u/Fit_Equal6932

DXYZ and RVI got listed options last month. VCX have had them for longer. These tickers have overlapping baskets of holdings. I have mentioned the spot side of things here with some significant traded price to NAV dislocations. We can also look at how the options IV side of things look. These funds have to report their updated asset valuation marks and NAV per share quarterly within 60 days. That date is August 29th for Q2 and is the closest equivalent of an earnings report for a company. So keep that date in mind to consider any event vol pricing in the term structure. The following table lists the IV at the close on Thursday. These tickers are worth looking at to structure some options plays. Everyone will probably have their own ideas around them. Have fun!

ATM IV	July 17	Aug 21	Oct 16	Jan 15	Notes
DXYZ	84	93	92	93	Potentially undervalued w.r.t. projected NAV, most liquid options of all, easy to short
VCX	111	105	125	133	Illiquid, wide options spreads, few shortable shares, high CTB, 85% float unlocks on Sep 15
RVI	97	94	99	98	Wide options spreads, high CTB

Ticker	Last Reported NAV	Estimated NAV	Last Close	Multiplier to Est. NAV	Fund Heavyweights	ATH	Notes
DXYZ	$24.56	$39 [1]	$24.00	0.62	Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX	$105	18.1% Anthropic. Updated NAV presented in the link. I have taken a long position recently.
VCX	$18.97	$25.00	$78.00	3.12	Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Anduril, SpaceX	$575	16.5% Anthropic. NAV updates due to Anthropic/Anduril. 85% float is locked up. Unlocks on Sept 15th; I hold restricted shares, I have a short position in the near term.
RVI	$24.05	$24.05	$34.00	1.42	OpenAI, Databricks, Ramp, Boom, Airwallex	$77	Robinhood marketing machine. I am on the fence about taking a small short position.
PWRL	$15.31	$15.31	$15.00	1.00	OpenAI, SpaceX	$40	Newer. Insiders have a staggered unlock every month. I have no positions

You can have whatever views you want on the AI trade, whether its a great buy or a bubble, these tickers are all over the place and allow you to express any view you like. Plenty of portfolio overlap allows for relative value plays. Please read the filings and do your own math for the NAV estimates. You don't need to be a CFA, you can just track the latest valuation rounds and do some arithmetic.

Continuing from here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1ulq16l/anyone_buying_dxyz_here/

I spent some more time understanding how much ATM they could have done. I went through all the filings for the past year.

Let's look at what we know:
ATM shelf registration was activated on August 8, 2025.

Aug 8, 2025 - Sep 30, 2025 shares issued 2.9mm, volume traded 18.1mm -> 16% volume is ATM (surprisingly high but numbers are numbers)
Oct 1, 2025 - Dec 31, 2025 shares issued 8.2mm volume traded 75mm -> 11% volume is ATM

Total issued till this point $324 million.

Jan 1, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026 shares issued 8.4mm volume traded 90 million -> 9.3% of volume is ATM, amount raised $241 million

This is the last snapshot and therefore shelf left at this point is $435 mm

They renewed the shelf offering for another billion on May 11, 2026 which means either they ran out of the original 1B or were getting close and did this proactively.

If we look at the volume from Apr 1, 2026 -> May 11, 2026 it is 60.6 million, the average price (very rough estimate and not a VWAP based estimate) is $31. Issuing the whole 435 would have required 14 million shares which would have been about 23.1% of the volume which seems a little high so I think they did it proactively. Let's stick to 10% and therefore 6 million shares which would have raised 186 million.

The stock dropped on June 12th to below 30 so the ATM would have stopped. The volume between May 11, and June 11 is 164 million and the average price is $52! so again going by just the 10% estimate we get 16.4 million shares and a raise of 852 million!

So if we total the shares outstanding we get

30.4 million (last reported) + 6 + 16.4 = 52.8 million

Last reported asset value is 742 million on Mar 31, 2026. Anthropic 18.1% and SpaceX 14.5 %, so let's update those marks

Asset value lift from Anthropic = (945/380-1)*0.181*742 = 200 million
Asset value lift from SpaceX (Yesterday's Market Cap)= (2.13/1.25-1)*0.145*742 = 75 million

New total asset value after ATM and updated marks is
742 + 200 + 75 + 186 + 852 = 2.05B
Dividing it by the estimated shares outstanding we get 2055/52.8 = $38.92

They could have gone more aggressive with the ATM and this could just be a little above $40. We don't know if any other marks would have been updated in the meanwhile.

I won't say any more, stock is at $24, Do what you wish...

I was in the reddit purgatory for the last week for commenting on the CryptoMarkets sub (time to short RDDT?) so I couldn't post what I thought the 8-K will look like. I am back now and let's analyze it (a little TLDR but any thorough analysis has to be, so bear with me, this was written on Monday evening when MSTR had rallied to $93).

