“Exclusive” update from the WSJ: The startup expects a 130% revenue surge to $10.9 billion in the June quarter and its first operating profit, defying skeptics of the AI boom.
So, yesterday, Computershare folks told me that they do not offer a Roth IRA. And that my shares are sitting in a regular IRA
I called Fundraise and they said that's not possible. And that they did not accidentally send my Roth IRA shares to an IRA.
Now I am waiting for Fundrise to double check with computershare and send me an email confirming they did not fuck up!
Does anyone else have their shares in a Roth IRA? Or am I the only one?
Hi everyone! newish investor here (few years in), so be gentle..
I'm one of the 100k original VCX holders (not many shares by any means) but wanted to share my thesis heading into September and hear your thoughts.
A few things about my position first:
Honestly thankful for the lockup - I would've sold at $500+ and I'm glad I didn't. The more I've researched, the more convicted I've become.
Ben Miller's mission genuinely resonates with me and I think this fund was built to solve a real problem for everyday investors and regardless of how it performs I’m thankful for the opportunity to be a part of it. (Hoping he’s speaking the truth bc I’ve been fooled before🤞)
Now the fun part - I see two scenarios:
Scenario 1: The "crash" doesn't happen (my lean)
Everyone's assuming a September tank. I think that assumption itself is the miscalculation.
Here's why:
- NAV is probably $40+ now given recent Anthropic/OpenAI revaluations. It seems many growth stocks trade at 4-5x their NAV (Correction: meant companies like Apple, Amazon, etc trade at premium to earnings*). Bears are using a stale number and anyone seeing this as a $19/NAV still is bizarre to me.
- Google, Amazon and Microsoft have billions personally invested in these portfolio companies succeeding. That's not nothing and with Blackrocks new multi billion dollar commitment to spaceX on top of the S&P 500 fast track I’m feeling pretty confident in the major 3 positions. Just those 3 alone would have me purchasing the fund but I’ve done research on the rest of the portfolio and my hats off to Ben and his team - there’s a solid reason the stock is performing the way it is right now and I trust they’ll continue to make strategic moves to increase their positions.
- The short thesis assumes mass selling but tax implications alone probably keep 40-50% of original holders from touching it. Nobody wants a massive short term capital gains bill on 1,000% + returns. I understand some people have been investing for years but many were probably like myself who invested in the real estate funds and then moved towards the innovation fund later down the line when it started gaining traction. If anyone has any true data regarding the original investors please share bc that would help me in narrowing down my strategy. 🙏
Also, the short positions will most likely panic and have to buy it back at a premium (in all honesty, I don’t completely understand how that all works but open to learning).
- Lastly, the demand. My dad has been beating himself up for not listening to me and wants in but is waiting for September or for it to hit $90-120 again bc he’s retired and can’t risk a large portion of his portfolio. Multiply that by thousands of investors sitting on the sidelines and you have a massive demand wall ready to absorb any selling pressure which leads me to my next point.
I think Fundrise does one of two things before September that make a bear argument harder to stand by: splits the stock (bringing it to $40-50 range which floods in retail demand and psychologically changes everything) or sells premium shares to fund new investments.
The split theory is actually my strongest conviction.
Ik it’s not normally what happens but Fundrise's entire mission is democratizing investing for average people- letting it sit at $200-300+ contradicts everything they stand for and like my dad, your everyday/ close to retirement investor is looking at this as risky. A split at $50 and I'm personally doubling down because I see it easily going in the hundreds again. At $300 I'm probably trimming because it would be hard for me to see every day people buying it at $1000 or more. Idk I know it’s the same but the Psychology is real 😂
Second theory: they may sell new shares so they can continue to reinvest and that automatically increases NAV. I foresee the fund selling at a premium because of the way private companies are evaluated and with the current giants in the fund that go public I think this stock will remain a premium for quite a while bc it’s a one stop for all three so that potentially works out when more capital is needed to deploy.
Scenario 2 - People panic and sell
Here’s why (the obvious):
- Some original investors freak out and dump. Honestly? I get it because unlike me who had about $2k originally, some people are sitting with millions and that’s life changing money. If they do sell I’ll be happily using that as a buying opportunity. 😉
- The original monetary amount invested in the portfolio was not an insane amount of money and people may question if the evaluations are already too high for some of the companies within the portfolio. Also, if investors are only in it for one company they may pull out to invest when that company goes ipo.
- there’s no personal control over what happens in the portfolio- if the fund managers sell SpaceX , Anthropic etc when they IPO to reinvest in other companies that may not do as well or if the managers start getting sloppy then we’re SOL.
Bottom line: I think September is being wildly misread by the bears. Between tax incentives keeping holders in, institutional buyers waiting for any dip, a potential split, and three near-trillion dollar IPOs on the horizon - the "great crash" narrative might age very poorly.
Happy to be wrong bc again I’m a new investor so please poke holes but I’m feeling ready to ride the wave ☺️👇
Has anyone looked into strategies like Exchange Funds or Separately Managed Accounts that harvest losses as means to manage cap gains and/or portfolio over-concentration in VCX?
