u/bourbonwarrior

I am not familiar with the Tawainese based President Capital.

Anyone know them?

Take it for what it is.

***Just keep in mind the 180 day lock up agreement ends on August 23rd. 10% of the 27.5M shares do become available on Monday, a week from today.

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President Capital (a Taiwanese-based firm) is often disseminated primarily through professional terminals and data aggregators rather than public-facing PR releases.

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https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/74792082/president-capital-initiates-realloys-at-buy-with-28-price-target?futusource=nnq_personal_guest&level=1&data_ticket=1786988619252911

Worth reading, solid data and infographic rich article showing the significant off balance sheet obligations and $1.52 Trillion in long-term purchase agreements for the hyperscalers.

HREEs are a very big part of these commitments ----> cooling systems, chips, racks, energy systems, critical infrastructure, etc.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-big-techs-ai-spending-is-3-trillion-higher-than-it-seems-e1067bb2?st=fryn5B&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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In accordance with accounting rules, Meta’s Hyperion lease obligations will remain off balance sheet until it starts paying rent. It said its aggregate initial lease commitment is about $12.3 billion**.** 

Meta disclosed $347 billion in total obligations for leases that haven’t kicked in yet, including for Hyperion, as of June.

Across the companies the Journal analyzed, promises of payments under these uncommenced leases totaled $1.2 trillion in off-balance–sheet obligations, or about four times more than what was disclosed a year earlier. I

In addition to Meta, the WSJ reviewed commitments for Alphabet, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom, SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices.

Data centers get stuffed with a lot of hardware, including the Nvidia chips that are used to train and run models and memory chips that store information. To buy all that, companies sign long-term contractual agreements well in advance to lock in production from their suppliers.

Those and other purchase obligations at the companies the Journal examined stand at a whopping $1.9 trillion. Under accounting rules, purchase commitments typically remain off balance sheet until a product or service is delivered.

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Alphabet’s purchase commitments and contractual obligations have exploded and stood at $811 billion as of June 30. As with other companies, it is hard to tell from its disclosures what precisely it intends to buy. The company said the commitments primarily relate to “technical infrastructure and inventory” and “agreements to secure energy for data center usage.”

Alphabet also didn’t detail why those obligations increased so much from the $332 billion it reported three months earlier. The commitments span several years, with obligations under its energy agreements lasting as far out as 2054.

Off-balance-sheet exposures at some companies include agreements to buy other companies’ stock in the future or backstop leases for other tenants. Nvidia committed to make $27 billion in equity investments between April 26 and the end of its fiscal year in January 2027.

There are reasons to believe tech companies will make good on all their obligations. Optimists see the skyrocketing demand for AI tools—which has lifted the stock market and led to shortages of key hardware—as a proof point that demand is going to be strong for years, and the money to pay off all these bills will be rolling in.

For the more anxious set on Wall Street, it is a worrying sign that some tech companies that once seemed to have fortress balance sheets have needed to tap the capital markets frequently.

Alphabet and Amazon recently posted results showing negative free cash flow, meaning their capital spending exceeded the cash they brought in from operating their businesses.

As this scales, ALOY's growth becomes exponential; this mandated closed-loop monopoly simply evolves like stacking Legos onsite or behind-the-meter while connected via a "horizontal OS" with digital twins capabilities to function as a nimble (potentially) integrated global software defined factory with output aligned by specific HREE demand.

DFARS 2027 is the regulatory mandate that enhances ALOY's operations and margins. DPA non-dilutive capital provides IRS Section 45X and Section 48C ----> significant benefits to assist in scaling.

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Companies such as Caterpillar and Cummins are pivoting to feed a booming market for once-prosaic power equipment

https://www.wsj.com/business/big-manufacturers-find-new-demand-in-equipping-ai-data-centers-14e869ee?st=M5qH98&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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Do some due diligence on BlackRock's assets in the Data Center space, all of their partnerships and Joint Ventures. No wonder they secured 6.2% of REalloys.

