u/ekonixlab

I understand the obvious answer: growth has slowed.

But Duolingo is still growing revenue ~18%, DAUs grew 23%, the business is profitable and subscription revenue continues to compound at a very high rate.

Look at the chart below. Subscription revenue alone has gone from roughly $85M/quarter to $258M/quarter in about 3 years.

The biggest issue seems to be that management is intentionally prioritizing user growth over near-term monetization. That means slower bookings growth today, but potentially a much larger user base to monetize later.

The market clearly hates that tradeoff.

I understand DUOL deserved a valuation reset from where it was trading when revenue was growing 40%+, but at some point the question becomes:

How much of the slowdown is already priced in?

You still have:

• 23% DAU growth
• ~18% revenue growth
• a profitable business
• recurring subscription revenue
• extremely strong retention/engagement
• management expecting 20%+ DAU growth through the rest of 2026

Maybe I’m missing something, but the decline seems excessive relative to what has actually happened to the underlying business.

What’s the bear case from here?

The market seems high but there is still a lot of value.

What is your number 1 pick?

Ackman just bought back into Netflix after exiting in 2022

The stock is getting hit partly over engagement concerns, which reminds me a little of 2022 when the market became obsessed with subscriber losses. Meanwhile, the broader business looks much stronger today: margins and free cash flow have improved substantially.

I generally like situations where the market hones in on one KPI while the underlying fundamentals remain solid.
Analysts are projecting roughly 20% annual EPS growth over the next 3–5 years.

Using a 25x P/E today, 20% earnings growth, and assuming the multiple actually contracts to 20x, you still get roughly:
14.8% CAGR → 99% total return in 5 years.

Basically doubling your money despite multiple compression.

Feels like a pretty decent margin of safety if the earnings growth actually shows up.

After Ackman bought, I would assume there may be some buyers

I want to jump in, but not sure where I would fund it. I have a little bit of cash but would need to sell something to grab some shares

Any takers?

Pershing Square announced six new investments:

Visa
Mastercard
Netflix
S&P Global
Intercontinental Exchange
Alcon

One interesting one is Netflix. Ackman previously owned Netflix, sold the position in 2022, and is now buying back in.

Of the six, the three I have shown here — Netflix, Mastercard and S&P Global — are the ones I think have the most upside.

I view Visa and Mastercard as essentially the same thesis, so I only included Mastercard in the chart.

Since 2017:

Netflix revenue: ~$11B → ~$47B
CAGR: 19.1%

Mastercard revenue: ~$11B → ~$34B
CAGR: 13.3%

S&P Global revenue: ~$5.8B → ~$16B
CAGR: 12.1%

The overall theme is pretty clear: high-quality businesses with strong competitive positions, recurring revenue and long runways for earnings growth.

Pretty interesting group of companies to add all at once.

Which of the six do you think has the most upside?

These are three companies I’m currently adding to, for very different reasons.

Reddit — The highest-growth name of the three. The combination of user growth, improving monetization and rapidly expanding profitability is what interests me most. The big question is how much of that growth can be sustained as the business scales.

Uber — Probably the most balanced of the three. The platform is still growing trips and bookings around 20% while earnings and cash flow are growing much faster. I also think the long-term AV opportunity is interesting.

Adobe — Almost the opposite thesis. The market is extremely worried about AI disruption, while the underlying business is still growing double digits. I’m buying it more as a valuation/AI pessimism play than a high-growth play.

I don’t expect all three to perform the same way, but I like the risk/reward for different reasons.

If you had to pick just one to own for the next 5 years, which would it be?

Kind of interesting that three of the biggest names in digital advertising all sold off hard after their most recent earnings.

APP:
Revenue +53% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA +58%
Stock fell ~19% the next day

RDDT:
Revenue +61% YoY
Revenue beat expectations by ~10%
Q3 guidance also beat expectations
Stock fell ~21% the next day

META:
Revenue +28% YoY
Advertising revenue +27%
Ad impressions +14%
Stock fell ~10% after earnings

Obviously there were reasons for each selloff. AppLovin had a slight miss and concerns around its AI model rollout, Reddit had concerns around user growth/growth deceleration, and Meta had weaker earnings and massive spending.

But it’s still pretty wild seeing companies growing revenue 28%, 53% and 61% all get hit this hard immediately after earnings.

Seems like expectations across digital advertising were incredibly high going into this quarter.

Tesla and Ford now generate revenue on a completely different scale than they did a decade ago.

Tesla TTM revenue: ~$98B
Ford TTM revenue: ~$190B
Tesla revenue CAGR: ~30%
Ford revenue CAGR: ~2.5%

But the valuation gap is even crazier:

Tesla market cap: ~$1.3T
Ford market cap: ~$59B
Tesla is worth ~22x Ford despite generating roughly half the revenue

Obviously Tesla is being valued on much more than its current auto business, but this really shows how much future growth is already priced in.

