r/VCX_Fundrise

Continuing from here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1ulq16l/anyone_buying_dxyz_here/

I spent some more time understanding how much ATM they could have done. I went through all the filings for the past year.

Let's look at what we know:
ATM shelf registration was activated on August 8, 2025.

Aug 8, 2025 - Sep 30, 2025 shares issued 2.9mm, volume traded 18.1mm -> 16% volume is ATM (surprisingly high but numbers are numbers)
Oct 1, 2025 - Dec 31, 2025 shares issued 8.2mm volume traded 75mm -> 11% volume is ATM

Total issued till this point $324 million.

Jan 1, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026 shares issued 8.4mm volume traded 90 million -> 9.3% of volume is ATM, amount raised $241 million

This is the last snapshot and therefore shelf left at this point is $435 mm

They renewed the shelf offering for another billion on May 11, 2026 which means either they ran out of the original 1B or were getting close and did this proactively.

If we look at the volume from Apr 1, 2026 -> May 11, 2026 it is 60.6 million, the average price (very rough estimate and not a VWAP based estimate) is $31. Issuing the whole 435 would have required 14 million shares which would have been about 23.1% of the volume which seems a little high so I think they did it proactively. Let's stick to 10% and therefore 6 million shares which would have raised 186 million.

The stock dropped on June 12th to below 30 so the ATM would have stopped. The volume between May 11, and June 11 is 164 million and the average price is $52! so again going by just the 10% estimate we get 16.4 million shares and a raise of 852 million!

So if we total the shares outstanding we get

30.4 million (last reported) + 6 + 16.4 = 52.8 million

Last reported asset value is 742 million on Mar 31, 2026. Anthropic 18.1% and SpaceX 14.5 %, so let's update those marks

Asset value lift from Anthropic = (945/380-1)*0.181*742 = 200 million
Asset value lift from SpaceX (Yesterday's Market Cap)= (2.13/1.25-1)*0.145*742 = 75 million

New total asset value after ATM and updated marks is
742 + 200 + 75 + 186 + 852 = 2.05B
Dividing it by the estimated shares outstanding we get 2055/52.8 = $38.92

They could have gone more aggressive with the ATM and this could just be a little above $40. We don't know if any other marks would have been updated in the meanwhile.

I won't say any more, stock is at $24, Do what you wish...

$23.78 as of this post. Trading well below what the updated NAV should be in August.

Red flag that it's dropping so much or a great buy here? I'm tempted to buy more for the NAV rerating in August + Anthropic IPO in the fall.

fundrise innovation fund proxy statement from feb '26 containing the below screenshot & proposed pro forma:

cdn.sanity.io/files/iva.pdf

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I'm thinking of putting $1k into this to see if it can pump again. What do you think?

u/fundrise_investing ceo u/benmillerise, inquiring minds want to know

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With a new fund on the horizon, what interest does Fundrise have in VCX long term? Anyone concerned about the future efforts into this fund?

I have restricted shares and I do plan on pulling something off the table when they are released. With OpenAI pulling back on their IPO, and now it looks like Anthropic could be late oct Nov, I think this pause will to keep the interest up but would like to hear others thoughts.

Vcx will go to 500 again once the stock goes public this is all preipo nav 188 will triple on ipo retail is finally getting in as the big guy whales just hold profit takers from 50 understandable could hit 750

$1m net return in ~36mths from my taxable fundrise accnt & 10.9k restricted VCX shares (excludes 401 unrestricted shares remaining) 🔸 i created this graphic 🔸 since VCX returns aren't displayed in our fundrise accnts, i have to do the math for cumulative return % q1 '26 🔸 i think it's *ballpark* correct 🔸 i'm a numbers guy who's also bad at math, fml

$227k net return in ~36 months from my taxable fundrise accnt 🔸 i created this graphic

taxable accnt all-time performance from 04 mar '22 to 16 apr '26 🔸 total net return breakdown 🔸 portfolio breakdown by $ -- except for flagship fund, growth vii, & balanced ii, all ereits & efunds are expected to merge soon. \"this action is intended to enhance long-term returns for existing shareholders through greater diversification, minimized operating costs, & increased economies of scale\"

portfolio breakdown by %

q1 '26 div paid: $10.8k

opportunistic credit fund 1 (private credit) performance

opportunistic credit fund 1 (private credit) div. earned by qtr

real estate growth performance 🔸 to all the fundrise haters & ain'ters, here's some financial non-advice: please don't buy the fundrise flagship fund right now 🔸 we both need someone to root against

real estate growth net return by qtr

you're not bullish enough on owning equity in fundrise & ceo ben miller 🔸 bible

do you see?