I have ~3700 restricted shares, avg entry price is below $11. We are not wealthy people, want to use VCX windfall to help finance retiring a few years earlier than planned. Even if VCX drops to $100 or $50, its big cap gains (we both work so will push us into higher bracket) if we sell, or leave us over-concentrated if we hold. We generally invest in Vanguard index funds and roll t-bills for liquidity needs. This is the only single stock we own.
Initial read on options like exchange funds and SMAs is they are high fee, high minimum, and need an FA to access some products. Exchange fund is a 7-year lock up but that suits us fine for retirement.
I ran the FLEX query on theocc.com (Options clearing corporation) and came across this VCX trade for yesterday. If anyone understands these better please feel free to chime in.
THE OPTIONS CLEARING CORPORATION - CHICAGO, ILLINOIS SYSTEM DATE 05/15/26 TIME 20:48:13 PAGE 319
EQUITY FLEX OPEN INTEREST REPORT ACTIVITY DATE 05/15/26 PROGRAM ID BV2C0210 V005
MARK PRICES NOTED ON THIS REPORT ARE DERIVED BY THE CORPORATION FROM FACTORS
AND DATA DEEMED PERTINENT WHENEVER APPROPRIATE CLOSING PRICES IN FLEX
OPTIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.
EXPIRATION STRIKE MARK OPEN
SYMBOL P/C MO DAY YR PRICE PRICE INTEREST
FUNDRISE INNOVATION FUND, LLC
2VCX P 10 16 2026 00160 400 71.0042 116
2VCX C 10 16 2026 00183 000 73.6988 116
*** CLASS TOTALS *** 232
Context
See here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587226000288/dxyz100_424b3.htm
And here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587226000284/dxyz098_424b3.htm
They also hold about 15% of their portfolio in SpaceX so DXYZ could move dramatically the next 4 weeks with the IPO
Based on filing dates, they could have issued at $50-75 (ie at least double nav from March 31, 2026).
——
Waiting on VCX to get this going - we wont be trading at 10x nav for long… hoping we see a 424b3 this coming week so we can get started!
I hold some restricted shares and am considering some post-lockup put options as insurance in case the stock tanks. A 10/16 expiration with a strike of $100 goes for $2,900 right now. Assuming 100 shares, it seems the put cost would eat up your value the most in the $80-$140 range. I am inclined to say this is a good bet as it preserves upside if the stock tanks, and if it stays high, the put cost is minimal relative to the profit you make. Given the current NAV I don't think $50 is out of the question, especially if AI sentiment goes bearish later in the year. I am an options newb and would love some opinions on whether this math is mathing or not.
Another potential hype cycle for related tickers. Add to it the next Starship launch on May 19th. The news coverage should increase.
DXYZ, VCX and SATS (this could be the dark horse, I am long, DXYZ and VCX are tricky with current prices.)
We are now at (or will soon arrive at) the part in the game where we hope VCX will issue more shares. Big ups to u/BurnsVail and others who have been tracking the sales out of Flagship.
Why is this important? Because as of today VCX is trading at roughly a 10x premium to NAV, assuming a fresh NAV along the lines of $25 per share. When a closed-end fund sells new shares at a price above current NAV, each new share brings in cash that exceeds the per-share claim on existing assets, so total assets rise faster than share count -- making the issuance accretive to existing shareholders. In other words, existing shareholders can make a lot of money if the new shares are issued at a significant premium to NAV.
There are currently 28.3 million shares of VCX. If Fundrise decides to do a primary issuance for an additional 10%, that would be 2.83 million new shares. At the current share price of say $250, that would be an additional $708 million (!) in cash flowing into VCX. Once the 2.83 million shares were sold, the NAV would jump from $25 to $45. I guess we should factor in fees as well. I’ll put the Claude math in the comments.
So what’s the play for us if they issue new shares? I don’t think it changes much. If you were lucky/smart enough to acquire restricted shares, sit back and enjoy the ride. If the price dips significantly, consider picking up more. I’m sure those that are comfortable with options can work some serious magic here, but I certainly don’t advocate that for beginners. Totally open to all ideas on how to profit from Fundrise’s hard work.
Do whatcha might will with buying or selling VCX. But there are a bunch of morons now like BagsofBabbish, BriefHistorical and Prestigious-Land etc shit posting and scaring people. There are also older posts from last week that looked like pumps. I think most people are adult enough to realize but no need to engage with these losers.
There are multiple SEC approved listed funds with Anthropic shares.
Big congrats to everyone who correctly identified Flagship as a way to keep rolling with the VCX gains!
I'd love to see an explainer from Fundrise on the mechanics and calculations...perhaps once all the unrestricted VCX shares held by Flagship are sold.
for day trading and fun its great. but of all the wild etfs you could invest in, and I do think there are some cool ones, this one needs to be delisted!
Looks like they will be going early-stage so different play than VCX. Interesting to see nonetheless. Sharing for awareness.
Like many of you I have many restricted shares. With options open has anyone found a decent way to hedge? I have sold a few bear credit spreads but already hit max loss. Anything you're playing?
The financing values Anduril at $61 billion, double the $30.5 billion that it was valued at in June 2025.
I hope VCX was part of this round.
