r/VCX_Fundrise

For those of you who are wondering what I did, I am still holding all 18K shares of VCX

Is anyone else’s cost basis of VCX wrong?
I transferred my shares to Fidelity. The transfer settled 8/18.
Fidelity shows my average cost basis (I was investing biweekly) around $12.50 per share give or take 30 cents but that is not what I paid for my shares via Fundrise.
My total monetary investment into the Innovation Fund was $5970 for a total of 314.73 shares which equals about $18.97 per share.
Can anyone explain to me why this might be????

I think most people are valuing VCX and DXYZ by looking at today’s private-company valuations.

I think the better question is:
If AI becomes as economically important as many of us think it will, what could the companies inside these funds eventually earn?

Start with OpenAI and Anthropic.
People often think their market is simply:
“Sell AI subscriptions to consumers and enterprises.”

I think that massively understates the opportunity.

If AI becomes capable enough, it can attack several enormous markets at the same time:

Software
Consulting
Coding
Customer service
Legal work
Financial analysis
Education
Research
Recruiting
Advertising
Sales
Healthcare administration
Personal assistants
Business operations

But there is an even bigger opportunity.
Imagine an AI that knows what problem you are trying to solve and can actually solve it.

You need a better job.
You need to reduce your taxes.
You need an immigration lawyer.
You need to buy a house.
You need insurance.
You need investment research.
You want to start a company.
You need software built.

Instead of simply answering questions, the AI could eventually perform the work, build a customized solution, or connect you to the exact business that can solve the problem.
Consumers could pay the AI for solving the problem.

Businesses could pay the AI for bringing them extremely qualified customers.
Enterprises could pay the AI for replacing or augmenting expensive knowledge workers.
That means the real addressable market is not just the current AI software market.
It is potentially a slice of trillions of dollars of global labor, consulting, software, advertising, commerce and professional-services spending.

That is why a company like OpenAI eventually generating hundreds of billions of dollars of annual profit does not seem impossible to me if AGI or something close to it actually happens.

For example:
If OpenAI someday earns $300B/year in profit and receives a 25x earnings multiple:
$300B × 25 = $7.5 trillion valuation.
You don’t need some ridiculous 100x multiple.
You need enormous earnings.
Anthropic has a similar opportunity on the enterprise side.

Maybe Anthropic deserves a lower valuation than OpenAI because it does not currently have the same consumer distribution.
But if Anthropic becomes one of two or three dominant providers of frontier intelligence to enterprises, a multi-trillion-dollar outcome is still conceivable.

Now connect that back to VCX and DXYZ.
VCX owns major positions in companies including:
Anthropic
OpenAI
Databricks
SpaceX
Anduril
Ramp
OpenEvidence
Flock
and other private technology companies
DXYZ has particularly large exposure to:
Anthropic
SpaceX
OpenAI
plus other private technology companies
Now run a long-term bull-case thought experiment.
Assume eventually:
OpenAI = ~$7.5T
Anthropic = ~$5–7.5T
SpaceX = ~$3.5–4T
Databricks = ~$1T

And importantly, don’t assume every other company stays frozen at today’s value.
If AI, defense technology, robotics, autonomous systems and private software continue growing for another 5–10 years, companies like Anduril, Ramp, OpenEvidence and others can also become much larger.
Using the current portfolio composition as a rough sensitivity model, I can see a path where:

VCX NAV eventually exceeds $150/share.
For DXYZ, because it has larger concentration in SpaceX and Anthropic but also substantial cash, my rough long-term bull-case range is:
DXYZ NAV: ~$100–$135/share.
These are NAV estimates.
Not stock-price predictions.
The shares can trade at a premium or discount to NAV.

And obviously this thesis can fail.
If AGI does not happen, AI economics disappoint, competition destroys margins, regulation limits monetization, these companies lose their leadership, or the funds dilute shareholders/make poor investments, the outcome could be dramatically lower.
But the thesis itself is actually very simple:

If intelligence becomes an enormously valuable economic product, the companies controlling frontier intelligence could become some of the largest companies ever created.