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Duolingo’s earnings were better than the headline growth suggests

I own Duolingo, so this is one I was paying pretty close attention to.

The biggest thing that stood out to me was that user growth actually accelerated again, while bookings growth continues to be the main concern.

Revenue: $298.5M, +18%
Bookings: $289.1M, +8%
Subscription bookings: $250.3M, +10%
DAUs: 58.7M, +23%
MAUs: 140.6M, +10%
Paid subscribers: 12.7M, +17%
Gross margin: 72.6%
Adjusted EBITDA: $77.3M
Adjusted EBITDA margin: 25.9%

The DAU number is probably what I liked most.

DAU growth accelerated from 21% last quarter to 23% this quarter, and management expects it to stay above 20% for the rest of the year. Retention also reached an all-time high.

The obvious concern is bookings.

Revenue grew 18%, but bookings only grew 8%. That’s a pretty big gap and something I’ll be watching closely. Q3 guidance also calls for only about 9% bookings growth.

Margins are down too, but I’m less worried about that.
Duolingo has been pretty clear that they’re intentionally prioritizing user growth, retention and product investment over maximizing near-term monetization.

For me, the question is pretty simple:

If DAUs keep growing 20%+ and paid subscribers keep growing double digits, can Duolingo eventually get bookings growth accelerating again?

As a shareholder, I’m happy to see them prioritize growing the platform right now. But at some point, that user growth needs to translate into faster bookings growth.

I don’t usually post about companies when things are going this badly, but Trade Desk is a tough one right now.

- Revenue: $715M, up just 3%
- Q2 2025 growth: 19%
- Q2 2024 growth: 26%
- Management had guided for at least $750M
- Q3 guidance: at least $650M

TTD was a company that consistently grew 20%+ for years. Now revenue growth has gone from 26% to 19% to 3%.

The ad market can be cyclical, but other digital ad companies are still putting up solid growth. That makes it harder to blame all of this on the market.

The Q3 guide is probably the worst part. One bad quarter happens. Guiding for an even weaker quarter is a lot tougher.

Brutal quarter

SoFi just reported another really strong quarter, and the growth is becoming pretty hard to ignore.

• Revenue: $1.22B, +43% YoY
• Adjusted EBITDA: $358M, +44%
• Net income: $157M, +61%
• Members: 15.8M, +35%
• Products: 24.4M, +42%
• Loan originations: $14.8B, +69%
• Deposits: $45.5B
• Fee-based revenue: $472M, now 39% of total revenue

The part that stands out to me is the cross-selling.

51% of new products were opened by existing members, up from 35% a year ago. SoFi isn't just acquiring customers... existing customers are increasingly using more of the platform.

And the revenue mix has completely changed.

Financial Services generated $466M this quarter, compared with almost nothing a few years ago, while Lending still grew to $725M.

The weak spot continues to be Technology Platform, which fell 23% YoY to $85M.

But overall, you're looking at a company growing revenue ~40%, members 35%, products 42%, and still expanding profits at the same time.

The chart really shows how different SoFi looks today versus just a few years ago.

Is SoFi starting to prove the financial super-app thesis, or is the valuation already pricing this in?

To add on to my post from a couple days ago about Uber’s underlying growth being much stronger than the 12% revenue headline, I went through the earnings call and a few other things stood out:

• Mobility bookings grew 20%, with operating income up 28%
• Delivery bookings grew 25%, with operating income up 38%
• Grocery/Retail is now at a ~$15B annualized bookings run rate and growing ~40%
• Advertising passed a $2.5B annualized run rate and is still growing ~50%
• TTM free cash flow crossed $10B

But management probably spent the most time emphasizing AVs.

Uber is already live with AVs in 7 cities, expects up to 15 by year-end, and partners have committed ~120k vehicles.

Dara’s argument is basically that Uber doesn’t need to build the winning AV. They want to be the distribution layer for whoever does.

Interestingly, Uber also said its market share in SF, LA and Phoenix — some of the most developed AV markets — is actually higher than it was a year ago.

Still a lot of uncertainty around AVs, but management clearly thinks it can become an opportunity for Uber rather than a threat.

Everyone is talking about Uber's 12% revenue growth, but that number doesn't tell the full story.

- Reported revenue: +12% YoY
- UK accounting change reduced reported revenue growth by ~8 percentage points
- Underlying revenue growth was closer to 20%
- Gross Bookings: +24%
- Trips: +18%
- Monthly Active Platform Consumers: +16%
- Adjusted EBITDA: +33%

The business didn't suddenly slow down. The biggest change was how certain UK trips are recognized as revenue, not customer demand.

The chart still shows TTM revenue reaching new highs, but even it understates the underlying growth because of the accounting change.

Curious what everyone thinks, is the market focusing too much on the headline 12% revenue growth?

Amazon’s Q2 was another reminder that the market still tends to think of it as an online retailer when it’s increasingly a collection of high-margin businesses.