Per-Facility Impact - Standard 100 MW AI Data Center

Cooling Infrastructure ----> The Primary HREE Driver

A 100 MW IT load requires roughly 35,000–50,000 kW of thermal heat rejection. Across variable-frequency drive (VFD) chiller compressors, chilled water pumps, and computer room air handler (CRAH) fan arrays, a 100 MW facility locks up 320 kg to 650 kg of refined Dy/Tb oxide equivalent.

On-Site Gas Turbine Microgrid (Solar Turbines/Baker Hughes)

Installing 100 MW of dedicated on-site aeroderivative or industrial gas turbines consumes 150 kg to 300 kg of HREEs of initial blade and combustor thermal barrier coatings, requiring recoating every 24,000 to 32,000 operating hours.

Backup Genset Fleet (Caterpillar/Cummins)

A 100 MW N+1 redundancy backup yard (~25 to 30 units of 4 MW gensets) uses 6 kg to 18 kg of Dy/Tb solely across PMG exciters and electronic throttle actuators.

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ALOY-JS Link JV ----> Impact

JS Link's Grain Boundary Diffusion (GBD) reduces total Dy/Tb content per magnet by 40% by concentrating heavy atoms at grain boundaries rather than in the bulk matrix.

Nice morning!

A significant amount of HREEs are needed for these drones.

ALOY ecosystem + GM Defense - Lockheed Martin (other primes + Anduril/EDGE Group/Archer)

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The proclamation also authorizes the Commerce Secretary to establish an onshoring program for companies making new investments in manufacturing drones and drone components, in line with the administration’s push to bolster national-defense industries.

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“U.S. drone production needs to be expanded rapidly to ensure U.S. national and economic security,” it said.

The action is meant to counter Chinese dominance in the commercial drone market and reshore production to the U.S. Drones and components from China will face significantly higher levies than those from allied nations. The move also comes ahead of an expected Sept. 24 meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

According to the proclamation announced Thursday, the duties are tiered according to the capacity of the drones and their place of origin.

Bigger drones that have militarily sensitive abilities such as thermal imaging are subject to a 100% tariff based on their value, along with certain critical components. Smaller drones and components without the same implications for national security face a 25% levy.

U.S. allies will have lower rates. A 15% tariff will be imposed on products from the European Union, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan, with a 10% duty levied on drones from the U.K. under the condition that nearly all hardware, software and technology originate from within these countries and the U.S.

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https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-announces-drone-tariffs-to-protect-national-security-bolster-u-s-supply-chains-87bab5b8?st=qkdZp9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Saskatchewan Research Council ("SRC") Rare Earth Processing Facility upgrade and Metallization Facility fully funded; $122.4 million of cash at quarter-end; advances U.S. Army Enhanced Use Lease negotiations at Tooele Army Depot

• Fully funded the upgrade of SRC's Rare Earth Processing Facility, targeting approximately 525 tonnes of NdPr metal, 30 tonnes of dysprosium oxide and 15 tonnes of terbium oxide of annual capacity
• Advanced the fully funded Heavy Rare Earth Metallization Facility, targeting commissioning in the first quarter of 2028 with approximately 50 tonnes of annual dysprosium and terbium oxide capacity
• Closed a $100.0 million private placement of common stock in June 2026, ending the quarter with $122.4 million in cash
• Selected by the U.S. Army for exclusive negotiations toward a long-term Enhanced Use Lease at Tooele Army Depot, Utah, to develop heavy rare earth processing facilities

BOCA RATON, Fla., Aug. 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- REalloys Inc. (Nasdaq: ALOY) (the "Company" or "REalloys"), today reported results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Net revenues were $0.8 million, compared with $0.4 million in the second quarter of 2025, and the Company reported a net loss of $36.8 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.2 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. The increase in net loss was driven primarily by $32.1 million of non-cash stock-based compensation associated with director, officer, and consultant equity awards primarily granted in connection with the Company's February 2026 transition to a Nasdaq-listed public company.

