u/TheExpectationGap

My model says some optimism is already priced into Micron Technology.

At $1,074.89, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 11.2% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 108.6% a year (FY2023-FY2026). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.

Two operating details behind the valuation:

- Q4 FY2026: Micron Technology's latest-quarter revenue grew 379% year over year, compared with 346% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.

- Micron Technology's reported FCF margin is 44.3%, up from 10.1% in the oldest comparable period.

The price is above my $974 base case but below my $2,070 bull case. There may still be upside, but the company needs to beat my central case to justify it.

Model assumptions: 11.8% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.

What could break the case: Semiconductors are cyclical.

Is there enough upside left for the risk?

The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/d-thEVfEcTc

Snapshot: 2026-10-03. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.

The market is asking a lot from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

At $456.19, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 28.9% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 24% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.

Two operating details behind the valuation:

- Q2 2026: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's latest-quarter revenue grew 36.0% year over year. For context, its multi-year revenue CAGR is 18.9%; that comparison spans a different time horizon.

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's reported FCF margin is 25.3%, up from 23.0% in the oldest comparable period.

Even my bull case is only $291, below today's $456.19 price. That is a demanding hurdle. Either the company keeps outperforming for years, or the stock has little room for disappointment.

Model assumptions: 11.7% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.

What could break the case: Semiconductors are cyclical.

Is the market right to expect more, or is the stock priced for too much?

The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/DrCF1rhzNsM

Snapshot: 2026-10-01. I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.

Uber Technologies looks cheap in my model — maybe suspiciously cheap.

At $69.62, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 4.1% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 192.5% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.

Two operating details behind the valuation:

- Q2 FY2026: Uber Technologies' latest-quarter revenue grew 12.2% year over year, compared with 14.5% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.

- Uber Technologies' reported FCF margin is 18.3%, up from 1.2% in the oldest comparable period.

Even my bear case is $72, above today's $69.62 price. That gap could be an opportunity — or a warning that my assumptions are too optimistic.

Model assumptions: 10.2% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.

What could break the case: Riders, merchants and drivers can shift activity to competing services.

What risk am I missing?

The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/ZRpszzSlhIg

Snapshot: 2026-09-26. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.

DoorDash just reported another pretty strong quarter.

Q2 2026:

• Revenue: $4.45B, +36% YoY

• Marketplace GOV: $33.1B, +36% YoY

• Total Orders: 970M, +27% YoY

• Adjusted EBITDA: $914M, +40% YoY

• Free Cash Flow: $742M vs. $355M last year

The Deliveroo acquisition obviously boosts the headline growth numbers, but even excluding Deliveroo, revenue still grew 24% and GOV grew 23%.

What I find more interesting is that DoorDash is increasingly becoming more than just a US restaurant delivery business.

Grocery and retail continue to grow, international unit economics are improving, DashPass remains strong, and management is investing in AI, its new global technology platform and autonomous delivery.

For Q3, management is guiding for $33–34B in GOV and $950M–$1.1B in adjusted EBITDA.

So operationally, there is a lot to like.

But DASH isn't exactly priced like a struggling delivery company either.

That made me interested in the opposite question:

Instead of trying to guess what DoorDash is worth, what does the current stock price already assume about future free cash flow growth?

I ran a reverse DCF on DoorDash and compared those implied expectations with its actual growth, margins and latest Q2 numbers.

The result was more interesting than I expected.

I break down the full model here:

https://youtu.be/rAWW9-1qNf8

Curious what people think — what assumption would you challenge first in a DoorDash valuation?

AI-assisted wording. Analysis/model is my own.

The market is asking a lot from Micron Technology.

At $924.03, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 20.2% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF fell about 18.8% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.

Two operating details behind the valuation:

- Q3 FY2026: Micron Technology's latest-quarter revenue grew 346% year over year, compared with 196% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.

- Micron Technology's reported FCF margin is 29.0%, up from 10.1% in the oldest comparable period.

Even my bull case is only $594, below today's $924.03 price. That is a demanding hurdle. Either the company keeps outperforming for years, or the stock has little room for disappointment.