Some highlights:

• Revenue: $200.6B, +20% YoY
• AWS: $42.2B, +37% YoY
• Advertising: $19.8B, +26% YoY
• Operating income: $27.5B, +43% YoY
• AWS operating income: $16.6B
• 2026 CapEx guidance: ~$220B

The most interesting part isn’t that retail is getting bigger—it’s that the highest-margin segments are growing the fastest.

AWS, Advertising, and Third-Party Seller Services continue to become a larger percentage of Amazon’s business every year, which should continue driving margin expansion over time.

The market often values Amazon as an e-commerce company with a cloud business attached.

Increasingly, it looks like an AI infrastructure and services company with one of the world’s largest retail businesses attached.

What do you think Amazon looks like in 5 years if AWS and Advertising keep compounding at these rates?

Everyone talks about AI. Not enough people appreciate what it’s doing to the cloud business.

Just look at the latest quarter:

• AWS: $42.2B revenue (+37% YoY) — its fastest growth in years. Backlog exploded to $496B, and Amazon raised 2026 capex to $220B because demand still exceeds supply.

• Microsoft Intelligent Cloud: Nearly $39B revenue, powered by Azure growing 39% as AI demand accelerated across enterprise workloads.

• Google Cloud: Roughly $25B revenue, growing over 80% YoY as Gemini and AI infrastructure continue driving enterprise adoption.

The market spent the last year questioning whether AI spending would ever produce meaningful returns.

These earnings answered that question.

The hyperscalers aren’t just selling more compute—they’re selling scarcity. Every management team is saying the same thing: demand is outpacing the infrastructure they can build.

AI is making the cloud dramatically more valuable.

The chart tells the story. The earnings confirmed it.

The quarter itself was outstanding:

Revenue: $805M (+61%)
Ad revenue: +64%
Net income: +183%
Free cash flow: +135%
Gross margin: 91%
DAUs: 130.3M (+18%)
Q3 guidance beat expectations

By almost every financial metric, Reddit continues to fire on all cylinders.

The concern? Search traffic.

Management said Google search referrals became “choppy” as AI Overviews changed how users discover content.

That showed up in U.S. user growth:

Q2’25: +16%
Q3’25: +14%
Q4’25: +10%
Q1’26: +7%
Q2’26: +6%

U.S. DAUs also dipped slightly from 53.5M to 53.2M sequentially. That’s meaningful because U.S. users monetize about 5x better than international users.

The bear case: AI search permanently reduces Reddit’s new-user funnel, causing U.S. growth to stall.

The bull case: Reddit’s moat isn’t Google—it’s its communities. Management is focused on converting one-time search visitors into daily, logged-in users while international growth (+28%) remains very strong.

My take: This was an A- quarter. The business continues to execute exceptionally well, and the entire debate comes down to one question:

Are search headwinds a temporary speed bump, or the start of a structural slowdown?

I’m leaning toward the former, but U.S. DAU growth will be the metric to watch over the next few quarters.

I think this is the biggest question raised by this graphic.

There are obviously a lot of circular relationships here. Nvidia invests in AI companies, those companies buy Nvidia GPUs, cloud providers invest in model companies, and those model companies then spend heavily on cloud infrastructure.

But that does not automatically mean the demand is fake.

A lot of Nvidia’s biggest customers are Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta. These are extremely profitable companies funding AI investment through their existing businesses. They are not relying on Nvidia’s money to keep buying chips.

OpenAI, Anthropic and some of the newer infrastructure companies are a little more complicated. They still rely heavily on outside investment, but they are also generating real revenue from subscriptions, API usage and enterprise customers.

To me, the real question is whether the ecosystem is moving from:

Investor money → more infrastructure

to:

Real customers → AI revenue → more infrastructure

Financing is clearly helping accelerate the buildout, but as long as businesses and consumers continue paying for these products, the circular nature of the deals is much less concerning.

That is really what I will be watching.

Graphic credit: Bloomberg

Beyond excited to share that the subreddit has reached 1,000 members and 10,000 weekly visitors in just one month.

I honestly cannot believe how quickly this community has grown. I am incredibly grateful for everyone who has joined, contributed, commented, shared an opinion, or simply stopped by to read the discussions.

I originally created this subreddit to build a community around my app, but it has grown into far more than that. It has become a great hub for long-term investors who think independently, look beyond the daily market noise, and stay focused on building long-term wealth.

A major part of what I want to build here is a place where people can understand companies, financial information, and long-term trends visually. I am a visual learner myself, and seeing the information clearly laid out is often what makes everything click for me.

Investing does not have to be overly complicated. My goal with both this community and the app is to make it easier to understand, while still encouraging thoughtful and informed discussion.

Thank you all so much for being here and helping shape this community. 1,000 members and 10,000 weekly visitors in one month is incredible, and I cannot wait to see where this goes next.