"This quarter we fully funded the upgrade of the SRC Rare Earth Processing Facility and our planned Pilot and Commercial Metallization Facility, advanced our selection by the U.S. Army for exclusive Enhanced Use Lease negotiations at Tooele Army Depot, and continued to build the leadership team needed to execute our mine-to-magnet strategy. Committing the capital to fully fund the SRC upgrade and expansion, as well as our Metallization Facility, puts our flagship strategic projects on a clear path to commissioning, and reflects the same trend behind our discussions with the U.S. Army: North America's need for secure, traceable, non-Chinese sources of rare earth and magnet materials has never been greater, and we intend to be that source." — Leonard Sternheim, Chief Executive Officer of REalloys

"Rare earth magnets are foundational to the defense platforms, systems and advanced technologies that underpin the security of the United States and its allies, and we believe building a resilient, non-Chinese supply chain for these materials is one of the most consequential industrial challenges of our time. We have significantly deepened our leadership bench, adding public-company financial discipline, hands-on expertise in rare earth processing and metallization, and a sharpened focus on strategic partnerships. All this reflects the seriousness and technical depth we are bringing to this mission" — Stephen S. duMont, Non-Executive Chairman of the Board of REalloys

Second Quarter Financial Highlights

• The Company's cash balance as of June 30, 2026 was approximately $122.4 million
• Maintained a strong, virtually debt-free balance sheet, against $209.8 million of assets

Revenue growth was driven by PMTCM's sales of rare earth metals and materials from the Euclid facility, including under a Defense Logistics Agency contract, and by subscription revenue from the Blackbox trading analytics platform prior to its deconsolidation on May 5, 2026. General and administrative expense for the quarter included $32.1 million of non-cash stock-based compensation, comprising $19.5 million related to RSU and RPSU awards to the Board of Directors and executives and $12.6 million related to shares-for-services consulting awards. Excluding non-cash items, general and administrative expense was approximately $3.9 million (a non-GAAP measure; see "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below).

For the six months ended June 30, 2026, net revenues were $1.5 million, compared with $0.4 million in the prior-year period, and net loss was $143.5 million, or $2.49 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $3.9 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, in the prior-year period. The six-month net loss included $113.9 million of non-cash stock-based compensation, a $9.2 million non-cash accretion charge on the conversion of Series C Convertible Preferred Stock, a $6.4 million non-cash impairment charge related to the Company's EVTEC investment, and a $3.4 million non-cash change in the fair value of contingent consideration.

Strategic Projects Update and Outlook

SRC Rare Earth Processing Facility Upgrade — Fully Funded. REalloys has fully funded, with committed capital, the planned upgrade of the SRC's Rare Earth Processing Facility. SRC is expected to commence upgrade activity in the third quarter of 2026, targeting increased annual production capacity of approximately 525 tonnes of NdPr metal, 30 tonnes of dysprosium oxide and 15 tonnes of terbium oxide. REalloys has secured supply rights to approximately 80% of the expanded facility's output. Together with SRC, the Company plans to advance separation trials using recycled mixed rare earth oxide feedstock in the second half of 2026, targeting separated material for potential customer qualification as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, with commercial intake of NdPr metal and dysprosium/terbium oxides from SRC expected to commence in the third quarter of 2027.

Heavy Rare Earth Metallization Facility — Fully Funded. The Company is advancing engineering and equipment procurement for its planned Heavy Rare Earth Metallization Facility, which is targeted for commissioning in the first quarter of 2028 and initial operations in the first half of 2028, with a targeted annual capacity of approximately 50 tonnes of combined dysprosium and terbium oxide feedstock.

Capital Resources and Liquidity. REalloys has committed approximately $58.3 million of capital funding for the SRC facility upgrade and its Heavy Rare Earth Metallization projects described above through to commissioning, and believes the Company's existing cash resources are sufficient to fund these projects without reliance on any additional financing transaction.

