Micron Technology at $1,075: how much upside is left?
My model says some optimism is already priced into Micron Technology.
At $1,074.89, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 11.2% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 108.6% a year (FY2023-FY2026). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.
Two operating details behind the valuation:
- Q4 FY2026: Micron Technology's latest-quarter revenue grew 379% year over year, compared with 346% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.
- Micron Technology's reported FCF margin is 44.3%, up from 10.1% in the oldest comparable period.
The price is above my $974 base case but below my $2,070 bull case. There may still be upside, but the company needs to beat my central case to justify it.
Model assumptions: 11.8% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.
What could break the case: Semiconductors are cyclical.
Is there enough upside left for the risk?
The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/d-thEVfEcTc
Snapshot: 2026-10-03. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.