▲ 163 r/TheVisualInvestors
If we are in a bubble - Then the bubble is not in the price… it’s in the earnings?
u/Adept_Mountain9532 — 4 days ago
r/TheVisualInvestors
▲ 16 r/TheVisualInvestors
Call center jobs grew ~4% annually for 15 years! Now they’re shrinking 4% annually
u/value-growth-guy — 4 days ago
▲ 45 r/TheVisualInvestors
The S&P 500 fell 0.35% in September, but 77% of its stocks declined! What do you buy?
u/Adept_Mountain9532 — 6 days ago
▲ 165 r/TheVisualInvestors
The "AI Big 10" now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap.
This includes Magnificent 7 stocks as well as Broadcom, AMD and Micron,
This figure has more than doubled since the 2022 bear market low.
By comparison, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, the Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) sector peaked at 41%, while the Nifty Fifty peaked at 40% in the 1970s.
Furthermore, Japan’s equity market bubble in the 1980s peaked at 44%.
In the past, only railroad stocks have significantly exceeded this concentration, accounting for 63% of US market cap at their highest point in the 1900s.
The dominance of Big Tech is extraordinary.
u/Adept_Mountain9532 — 7 days ago
The AI companies' P/E ratio has collapsed. Are we really in a bubble?
If you look across different industries and verticals of AI, the valuation premium's come down quite a bit. Particularly, semi, power, and cloud (hyperscalers) all seem to have calmed down. If we're in a serious bubble, wouldn't AI demand a much higher valuation premium?
It seems that the valuation premium peaked in early 2023...I'm not sure. What do you guys think? Is this still a good time to invest in AI stocks?
u/TheseFact — 12 days ago
Micron's Q4 2026 Income Statement, visualized
u/pierreb5 — 14 days ago
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing needs 28.9% annual cash-flow growth in my model. Too much?
The market is asking a lot from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
At $456.19, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 28.9% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 24% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.
Two operating details behind the valuation:
- Q2 2026: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's latest-quarter revenue grew 36.0% year over year. For context, its multi-year revenue CAGR is 18.9%; that comparison spans a different time horizon.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's reported FCF margin is 25.3%, up from 23.0% in the oldest comparable period.
Even my bull case is only $291, below today's $456.19 price. That is a demanding hurdle. Either the company keeps outperforming for years, or the stock has little room for disappointment.
Model assumptions: 11.7% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.
What could break the case: Semiconductors are cyclical.
Is the market right to expect more, or is the stock priced for too much?
The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/DrCF1rhzNsM
Snapshot: 2026-10-01. I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.
u/TheExpectationGap — 14 days ago