r/VisualStockResearch

Palantir trades at roughly 110x earnings, which looks extremely expensive on the surface.

But here is the interesting part:

This scenario assumes PLTR grows earnings 50% annually for five years while its P/E falls all the way from 110x to 50x.

Even with that massive multiple compression, the stock could still generate:

• 245% total return
• 28% annualized return
• 659% cumulative earnings growth

That is what extreme growth can do.

The real debate is not whether PLTR is expensive. It clearly is.

The debate is whether Palantir can grow fast enough for long enough to make today’s valuation look reasonable in hindsight.

Is 50% annual earnings growth realistic, or is this still too optimistic?

Revenue growth is not everything, but a clean, consistent chart usually tells you a lot about the quality of a business.

Here is my ranking:

S Tier

$NOW — ServiceNow

This is the crown jewel of revenue charts.

High growth, consistent growth, and still scaling. I do not think I have seen a prettier revenue chart.

A Tier

$MSFT — Microsoft

Almost Costco-like consistency, but with much higher growth.

Revenue slowed in 2023, but growth is picking back up. Sticky subscriptions make this one of the cleanest mega-cap charts.

$NVDA — Nvidia

The post-2023 revenue growth is almost impossible to comprehend.

Very few mega-caps have ever grown like this, but the cyclicality keeps it out of S tier.

$MA — Mastercard

Very consistent, high-quality growth.

Revenue grows alongside global spending, digital payments, and card volume. This might be S tier if COVID had not distorted the chart.

$ADBE — Adobe

One of the most linear revenue charts I have seen.

Not parabolic, just steady 10–20% growth for years. Most software companies would kill for this chart.

B Tier

$COST — Costco

Extremely consistent, but lower growth.

You know what you are getting, and you know roughly what the average year will look like. Not the fastest-growing chart, but one of the most reliable.

$AVGO — Broadcom

Strong recent growth, but more cyclical than the cleanest compounders.

Great business, but the 2017–2023 portion of the chart was not flawless enough for A tier.

$AMZN — Amazon

This one may surprise people.

The chart is still excellent, but growth has slowed from more than 20% to the low-to-high teens. Still reliable, but the old growth rate is missing.

Without the explosive growth cycle, this would probably rank much lower.

C Tier

$TSLA — Tesla

The 2020–2023 growth was incredible, but revenue has basically gone nowhere since.

The chart could improve quickly if the next growth cycle arrives, but right now it is difficult to rank it any higher.

D Tier

$NKE — Nike

This is the definition of a value trap to me.

Slow growth turned into no growth, while On and Hoka continue taking brand share. I would not touch this right now.

What would you move up or down?

Everyone knows Amazon for e-commerce and AWS.

But Amazon Ads has quietly become one of the largest advertising businesses in the world.

- TTM revenue has grown $25B to $72B in under 5 years.
- Nearly tripled in size.
- Not a single down quarter over that span.
- Now generating $72B annually from advertising alone.

The reason is simple: Amazon has some of the highest-intent shoppers on the internet. Brands are willing to pay a premium to advertise to people who are already searching for products they want to buy.

It’s easy to think of Amazon as “just” an online retailer, but the advertising business is now larger than many Fortune 500 companies by itself—and it’s still compounding at an impressive rate.

What other “hidden” business inside a public company do you think deserves more attention?

Google has grown trailing twelve-month revenue from under $200B to more than $430B, while Cloud, subscriptions, and YouTube have become increasingly meaningful contributors.

Search still dominates, but Google is gradually becoming a much more diversified business.

Buffett and Ackman both run concentrated portfolios, but their biggest bets look very different.

Bill Ackman’s top five holdings:

• Brookfield — 17.62%
• Amazon — 17.39%
• Uber — 15.71%
• Microsoft — 15.26%
• Restaurant Brands — 12.20%

Warren Buffett’s top five holdings:

• Apple — 21.99%
• American Express — 17.43%
• Coca-Cola — 11.56%
• Bank of America — 9.52%
• Chevron — 6.64%

You can only own one for the next 10 years, who you taking: Ackman or Buffett?

Google has grown revenue at an 18.1% CAGR since 2017, compared with 15.5% for Microsoft, and now generates over $100B more annually. Both stocks remain below their 52-week highs, making this comparison even more interesting.

One of the biggest criticisms of Reddit has been stock-based compensation.

But looking at the trend, I think that concern is becoming much less significant.

The huge spike in Q1 2024 was a one-time IPO-related expense. Outside of that quarter, SBC has stayed relatively flat while free cash flow has taken off.

- Free cash flow reached $311M last quarter.
- Stock-based compensation was just $68M.
- Free cash flow has grown much faster than SBC.
- SBC is becoming a much smaller percentage of the cash Reddit generates.
- That’s exactly what you want to see as a shareholder.

The valuation is still the biggest debate, but this is a really encouraging trend that I don’t think gets enough attention.

If you enjoy digging into company fundamentals like these, I built ekonix to visualize revenue, free cash flow, SBC, margins, valuation, and much more.

The first week is on us if you want to check it out:
ekonix

Reddit just received a 97/100 AI score, the highest score I have seen so far.

The fundamentals tell the story:

• $2.47B in TTM revenue
• $707.5M in TTM earnings
• 27.8% operating margin
• 28.6% net margin
• $3.48B in assets versus just $304.6M in liabilities

Reddit has quickly moved beyond the “high-growth but unprofitable” phase. It is now producing strong margins, meaningful earnings, and maintaining a very clean balance sheet.

The valuation is still the main debate, but at 55x PE and growing 40% over the next couple years, that valuation is not too far fetched...