Model assumptions: 11.5% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.

What could break the case: Semiconductors are cyclical.

Is the market right to expect more, or is the stock priced for too much?

The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/Y1Bx9S_V5ck

Snapshot: 2026-09-15. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.

Broadcom just reported a pretty insane quarter, but I think the more interesting question is whether the valuation already assumes too much of this AI growth.

A few numbers from Q3 FY2026:

• Revenue: $29.6B, up 86% YoY

• Semiconductor revenue: $20.8B, up 127%

• AI semiconductor revenue: $16.7B, up 221% YoY

• Infrastructure software revenue: $8.8B, up 29%

• Free cash flow: $13.7B — around 46% of revenue

• Non-GAAP EPS: $3.32, up 96%

The AI numbers are obviously the headline.

Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue went from $10.8B in Q2 to $16.7B in Q3, and management is now expecting around $21.7B in Q4.

That would mean Broadcom is potentially doing more than $20B of AI semiconductor revenue in a single quarter.

And this isn't just Nvidia-style GPU exposure. Broadcom is benefiting from custom AI accelerators and networking as hyperscalers increasingly build their own AI infrastructure.

The other thing that stands out to me is the cash generation. $13.7B of FCF on $29.6B of revenue is an absurdly strong conversion rate, especially while the company is growing this quickly.

For Q4, management is guiding for roughly $34.8B in revenue, which would be another 93% YoY increase.

So fundamentally, it's difficult to argue that Broadcom isn't executing.

The harder question is the stock price.

At some point, a great company can still become a bad investment if the valuation requires years of near-perfect execution.

I ran Broadcom through my DCF/reverse DCF model to see what kind of growth the current valuation is actually pricing in.

Video with the full model and assumptions:

https://youtu.be/TKXmgF39WCo

Curious what people here think:

Is Broadcom becoming one of the biggest long-term winners from AI infrastructure, or is too much of that future already priced into AVGO?

AI-assisted writing. Analysis, assumptions and conclusions are my own.

A few numbers that stood out:

• Revenue: $3.58B, up 34% YoY
• GMV: $115.6B, up 32%
• Operating income: $488M, up 68%
• Free cash flow: $654M, up 55%
• FCF margin improved to 18% from 16%

Merchant Solutions was the main growth driver, up 37% to $2.78B, while Subscription Solutions grew 22%.

Shopify Payments penetration also increased from 64% to 68% of GMV, meaning Shopify processed roughly $78B through its own payments ecosystem during the quarter.

The AI angle is getting more interesting too. Shopify is increasingly positioning itself as infrastructure for AI-driven commerce, with products being surfaced through platforms like ChatGPT, Gemini and Microsoft Copilot.

The obvious issue is valuation.

34% revenue growth and 55% FCF growth are impressive for a company already doing more than $100B in quarterly GMV , but at the current valuation, the market is also assuming Shopify keeps executing extremely well.

I went through the latest quarter and built a valuation around the numbers to see what the stock could actually be worth.

Full analysis here:
https://youtu.be/yq7mQ7YiXoI

Curious what everyone thinks , is Shopify's growth still strong enough to justify the premium valuation?

Disclosure: AI assisted.

I’ve been looking through Coinbase’s Q2 results, and I think the interesting part of the story is increasingly what happens outside the traditional transaction business.

Trading activity will always make Coinbase’s results volatile, but the company is becoming more diversified through areas like stablecoins, subscriptions & services, custody, and its broader crypto infrastructure.

That creates an interesting valuation question.

If crypto activity continues to grow over the long term, Coinbase obviously benefits. But the bigger question for me is whether COIN can eventually be valued more like a financial/crypto infrastructure platform rather than primarily as a leveraged bet on crypto trading volumes.

I went through the Q2 numbers, the main risks and my valuation in a new analysis:

YouTube: https://youtu.be/6\\\_CE8vtq0as

What do you think is the biggest risk to Coinbase from here , valuation, crypto cycle dependence, regulation, or competition?

