
▲ 5 r/TheMoat+2 crossposts

Timing the market: missing best (and worst!) days

So, the consensus is that time in the market is generally better than timing the market. And they often show the panel to the left ("if you miss some key days, your profit halves!"). But nobody challenges the opposite view: what if you miss the WORST market days?

The bar plots show cumulative total return of a hypothetical $1 invested in the S&P 500 over the last ~10 years (Aug 2016 – Aug 2026). Bars show cumulative total return.

Data: Yahoo Finance via tidyquant. Plot done with R 4.5.3

u/Crucco — 12 days ago
▲ 2 r/TheMoat+2 crossposts

Funnily enough, Coca-Cola diverging above Pepsi marked both the start and end of the Dot-Com Bubble. That signal is back for the first time in over a decade. Would you rather have $KO or $PEP in your portoflio?

u/Crucco — 14 days ago