PLTR has pulled back hard from highs, but today it bounced about 7.8% to $125.73 after opening near $120.

Zoom out and the business is still compounding: quarterly revenue is up 756% total, a 39% CAGR since 2020.

Karp’s CNBC interview today was classic Karp: blunt, weirdly intense, but on-message. His point was that a lot of AI is being oversold, while Palantir is focused on software that actually plugs into enterprise workflows.

That is basically the PLTR bull case.

The bear case is valuation. Even after the dip, it is still expensive. But the chart does not look like a broken business. It looks like a high-expectation stock pulling back while the underlying revenue keeps climbing.

AMD is getting more attention lately, but I still think Nvidia is the clear winner here.

The biggest difference is not just the chips. It is the business.

Jensen is in China doing what he does best: staying close to customers, governments, and major buyers while keeping Nvidia at the center of the semiconductor conversation. Whether every deal gets done or not, Nvidia is still the company everyone wants in the room.

AMD and Nvidia both have the same projected long(er) term growth. Over the next 3 years, they both are projected to grow around 40% revenue CAGR.

Nvidia is the Swiss Army knife of semiconductors. Their chips are not limited to one narrow use case. Customers can use them across gaming, data centers, AI, simulation, visualization, robotics, and enterprise workloads. That flexibility makes Nvidia harder to replace because users are not just buying performance — they are buying optionality.

That matters because customers are not just buying a chip. They are buying reliability, support, compatibility, and an ecosystem that is already deeply embedded.

The valuation gap is what makes this even more interesting. Nvidia trades around 50x earnings, while AMD trades closer to 150x earnings.

So the stronger company, with the deeper ecosystem and more leverage across the semiconductor stack, is trading at roughly one-third of AMD’s earnings multiple while projected to grow revenue at the same CAGR for the next 3 years...

AMD is a great company.

Nvidia still looks like the platform.

Assuming 50% annual earnings growth and a decline from 144× earnings to 50×, you still get a 21.4% expected CAGR.

Is 50× earnings a reasonable terminal multiple for Palantir in five years?

This is not a ranking of the best companies. It is a ranking of which stocks I believe offer the best potential returns from their current valuations.

S Tier: Meta

Meta is my clear favorite.

The company is still growing quickly, generates massive free cash flow, has some of the highest margins in the market, and trades at a reasonable valuation relative to its growth.

Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp give Meta unmatched distribution, while AI is already improving engagement and advertising performance.

Meta has the best combination of growth, profitability, valuation, and upside in the group.

A Tier: Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia

Amazon

Amazon has multiple ways to win through AWS, advertising, retail, logistics, and margin expansion.

The company does not need explosive revenue growth for earnings to increase significantly. Even small improvements in retail margins can create substantial operating income.

Microsoft

Microsoft might be the safest company in the group.

Its products are deeply embedded in businesses, revenue is highly recurring, and it can distribute AI through Azure, Office, GitHub, and its existing ecosystem.

The only reason it is not S tier is that investors already recognize how strong the business is.

Nvidia

Nvidia is the clear leader in AI infrastructure and may have the strongest current fundamentals of any company here.

The risk is that semiconductors are cyclical and expectations are already extremely high. Nvidia must continue delivering extraordinary results to outperform.

B Tier: Google and Tesla

Google

Google remains one of my favorite companies and one of my largest positions.

Search, YouTube, Cloud, Waymo, and Gemini provide multiple growth engines, but the stock is no longer as obviously cheap as it was previously.

I still expect strong returns, but I currently see more upside in Meta and Amazon.

Tesla

Tesla has enormous upside if autonomy, robotics, and energy succeed.

The problem is that the current valuation already assumes Tesla will become much more than an automaker. The potential is massive, but so is the execution risk.

D Tier: Apple

Apple is an incredible company, but I believe it has the weakest risk-reward in the group.

Revenue growth has been limited, yet the stock continues to trade at a premium valuation.

Buybacks and services can support earnings, but Apple needs another meaningful growth engine to justify its current multiple.

Final Ranking

S Tier: Meta

A Tier: Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia

B Tier: Google, Tesla

D Tier: Apple

The best company is not always the best investment. Future returns depend on both business performance and how much growth is already priced into the stock.

How would you rank the Magnificent 7 today?

Reddit:
• Approximately 40% growth
• 47x earnings

AppLovin:
• Approximately 40% growth
• 41x earnings

Neither stock is cheap in absolute terms, but paying a low-to-mid 40s earnings multiple for businesses growing around 40% looks reasonable compared with many slower-growing companies trading at similar valuations.

I have been consistently adding to both over the past month.

They carry more risk than the mega-caps, but the upside could be significantly greater if their growth continues.

Which offers the better risk/reward from here: $APP or $RDDT?

Netflix has compounded quarterly revenue at nearly 20% since 2016, yet the stock is roughly 45% below its previous high. Is this a genuine slowdown—or an opportunity created by fear?

Clifford Sosin currently has 81.7% of his $1.7 billion disclosed portfolio invested in Carvana, making it one of the most concentrated institutional bets I have seen. Carvana’s latest quarterly revenue grew 52%, retail units grew 40%, and management is targeting 3 million annual retail sales by 2030–2035, which would require roughly 18%–38% annual unit growth from here. 

At roughly 33x trailing earnings, Carvana is not traditionally cheap, but it is also growing far faster than the average company. The bull case is that its national inventory, online purchasing experience and expanding ADESA reconditioning network allow it to keep taking share from the highly fragmented used-car dealership industry; the risk is that reconditioning costs rise and current margins prove difficult to maintain. 

Does Carvana’s future growth justify the valuation, or has Sosin allowed conviction to become concentration?