wake up

https://fundrise.com/education/q1-2026-letter

https://fundrise.com/education/q1-2026-letter

https://fundrise.com/education/q1-2026-letter

https://fundrise.com/education/q1-2026-letter

https://fundrise.com/education/category/onward

i'm a terrible trader 🔸 i failed you, fundrise 🔸 310 sold & 401 unrestricted shares remaining 🔸 i view this as a $350k mistake bc if i were perfect, then i could have sold 711 shares at $575 = $408k, fml

i've earned $2.7k of fundrise flagship fund invitation reward vouchers, which cost me ~$6k of reimbursements of people's initial $10 min investment & $Ks of fundrise innovation fund share reimbursements to my girlfriend, as wedding presents, to celebrate a birth, to my doctors, friends, family, & future friends 🔸 fundrise doesn't & never paid me

this beautiful man spoke for 2hrs may '25 about why he's so fanatical about investing on & in fundrise.com 🔸 https://youtu.be/2fdYrypvD7w

🔸 u/fundrise_investing & ceo u/benmillerise obliterated my 5yr goal in 3.25yrs to have $1m on fundrise by jan '28

- thanks a lot, ben. now wtf am i supposed to do??

🔸 my linkedin: vincenzo ciaravino (fundrise fan)

🔸 i posted my fundrise portfolio qtrly since mar '23 to show fundrise is prudent diversification with volatile public equities, to share insights from my allocations, & to reduce friction btw my *friends* (you) & their new fundrise.com accounts

🔸 my invitation (fundrise.com/r?i=7g3h2c) is the best. joining fundrise takes less than 5 min & i reimburse your $10 min investment. fundrise provides you $100 of shares in the $1.1b real estate growth flagship fund. i make this offer bc ceo ben miller & team created a groundbreaking financial technology company — i ensure the people i care about know about fundrise

🔸 over 100 people accepted my $110 invitation at no cost to them. i gave $1k of fundrise innovation fund shares as a wedding present, to jumpstart my girlfriend's fundrise investing journey, to celebrated a friend's birth of his daughter; & to thank my surgeon, oncologist, & psychologist; & $100 of shares many times as birthday presents, as r/FundriseInvestors giveaways, & to show love to friends & family

🔸 a linkedin post explaining my fundrise invitation

🔸 why fundrise?

🔸 how fundrise works

🔸 venture capital, the innovation fund (ticker: VCX) is a public venture fund that gives you access to top private tech companies, from ai to space exploration, in a single investment

🔸 real estate is an expansive portfolio, calibrated for consistent growth

🔸 private credit is an opportunistic strategy for income-focused investors

🔸 internet public offering (iPO: fundrise.com/offerings/fundrise-ipo/view), the arc of financial history bends towards democracy

🔸 q1 '26 investor update (a historic quarter)

🔸 fundrise.com is the first & best direct-to-consumer private markets manager delivering world-class private market investment conveniently & securely in high quality real estate (equity), private credit (income), & venture capital (🚀)

q4 '25 fundrise post - $756,400

q3 '25 fundrise post - $716,901

q2 '25 fundrise post - $657,812

q1 '25 fundrise post - $620,759

q4 '24 fundrise post - $600,134

q3 '24 fundrise post - $584,945

q2 '24 fundrise post - $558,031

q1 '24 fundrise post - $547,555

q4 '23 fundrise post - $493,207

q3 '23 fundrise post - $469,898 - my fundrise "manifesto"

q2 '23 fundrise post - $408,548

q1 '23 fundrise post - $391,084

u/fundrise_investing ceo u/benmillerise

Previewing GPT-5.6 Sol: a next-generation model | OpenAI

What a race , between Openai and Anthropic at any moment we could have break thru that makes or destroy whole industries, I'm glad we have both in our fund and Open is likely pushing Ipo down the road

With the news that there will be a VCX II fund, it seems to my layman's eyes that the incentive will be to neglect the VCX fund and focus on increasing the VCX II fund, since the management fee will be larger for the VCX II fund. In the interest of preserving management's attention on the VCX fund, would you be for a re-vote of the increase in VCX fund runner's compensation? If not, what about if part of the condition was closing the VCX II fund or requiring an equal compensation percent across all Fundrise funds?