VCX and DXYZ give ordinary investors access to several of those companies while they are still private.
So I am not asking:
“Can VCX NAV go from $20 to $30?”
I am asking:

“What does this portfolio become worth if OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Anduril and several others become defining companies of the next decade?”
My long-term bull case:

VCX: $150+ NAV
DXYZ: $100–$135 NAV
Not a guarantee. Not financial advice.
Just the math behind the long-term thesis.

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For those of you who owned the Innovation Fund before it became publicly traded VCX, I’m curious how you’re thinking about the long-term distribution/capital-gains side of the investment, rather than just the current share price.

My original reason for investing was long-term exposure to this fun. Now that shares are unlocked, I’m trying to understand the opportunity cost of selling versus continuing to hold as portfolio companies have liquidity events (outside of any major moonshots of the stock).

A few things I’m particularly curious about:
What do you realistically expect in distributions from VCX this year / next year?

As SpaceX, Fin and eventually Anthropic, Databricks, Anduril, OpenAI, etc. become liquid, how do you expect Fundrise to handle realized gains under the RIC structure?

Has Fundrise/Ben Miller ever said anything specific about how much they intend to distribute vs. reinvest after exits?

Do you expect distributions to become meaningful over 5–10 years, or do you think that thesis is being overstated?

For OG holders, are you planning to hold a core position for distributions/NAV growth and only sell if VCX trades at a large premium, or are you looking to exit now that the lockup is overl?

Especially interested in anyone who has dug through the filings or understands the RIC tax/distribution mechanics. Not looking for price predictions as much as how everyone is thinking about the total-return economics of holding VCX long term.

Has anyone made Robinhood transfer work? When I initiate it from Robinhood it fails and Robinhood support says they can’t help because Computershare doesn’t use ACATS system.

(transferring from computershare)

after a few days? initially I believe it shows incomplete

I bet all the naysayers/shorters are somewhat dumbfounded by now. I understand we have a long way to go, but lil ole VCX is holding on pretty strong for now. When do most of those shorts expire? Anybody?

The funny thing about this is for investments like this I never watch the news and let the investment ride but for some reason I have been so glued to Reddit hype and news and back and forth that seeing it stay at $41 despite all the “selling” off shows that this funds holds a lot more weight to retail traders than we expected.

I hope it hits $100 🚀🚀🚀

Im not some savant when it comes to trading and don’t know VCX like a lot of you, but I bought in years ago.

Still sucks to see how some people made out like bandits right when it went public but the rest of us had to wait for the lockup period.

$41 is great. But imagine if we could squeeze the short sellers and the institutional folk who don’t believe in this sucker.

Any ideas?

Anyone else glued to watching VCX today? I've spent a lot of time watching stocks and the market, but never have I been in a position like this ipo/lock up on such a unique fund. So torn on where to set benchmark sale orders with how volatile this thing is. I know everyone is so concerned with NAV and fair value seems to be around $31-32, but does that really mean anything when a stock trades like this?

Hi,

Has anyone found out what happened to our fractional shares when Computershare converted our VCX shares to unlocked on 8/14/2026? I assume they are selling them like they did with the pre-listing VCX fractional shares back in April but I do not see any confirmation of this in my Computershare account.

Thanks!

Ben

Please vote, poll is in two parts due to limit on options. Feel free to leave comments with more details, questions. Part 2
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1vr773j/whats_your_broker_and_have_the_shares_settled/

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I just got an offer from Schwab to borrow my VCX shares at 9.5% interest.

I'm aware of the implications of participating, but has anyone else received an offer?

Thanks.

Pretty much the title. Sitting on a couple hundred % gain. Constantly torn on what to do.

I took my basis back at $34.50 (a little less than a third of my position).

Everything else is cake. Will probably sell more slowly north of here if it happens

EDIT: What have others been doing?

Remaining options. Feel free to leave comments with more details, questions. Part 1:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1vr75zi/whats_your_broker_and_have_the_shares_settled/

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