U.S. Army Enhanced Use Lease Opportunity at Tooele Army Depot. The Company announced it had been selected by the U.S. Army for exclusive negotiations toward a long-term Enhanced Use Lease at Tooele Army Depot in Utah, under which REalloys would design, finance, build, and operate heavy rare earth processing facilities at the site. The negotiation phase is scheduled to complete by mid-September 2026.

Diversifying North American Feedstock Network. During the quarter, the Company entered non-binding arrangements to explore feedstock supply with U.S. Critical Materials Corp. (Sheep Creek project, Montana), Ramaco Resources, Inc. (Brook Mine, Wyoming) and Patriot Exploration & Mining, as it works to secure additional feedstock sources ahead of expanded processing capacity coming online.

Recent Developments

Leadership Appointments. Effective June 24, 2026, Craig Cunningham was appointed Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Robert Winspear. Mr. Cunningham is a Chartered Professional Accountant with more than two decades of global and cross-border public-company finance leadership in the mining and critical minerals sectors, including prior roles as CFO of Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. and Electra Battery Materials Corporation, and twelve years in senior finance roles at Kinross Gold Corporation.

Effective September 1, 2026, Anupam Ghildyal will transition from Chief Operating Officer to the newly created role of Chief Growth Officer. Mr. Ghildyal brings a track record in corporate development, capital formation, and commercialization, having been part of the founding team at VulcanForms and having helped launch more than 20 products while raising over $1 billion in funding for early-and growth-stage manufacturing, materials, and energy companies. In his new role, he will focus on advancing the Company's strategic partnerships, feedstock and offtake relationships, and growth initiatives.

Dr. Muhammad Imran will join REalloys as Chief Operating Officer effective September 1, 2026. Dr. Imran holds a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering and most recently served as Chief Technology Officer and Vice President at the Rare Earth Elements Division at SRC, the Company's strategic processing and metallization partner. Having led SRC's rare earth element capabilities since 2020, including directing the development of SRC's Rare Earth Processing Facility in Saskatoon, his appointment gives REalloys direct operational continuity on its most significant near-term growth driver.

About REalloys Inc.

REalloys Inc. (NASDAQ: ALOY) is a U.S.-based rare earth materials company executing a mine-to-magnet strategy across upstream feedstock, midstream separation and metallization, and downstream magnet manufacturing. REalloys is focused on delivering qualified, allied-nation rare earth metals and alloys including dysprosium, terbium, and neodymium to the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Energy, NASA, the U.S. Defense Industrial Base, and the broader U.S. Organic Industrial Base.

For more information, please visit www.REalloys.com or email InvestInAmerica@REalloys.com.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/realloys-reports-second-quarter-2026-213000788.html

Massive demand generator for LREEs and HREEs

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https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/morgan-stanley-to-facilitate-1-5-trillion-in-infrastructure-initiative-638bb970?st=8wZ8RV&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Morgan Stanley said it would facilitate $1.5 trillion of capital raising, financing and related investment activity over the next decade.

The investment is part of the U.S. Innovation Infrastructure Initiative which the company said would support clients building and scaling companies, technologies and infrastructure central to the economic and national security of the U.S.

The initiative will specifically focus on innovation platforms and strategic industries, infrastructure for the innovation economy and capital for builders and growth companies.

Co-President Dan Simkowitz said the initiative comes at a period of significant investment and innovation in the U.S. across technology, infrastructure and strategic industries.

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Bank of America to Deploy $250 Billion to Bolster AI and Energy Infrastructure - WSJ article

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/bank-of-america-to-deploy-250-billion-to-bolster-ai-and-energy-infrastructure-d8471732?st=Ce5UZe&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/bank-america-launches-250-billion-090237128.html

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Bank of America said it plans to inject $250 billion into an infrastructure push that aims to boost U.S. investments in data centers, energy and critical minerals, the latest big bank to roll out flashy initiatives to enhance national competitiveness.