1. MSTR issuance 12.7 million+ shares. (3.5+% dilution! I was expecting 4-5 million but this is unheard of levels). One thing to note here, the trading volume for the week was 160 million shares so Saylor was 7.5% of the trading volume for the whole week. The stock dropped 28% from 113 to 82. This is all you need to know about how a large size can have market impact. Them butters were lapping up these shares without realizing that this guy was actively selling to them depressing the price, he was basically screwing them over, talk about dumb retail money. Another key thing to note was that the mNAV went down to 0.99 but not any more. I think we can use this as a very clear indicator that their now unstated policy is to choose to sell if mNAV is above 1.
2. Sats per share diluted from 218k to 211k, a hefty 3.5% dilution.
3. No STRC (expected)
4. No BTC (I was expecting 100-200 but he prioritized maximizing USD reserve)

The key announcements were a minimum of 12 month USD reserve which currently sits at 17.7 months and will only be used for debt and pref dividends. Authorization of sale of up to 1.25 billion btc which at today's price will be about 21k btc. He is trying to signal to the market that his sells will be limited, more on this later.

Some sleight of hand. He tweeted:
STRC dividend rate has been increased by 50 bps to 12.00% (market was implying 16.4%, italicized text added by me and not part of the tweet), effective for record dates in July, 2026. We will continue to evaluate the rate monthly. Our corporate objective is for STRC to trade over time at $99-$100.

vs the actual filing states:
The Company will not necessarily increase the STRC dividend rate solely because STRC trades below its stated amount. STRC dividends remain subject to declaration by the Board or an authorized committee and are not guaranteed.

Different things being emphasized, he wants to get STRC to 100 without footing the extra bill.

Here is the ideal scenario where his scheme works. STRC is at 100 and he uses it to raise capital to pump the btc price. MSTR mNAV is very healthy and has a large premium (>> 1) and he uses it to issue MSTR to cover the dividend obligations for all the STRC he is accumulating (he obviously has no real source of revenue). He does not need to sell any BTC and the pump continues. The problems with this optimistic scenario are, he needs to soak up the natural supply of btc which is about 450 btc per day so he needs to buy at least 3150 btc per week (next halving is April 2028). This will be 180 million of STRC per week (9.3B a year, compare this to the CBRS IPO of $5.5B) at the current prices and if the pump succeeds he has to keep buying at the top and the bill gets bigger. He needs to do this for the next 15 years until all the btc is mined. If you are smart you can infer what the probability of success is. One potential setup they are hoping for is the passage of Clarity Act. Clarity Act doesn't actually do much for btc but the crucial piece is that it does talk about stable coins. If you listen to the clowns like Jeff Walton and Adam Livingston they are pushing this narrative of STRC holding a par of 100 and then building yield bearing digital cash (stable coins) on top of it. This digital cash is then heavily utilized in the AI economy of agentic transactions and there is a huge demand, viola! Infinite TAM for STRC and perpetual pump for btc and MSTR. It won't be simple since the legislation technically won't allow for something like this as it is written and would require creative interpretation. Their goal will be to use the PR to get STRC back to par in the short term and get the fly wheel I mentioned above going while they try to engineer this. Now for all the complaints in crypto world about having a fiat that is inflationary, what do you think a digital currency with a yield of 12% would do to inflation? What would the minimum inflation rate be in such an economy? If you are smart I don't need to tell you.

Now let's get back to addressing the more pressing situation they are dealing with. When BTC is mined all the new issuance can be tracked to an address. Those belong to mining pools. Block chain is a permanent record of all transactions and if you can tie an entity to an address they are forever known and can't escape from it. Firms like ARKHAM do sophisticated blockchain analysis and have identified 96% of Strategy's custodian wallets and many other entities. Needless to say there are private players with their own proprietary stuff that can do even better. When the sale of the 32 BTC happened, Phong and Saylor said that, "they wanted to test their processes.". I thought it was BS but then I realized they were not lying. They wanted to see if the market intelligence is good enough to front run them. They announced the sale of the 32 BTC via their 8K filed on June 1, 2026. The disclosure states:
During Period May 26, 2026 to May 31, 2026*
BTC Sold 32
Aggregate Sale Price (in millions) $2.5
Average Sale Price $77,135

