A love story 4U (UUUU - NYSE)
I’m holding 35,000 shares of UUUU at a $14.71 average. I’ve watched this position go from roughly 100% up to more than 33% down, and I’ve held it since December 2025. The screenshot shows about $172,000 in unrealized losses YTD. I have no intention of selling because I still believe the five-year opportunity is compelling.
My read is that UUUU has encountered a perfect storm: substantial capital commitments, fuel-cost exposure across mining and ore transportation, and an ambitious expansion strategy unfolding during a severe energy shock. Higher financing costs make that combination harder for the market to digest. Energy Fuels outlines $400–450 million of near-term growth investment and $1.7–1.8 billion over the medium term. Investors are being asked to absorb the costs and uncertainty before the expanded platform delivers its earnings.
While this blows in the short term, the buildout is central to my thesis, and the buildout itself has potential benefits that extend far, far, far beyond its current value. Energy security is a bipartisan issue, and like MP and USAR, UUUU is building a connected supply chain that aligns with political demand. I also see a radical perfect storm brewing around American energy independence, AI energy and infrastructure demand, and a national critical minerals supply chain.
I also just f’n love their assets. White Mesa provides processing and rare-earth separation. The completed ASM acquisition adds operating metals and alloys capabilities. VAC, if the acquisition closes, would extend the chain into permanent magnets. Alongside uranium, that could give Energy Fuels a strategically valuable position across several stages of the Western critical-materials supply chain.
Another angle I’ve considered is that history typically rhymes. Check out what has happened in previous energy crises:
- After the 1973 oil shock, uranium prices began climbing in 1974 and approached $43/lb by early 1978, according to the IAEA, which directly linked the oil-price increase to improving nuclear economics.
- From 2022 through January 2024, spanning the Russia-driven energy crisis, uranium’s month-end spot indicator rose from $43.08 to $100.25/lb. Multiple factors contributed, but it is a clear example of substantial uranium appreciation during a period of renewed concern over energy security.
The current uranium backdrop reinforces my conviction. September’s spot indicator was $89.63/lb, above $81.55 at year-end, while the long-term indicator rose from $86.50 to $96.50. The contracting backdrop has strengthened through a brutal period for the shares. As such, much of the underlying value of the company has been maintained or improved, while macro conditions have hit its stock price like a Muhammad Ali punch to the gut.
Around $9.80, the entry price also looks compelling to me. The reported October 8 RSI was near 28, and the latest September 15 report showed approximately 55.7 million shares short—roughly one-fifth of the float. Delivery on financing, acquisitions, and production could materially change sentiment and let it rip. Note: this is the same stock that climbed 45% in 15 days on zero news....
The drawdowns are never fun, but there were five 40% drawdowns during the last uranium bull market in the 2000s. I see this as no different.
Disclosure: Long and forever UUUU </3