The second-largest bank in the nation by assets said the initiative would involve lending and investing, as well as capital markets, banking and advisory work all to support a “new wave of infrastructure investment.” It said the investments could create tens of thousands jobs along the way. 

Bank of America is joining its peers in launching similar national campaigns that together would put trillions of dollars in capital toward boosting U.S. interests. The endeavors come against a backdrop of an administration that has exerted extraordinary pressure on American companies.

Banks have been under particular scrutiny, including probes into whether they “debanked” clients, a personal matter to President Trump and his family. In January, Trump alleged JPMorgan Chase improperly closed his accounts in a multibillion-dollar lawsuit. The bank has denied it acted illegally in closing the accounts.

On Monday, Morgan Stanley said it would facilitate its own $1.5 trillion infrastructure initiative that will focus on innovation platforms and strategic industries, and infrastructure for the innovation economy. Both Morgan Stanley and Bank of America touted their investments as part of the U.S.’s 250th birthday, celebrated last month.

JPMorgan has announced the bank would use its own capital to invest directly in companies it has defined as critical to national security and economic self-sufficiency, an inherently riskier strategy but also potentially more profitable. It has also rolled out an initiative to support homeownership in the U.S.

Bank of America said its initiative will target key infrastructure behind the artificial-intelligence boom, such as data centers and semiconductors, as well as hardware, chips and equipment. It will also cover conventional and renewable power generation and energy storage, in addition to core infrastructure such as transportation, natural gas, water systems and critical minerals.

It will be measured from the start of this year into the middle of 2027.

Bank of America doesn’t intend to focus on equity investments as part of its initiative, but it hasn’t taken the option off the table, Karen Fang, the bank’s global head of infrastructure and sustainable finance and co-head of global capital solutions, said in an interview.

“I wouldn’t say never because for the right projects at the right time, maybe,” Fang said.

Worth reading this short article

HREE inputs are imperative for this AI Infrastructure.

BlackRock's 6.2% ownership in ALOY is tied to their AI businesses (and beyond).

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Breakdown

• Nvidia reached a deal with several major Wall Street firms to help raise $500 billion to fund the AI infrastructure build-out.
• Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs and KKR agreed to help assemble the financing.
• The financing would involve different vehicles rather than one large collaboration, and commitments could grow larger than $500 billion.

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Apollo and Blackstone earlier this year struck a deal with Broadcom to set up a similar financing platform for the chipmaker’s customers. The platform will offer financing to companies like Anthropic to pay for computing power from chips developed by Broadcom, including Google’s processing units.

The financing could help signal to stock investors that Nvidia and its partners in the artificial-intelligence boom have the firepower to build the infrastructure they need. Debt investors have lent companies hundreds of billions of dollars over the past year through direct bond sales and debt deals tied to individual data-center projects.

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https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/nvidia-wall-street-firms-strike-ai-financing-deal-targeting-500-billion-c50377db?st=LVR4Qb&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

150k shares, 8:10am EST

I do not see news, does anyone know the catalyst this morning?

Thank you to everyone who has joined and continues to visit this community!

We’ve experienced pretty strong growth in membership, overall and unique visitors this Summer; it’s great to see so many of you stopping by, using this as a resource.

Since joining as a Mod in mid-June, my goal has been to help keep this space active, valuable, and engaging. While our usership data are solid, a subreddit is only as strong as its active voices.

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If you’ve been lurking, reading along, or waiting for the right moment, well, feel free to share your thoughts, drop a comment, create a post, share viable content with other subreddits that you feel might benefit from this content.

If you have a question, an insight, a project, or a topic you want to discuss? Go ahead and create a post. This platform is only viable if there are multiple contributors.

