Gold Market Brief — Fri 09 Oct 2026
Gold $4,199 (+1.8% 1d) · daily reference price (currency-api, CC0), snapshot 2026-10-09 · morning check 09:01 ET: tokenized gold PAXG $4,173 (Powered by CoinGecko), -0.6% vs the snapshot
Prices
Daily reference price (currency-api snapshot 2026-10-09), USD unless stated.
| Asset | Last | 1d | 1w | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU (gold, USD/oz) | $4,198.91 | +1.8% | +0.3% | -3.4% |
| XAG (silver) | $60.54 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| XPT (platinum) | $1,684.48 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| XPD (palladium) | $1,159.97 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Gold/Silver ratio | 69.4 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| XAU in CAD | C$5,967 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| XAU in EUR | €3,736 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BTC | $82,937 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Macro
| Series | Value | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10y nominal yield (DGS10) | 5.28% | 2026-10-07 | +1 bp |
| 10y real yield (DFII10) | 2.92% | 2026-10-07 | +1 bp |
| 10y breakeven (derived: nominal − real) | 2.36% | 2026-10-07 | derived |
| Broad USD (DTWEXBGS) | 121.38 | 2026-10-02 | -0.40 |
| Fed funds (DFF) | 3.88% | 2026-10-07 | +0 bp |
Drivers
- Gold recovery stalls near $4,200 as US Dollar, Treasury yields stabilise (FXStreet) — link
- Gold and Silver Forecast: Softer Dollar Fuels Rebound Despite Fed Hike Risks (FXEmpire) — link
- Gold rises more than 1.5% as US dollar and Treasury yields ease (Economies.com) — link
Positioning & flows
- GLD holdings: down on the day as of 2026-10-08 — figures at SPDR historical data (tonnage not reproduced; SPDR redistribution terms)
- COT (CFTC legacy, futures only): net non-commercial long 218,632 contracts (-7,221 w/w), open interest 406,456, as of 2026-09-29
Prediction markets
Market-implied odds for where gold closes, from exchange-traded yes/no contracts. Thin volume: a small-money signal, not a forecast.
| Contract | Implied median | 75% chance above | 25% chance above | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This week's close (Fri 09 Oct) | $4,178 | $4,160 | $4,198 | 36,995 |
| Month-end close (Fri 30 Oct) | $4,182 | $4,056 | $4,304 | 11,706 |
- This week's close: above $4,162: 73%; above $4,182: 44%; above $4,202: 20%
- Month-end close: above $4,073: 72%; above $4,193: 48%; above $4,273: 31%
Today's focus: Positioning & flows
- COT: net non-commercial long 218,632 contracts, -7,221 w/w, as of 2026-09-29.
- GLD holdings: down on the day (SPDR, linked above).
- The next CFTC COT report is released today at 15:30 ET (positions as of Tuesday); this brief's COT line updates on Monday.
Calendar
- Wed 14 Oct — US CPI (Sep), 08:30 ET
- Fri 16 Oct — CFTC COT release, 15:30 ET
- Wed 28 Oct — FOMC decision and press conference, 14:00 ET (meeting Oct 27-28)
Chart
Chart omitted today.
Desk note
Compiled data for the session: Gold reference price $4,198.91 (1d +1.8%, 1w +0.3%, YTD -3.4%); silver $60.54; gold/silver ratio 69.4; 10y nominal 5.28% (+1 bp); 10y real yield 2.92% (+1 bp); broad dollar 121.38 (-0.40); fed funds 3.88%; GLD down on the day as of 2026-10-08 — figures at SPDR historical data (tonnage not reproduced; SPDR redistribution terms); COT net non-commercial long 218,632 contracts (-7,221 w/w), open interest 406,456, as of 2026-09-29; next event: US CPI (Sep), 08:30 ET on 2026-10-14. Figures are as published by the sources listed below; no view is expressed on direction.
Question for the desk
GLD holdings changed -5.70 t on the day to 1,055.41 t. Are ETF flows leading or lagging the spot move?
Sources & disclaimer
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium and FX: currency-api (CC0, daily snapshot; provenance not disclosed by its maintainer). Cross-checked privately against a second feed. BTC and PAXG: Powered by CoinGecko. Macro: US Treasury (DGS10, DFII10) and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10, H.15) via FRED (accessed via FRED). Positioning: CFTC. ETF: SPDR Gold Shares (linked). Prediction-market odds: a CFTC-regulated US prediction exchange, used with permission. Not investment advice.
Data compiled automatically; the desk note is a deterministic data summary (no model-written text) and the question follows the brief's published rules.