AI disclosure: AI assisted with editing and structuring this post. The analysis and investment conclusions are my own.

I’ve been looking through Coinbase’s Q2 results, and I think the interesting part of the story is increasingly what happens outside the traditional transaction business.

Trading activity will always make Coinbase’s results volatile, but the company is becoming more diversified through areas like stablecoins, subscriptions & services, custody, and its broader crypto infrastructure.

That creates an interesting valuation question.

If crypto activity continues to grow over the long term, Coinbase obviously benefits. But the bigger question for me is whether COIN can eventually be valued more like a financial/crypto infrastructure platform rather than primarily as a leveraged bet on crypto trading volumes.

I went through the Q2 numbers, the main risks and my valuation in a new analysis:

YouTube: https://youtu.be/6\_CE8vtq0as

What do you think is the biggest risk to Coinbase from here , valuation, crypto cycle dependence, regulation, or competition?

AI disclosure: AI assisted with editing and structuring this post. The analysis and investment conclusions are my own.

I took a closer look at Palantir after its latest results, and it's hard to argue with the operational performance.

Palantir continues to benefit from strong demand for its AI platform, with particularly impressive growth in the US commercial business. At the same time, the company is highly profitable, generates strong free cash flow and has a very strong balance sheet.

That makes Palantir an interesting company to value because the main question isn't really whether the business is good.

It's how good does it need to become to justify the current valuation?

For me, there are two sides to the investment case:

Bull case:

Palantir could remain one of the major beneficiaries of enterprise AI adoption. If AIP continues to drive rapid commercial growth while margins expand, today's numbers could look relatively small several years from now.

Bear case:

The valuation already assumes a lot of future success. Even a great company can produce disappointing returns if you pay a price that requires near-perfect execution for many years.

I made a full valuation video where I go through Palantir's growth, margins, free cash flow and my DCF assumptions:

https://youtu.be/TYHXF\_M7u6w

What do you think about PLTR at the current valuation?

Would you pay a premium for the growth and AI exposure, or is too much future growth already priced into the stock?

AI-assisted: AI was used to help structure and edit parts of this post. The analysis and conclusions are my own.

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Arm just reported another strong quarter.

Revenue came in at $1.29B, up 22% YoY. Royalty revenue grew 22% to $715M, while license revenue increased 23% to $574M.

What stands out to me is how much of the Arm story is shifting beyond smartphones. AI infrastructure and data centers are becoming increasingly important, and that could give Arm a much larger addressable market over time.

The numbers are strong, but Arm is also priced like a company expected to deliver a lot of growth for many years. That makes the valuation the interesting part for me. A great company isn't necessarily a great investment at every price.

I went through the latest numbers, growth assumptions and valuation in my newest video:

https://youtu.be/N9mKJUXo\_zE

What do you think about Arm at the current valuation? Does the AI/data center opportunity justify the premium, or are expectations simply too high?

AI assisted: Used AI to help with wording/formatting. The analysis and opinions are my own.

Netflix just reported Q2 and the business continues to put up pretty strong numbers.

Revenue came in at $12.56B, up 13% YoY, while operating income reached $4.19B. Net income was $3.4B, up around 9%. The operating margin was still very strong at 33.4%.

What I find more interesting is the advertising side. It’s growing quickly, but still came in below expectations this quarter. That’s probably one of the biggest things to watch going forward, especially if ads are supposed to become a meaningful second growth engine for Netflix.

The stock sold off after earnings, mainly because the outlook wasn’t quite as strong as the market wanted. So to me the question isn’t really whether Netflix is a good business — it clearly is. The question is how much growth is already priced into the stock.

I went through the Q2 numbers, valuation and what I think Netflix needs to deliver from here in my latest video:

https://youtu.be/RP\\\_2hybZtIs

Curious what people think about Netflix at the current valuation. Still attractive, or does the price leave too little room for disappointment?

Disclosure: I \[own / don’t own\] Netflix shares.

AI assisted: Used AI to help with wording/formatting. The analysis and opinions are my own.