Start conversations, no contribution is too small to get a good discussion going. All the Mods ask, be nice, encouraging and no spam

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Thank you to everyone actively posting and commenting, and a warm welcome to all our newer members, especially our users in the GCC Nations, Greenland, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU ----> I can view usership data, it's truly wonderful and encouraging that so many international folks are using this subreddit.

Let’s keep building this community together.

A black swan is something that is outside of the prevailing realm of expectations. And, when it occurs, it has enormous consequences. Black swans also tend to rake up a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacks. “Well, obviously this was going to happen” may be overheard frequently- in the near future, but after the black swan events have come and gone. At the time of their occurrence, however, they are revolutionary and unforeseen.

In the case of scandium, these 15-tonne black swans are the matches- latent demand is the fuel. Latent demand is demand that exists in theory, but doesn’t necessarily show up due to a variety of constraints. Maybe everyone wants that thing, but that thing is not readily available. The supply is intermittent or unreliable. Maybe everyone wants that thing, but it’s illegal. Actual purchases of that thing might be incredibly small, but misrepresent the demand by several orders of magnitude. Remove a single constraint (like creating reliable supply) and the latent demand begins to reveal itself. The demand and number of transactions and value of those transactions in that new market are likely to exceed any previous estimates that were based on the outdated reality as a baseline. It’s not a bigger market than existed previously. It’s a fundamentally new market. I believe that the agreement between Lockheed Martin and Sunrise Energy Metals, and the MOU between Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Developments, are black-swan-scale signals revealing the latent demand for scandium- and a preview to an entirely new market forming in front of us.

In October of 2025, Lockheed Martin and Sunrise Energy Metals announced an agreement granting Lockheed the option to purchase the first 15 tonnes per year of scandium oxide produced during each of the first five years of mining operations. That was the first black swan. In August of 2026, Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Developments issued a non-binding MOU regarding the potential purchase of up to 15 tonnes of scandium oxide per year, in either oxide form or the form of aluminum-scandium alloys, over the next ten years. That was the second black swan. There needn’t be a third.

These agreements have yet to take their final form. These are not guaranteed purchases. We don’t know, and Lockheed Martin may not know, exactly how much scandium oxide they are likely to need. Skunk Works has said it appreciates NioCorp's work establishing a domestic source of scandium oxide and Al-Sc alloying capabilities and will continue evaluating that supply as part of its broader alloy-development efforts. Separately, the Pentagon-funded NioCorp/Skunk Works program is designed to produce prototype Al-Sc components intended to expand the capabilities of modern fighter aircraft. Al-Sc alloys can improve strength, weldability and joint performance, corrosion resistance, fatigue performance, microstructural and thermal stability, and additive-manufacturing behavior. Those properties can in turn enable lighter, more integrated structures and cascading manufacturing benefits. If Lockheed moves from today's alloy/component-development work into broader deployment, it is difficult to imagine it doing so without first establishing reliable scandium supply. You might say, "So what? Lockheed Martin may start using more scandium, and they might buy it from reliable, Western sources. That is great for scandium producers, but it is not transformational. The agreements aren’t even guaranteed demand.” You would be correct.

The size is the signal. The size is the swan.

The US Geological Survey estimated that 2025 global consumption of scandium oxide was about 60 tonnes. The United States, which is fully import dependent, is estimated to have imported about 4 tonnes of scandium oxide in 2025. 4 tonnes. That’s it.