The only time btc traded at or above 77k for that week was May 26th, so that's when they sold. The price tanked by 4k on the 27th before they even disclosed the sale, market intelligence is sharp and they sussed this out! In fact it was very well documented on the Polymarket contract about whether MSTR sells BTC before 31st May, the odds on the market jumped the evening of the 26th when the wallets moved the coins. Polymarket is a very good source for MSTR related speculation, there is some smart money out there (which also believes that STRC doesn't go back to 100, check the current odds). Once the disclosure came out the rest of the market followed and over the next week the price collapsed further from 73k to 60k. So this whole announcing 1.25 Billion BTC sale is a signal to the market that this is the maximum they will sell. I have mentioned previously in my posts that 21k btc will still be about 15% of the binance weekly volume and if 7.5% MSTR sales crashed the stock price by 28% imagine what this will do to BTC. So for now without STRC at a 100 and mNAV close to 1.0 how do they handle the USD reserve without selling btc and crashing the price? One month of coverage will drop off the reserve next week because they pay the dividend on the 30th June. mNAV did bounce to 1.07 today but it won't take much selling to get it back to 1.00, so how do they signal a sustainable path to the market? The one possibility I have come across is BSTR. This is another btc DAT that has been approved for listing on the stock exchange. It is run by Saylor's friend and this douche called Adam Back. Look up his X profile. He is a blockchain developer who wants to get rich quick now. Their mandate is the same as MSTR, acquire more BTC. They have 2.5B in cash sitting around. They can easily negotiate a price near the current market price of BTC for that 1.25B sale with Saylor and both parties win! This is the most likely play here, they will announce this (relatively soon) before making the actual transfer (since any wallet movements will trigger the market front running). Saylor would be able to claim that he can liquidate his BTC without crashing the market and therefore vouch for STRC to go back to par and start his flywheel.

The question is whether the market will see through this and the fact that the "strategy" is unsustainable and needs a lot of capital for the next 15 years. If I were a hedge fund with deep pockets I will do an mNAV arb whenever it is above 1. This will turn off the Saylor MSTR sales, STRC stays below 100 and he will be back to square one having to sell more and more BTC and the spiral continues. Smart money knows it, the question is will this realize in the market or not?

I have seen them Butters present all kinds of cock and bull analysis on their subs but not one has mentioned the whole issue around wallet address tracking and how the sale of the 32 played out and what it means. Dumb money again. And now they are lapping up MSTR today thinking it is all good with the new filing (notice that ASST did not rise by the same amount, so this is pure MSTR froth). I will stay away until they engineer a sale and the market lets the mNAV go way above 1 for some time. You could value STRC using SATA as an arb. SATA implied yield as of today's close is 14.2% and for STRC to have the same yield you get a fair of 84.5 which is close to today's price. The market is still treating STRC like a solvent pref. But if the mNAV never rises much above 1 this assumption breaks since there is no way to pay the dividends perpetually. Then it becomes a distressed recovery play which would require a yield of 30-40% sending STRC price to 30-40 range. I will stay away from STRC until there is more clarity and mNAV is healthy above 1 for an extended amount of time. Further what the bag holders don't realize is how heavy their bags are. They think btc back to 125k means MSTR back to 500. But mNAV will never rise so much, optimistically assuming a 1.25 mNAV means btc 125k -> MSTR "$280" and btc 200k -> MSTR "$500". That's a long road!

As you can see, nothing has meaningfully changed with today's filing. It is mostly signaling and stupid retail cult piling back in. They can get burned. The overall odds of the strategy working out are still low albeit not zero but we now understand how it may work. Keep watching Polymarket in the meantime, smart money tells you where things are at. I think this provides anyone with a framework to analyze things and I probably won't be posting any weekly updates unless something unique and unexpected happens.

P.S. It's Tuesday now and they did get burned, MSTR back to the 80s! This ain't rocket science.

https://preview.redd.it/8nvwdmb1u48h1.jpg?width=2008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3484eb93caae14844255cecb256b2d7e445c5434

I am actually being serious, it has been punctuated with scams or stupid ideas and we have the perfect setup again.

Here are some observations on the day so far.

1. Smart money went short hard on SATA (92% utilization) because it was at 100. It fell hard. STRC is going down on its own, both these facts tell you the market has lost faith. There is a 50k share bid currently at 85.52 for STRC, let's see what happens when that is blown through.
2. SATA and ASST are a mirage too, people who think they are safer are on drugs. As goes STRC/MSTR so goes ASST/SATA.
3. STRC is permanently broken now, anyone who put their money in right now is going, "Pray to the lord, I am getting out the moment it gets back to 100". That cohort is permanently traumatized, where are they (MSTR) going to get the next one? I don't think so.
4. With STRC out MSTR is permanently dilutive and goes down sooner or later. (and dilutive by their metric because they don't count preferred as debt, its bad anyway, you either add leverage or dilute) So far MSTR is still trading with some beta to btc, the moment it stops is your signal that market has lost faith and it will spiral.
5. People who are debating whether bitcoin bottom is in or not don't realize any of this. You can only say something after MSTR is liquidated. We don't know how bad it will be and how they will deal with their holdings. So no point arguing about that for now. Stay out if you are smart.