r/USIranWar

Operation Epic Fury was obviously designed to capitalise on CIA and Mossad funded and supported and use the shock and awe tactics of mass bombing Tehran and the military assets of Iran to collapse the IRGC and Ayatollahs regime and with guidance from the western intelligence community, install a puppet or friendly government (numerous military figures from the US and Secretary of War Hegseth states as much the goal was to allow a friendly government to take shape and as evidenced by the western media parading around former Shah Reza Pahlavi).

However the US underestimated the unity of the IRGC, its allies willingness to help, and its own capability to trot out the regime + coup change it’s used in the past and Irans ability to close the SoH and use it as a weapon. This falls against key US military doctrine that advises commanders to accurately understand the enemies Morale, strength and disposition of strength and assumed that overwhelming force would be enough against a country planning asymmetric warfare for the past 40 years and also was unable to understand the scale and severity of the global economic implications (yes men don’t make good leaders eg. Hegseth, Rubio etc)

Therefore the US has shifted to operation freedom as an attempt to remedy Irans leverage economically and use negotiations to secure temporary wins while regaining an operational tempo to figure out a fix to Epic Fury (again failing to understand that Iran has strong ideological backing from within to keep fighting as long as possible). US Intelligence now indicates that Iran has been repositioning its remaining drone and military assets.

All in all what is likely next is an attempt of limited military action against Kharg Island, Further air strikes against Irans oil capacity all in an attempt to force some surrender and semblance of victory.

However the US again is left in a dilemma where it can’t pursue ALL of its initial stated goals and objectives, whether it be total regime change (essentially out of the question), de-nuclearisation or Iran (now not happening without total regime change or significant and extremely difficult operations to destroy their nuclear supply chain and enrichment) or even to militarily neuter Iran into a failed state which even that is not happening without achievable but dangerous, extremely unpopular and expensive air and naval strikes on Iranian oil, military and civilian infrastructure which even that would create significant instability in the region and be a significant radicalising force that would severally hurt the US in the short-medium term and be its undoing in the Middle East in the immediate to long term.

Ultimately the US created its own demise here with decades of interference in Iran and the Middle East (and wider world) and completely failed to understand their own standing in the world after years of forever wars, isolating allies and completely neglecting their own domestic situation.

https://preview.redd.it/bbe12aj9tw1h1.png?width=786&format=png&auto=webp&s=138ee04e9b3d5263e1c4828f869c45367ad7cc3e

If this news is true, then they are trying to dare the US that they can't do anything to them, and there is 60% chance that Trump will surely want to teach them a lesson that he is still the boss in charge, and if it escalates. I predict two things to happen:

Another new warr will happen over who is in charge of the Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil will continue to increase in price, who knows it could reach $150, and this could be a win for some traders going for long on bitgetCFD.

What do you think could happen after this news?

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1GrumYm21D/?mibextid=wwXIfr

If sanity finally gets back to this world and the war finally ends, as everyone has been looking forward to seeing, what could possibly be the fate of crude oil prices that are currently ranging around $90 to $110?

If we remember, before the US-Iran war started, crude oil was around $70, and many were even saying it would go down deeper because of a lot of speculation around prices and many other factors attached to it.

If it later happens that both sides finally agree to a ceasefire and put the war behind them, my setup for trading crude oil will be huge because I know it could return to $70 or even lower than that. Fortunately, this is the season of trading competition where someone could easily get a share in $40k just by trading commodities and other assets.

Since the visit of Donald Trump to China, there has been a lot of controversy among people, including traders and investors. Some are saying the main purpose of his visit is to seek reinforcement in dealing with Iran and possibly force them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while others believe the visit could have a major effect on the global market, especially stocks.

And honestly, after checking the movement of stocks like $NVDA, $MU, and many others since the US president arrived in China, I have seen different levels of volatility across the market. Trust me, after seeing what is happening, it feels like I may have cracked a winning code.

I decided to short $NVDA after noticing weakness around resistance, and as of the time of writing this, it is already close to hitting my TP on stock futures.

One thing I have learned from all this is that there is opportunity everywhere for anyone willing to do extra research and turn information into an advantage.

I know the revolutionary guard is taking lumps, and the navy is gone and the airforce did what they could. But the regular army? Has it been hit or is the US hoping for a coup?

Three times since the dawn of the war President Trump has raised the plan to escort the trapped ships through the straight by use of Navy ships. These plans never gain traction.

Superficially, it seems logical. But, maybe more logical back in the time of blocking being accomplished by a navy. In this era of missiles, does escorting really work? Iran has those, but longer a real navy.

Secondly, do naval vessels expose themselves to risk of damage by missiles, or are naval ships constructed so heavily played that missiles do only superficial damage?