Yet, Lockheed Martin just made public that they want the option to buy up to 15 tonnes per year from Sunrise. They didn’t pull these numbers out of thin air. They didn’t call the restaurant to book a table of 40, just in case, if they think they may only be a table of 4. They didn't publicly discuss tables of 40 with two separate restaurants if they believed there was no realistic scenario in which they would ever need anything remotely approaching that scale. Lockheed and Sunrise are cooperating not simply around future supply: they are testing and performing qualification work intended to accelerate adoption of scandium-containing components in Lockheed product platforms. Lockheed is pursuing a parallel—but even more downstream-oriented—relationship with NioCorp. Less than ten months after the first black swan, the second black swan came in and corroborated the first. Lockheed Martin tells the world that they have interest in potentially purchasing up to 15 tonnes per year from NioCorp. These aren’t guarantees to buy. It isn’t 30 tonnes per year already sold. It is the world's largest defense contractor publicly contemplating 15-tonne-per-year-scale scandium supply arrangements with two separate Western-aligned projects. The size and the source are the signals. Double-digit scandium agreements are not completely without precedent: NioCorp previously signed a conditional commercial sales agreement with Traxys covering up to 12 tonnes per year. But Traxys was a metals marketer. Lockheed is an end-user simultaneously involved in developing and qualifying Al-Sc defense applications. That makes these 15-tonne figures fundamentally different.

We don’t know how much Lockheed will ultimately purchase each year. What if it is only 10 tonnes per year? If it were only 10, they would be purchasing 2.5x what the entire U.S. imported last year. What if it is 20 tonnes per year? Lockheed is spending real time and resources developing two Western-aligned scandium supply and qualification pathways. My interpretation is that it is helping establish the market and supply infrastructure in advance, so that it can have reliable access. I believe they are spending their resources to build the market, so that they get to be the first ones in line. They should want to be first in line, because if you think you might need 20 tonnes per year, if global production sits at an estimated 80 tonnes per year, or even 200 tonnes per year- you need to be at front, or near it. Importantly, the two 15-tonne ceilings may ultimately be additive, partially additive, or simply provide sourcing redundancy; the public agreements do not tell us. However, it doesn’t look like they are changing the market. They are helping to build it, so that they are positioned to have reliable access to it.

How much will Northrop Grumman want? SpaceX? RTX? What about our allied defense primes? How much will be designed into the rapidly expanding drone industry? What about Boeing and Airbus? Do they want some lighter and stronger materials? Scandium’s benefits have the ability to penetrate into semiconductor manufacturing, the automotive industry, additive manufacturing, space, rail, marine and shipbuilding. Sunrise plans to produce 60 tonnes per year and get to production in 2028. NioCorp plans approximately 100 tonnes per year; CEO Mark Smith has said that, if everything goes well, the company could begin partial production in late 2029 and achieve a full year of production in 2030.

I have read concerns that when all this supply finally comes onto the market, it’s going to crush the prices and these company’s valuations. I think that is misguided. The question isn’t- will the demand exist for 200-300 tonnes per year IF these projects come online? I believe the question should be- will there ever be any leftover after the defense primes and space industry get what they want? Will it all be reserved well before it’s pulled out of the ground? If it is index priced, will industries that are less price sensitive be the only ones able to afford it- defense, space, specialty aerospace? How much supply will we need to get prices low enough to penetrate further into semiconductors and additive manufacturing? IF price is ever low enough, the two potentially enormous sources of demand could be waiting right there to provide the market floor- commercial aerospace and automotive. We hear a lot about price floors today. They are very important, and may be very critical to getting a huge variety of REE and critical minerals projects off the ground. In the case of scandium? In a few years, we may need to start talking about price ceilings.

Entirely my own opinions and speculation- based on a few key facts and the relationships I see between them. Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

 p.s. Sunrise’s Syerston project is much less capital intensive. Sunrise’s ability to get to production faster, may be an incredible boon for NioCorp’s downstream, high-margin, valuation optionality- NAMA. NAMA may be able to accelerate their demand creation and supply build-out by having potential access to Western, reliable scandium oxide well before Elk Creek is producing its own. This isn’t guaranteed, and they will likely, ultimately become competitors down the road. There is no disclosed agreement between the two. However, Sunrise’s Lockheed partnership and OSC conditional loan commitment are not negatives for NioCorp, in my opinion. This isn’t a zero sum game right now, not even close. We haven’t even gotten close to seeing how big the game is. The 2022 NioCorp DFS used $3,675/kg as the selling price for scandium oxide. That price was based on 2019 product pricing. I look forward to the update.