r/bonds

CUSIP 09182TEW3
This municipal bond yields significantly more than comparable 10 years munis. Why?

61 year old male, approaching retirement in 3.5 years. Looking to reduce risks associated with holding a mix of intermediate bond ETF including BIV, IUSB and a couple of others.

Advisor has recommended I start by purchasing a 3 year treasury bond ladder. I know treasury ladders cannot be beat for eliminating loss of principle through NAV changes due to interest rate sensitivity. That said, I am wondering if a mix of higher quality short and intermediate term ETFs might be "better enough" with some advantages...

Considering:

20% SGOV
40% VGSH
25% VGIT
15% SCHP

Nav risk would be lower than current intermediate fund holdings like BIV or IUSB. Yields decent. Simpler than maintaining a ladder (no annual updates). Liquid. Very low expenses.

Thoughts?

30 year Treasury’s were over ~6% until 2000. That means all of the 30 year Treasury’s issued in the 90’s that are currently being rolled over are actually being refinanced for *cheaper* than the government had it.

We’re getting close to 5.5% - and yes I understand the debt has gotten nominally larger - but for all of the people screaming that the dollar is going to collapse because the 20Y and 30Y has surpassed 5%, I think you need a dose of reality that long term Treasury’s yielded close to 16% in the 80’s and remained close to 10% through much of the 90’s.

US debt to GDP is approaching 130%, not good, but developed sovereign nations have seen their debts reach upwards of 300% before real budget crises hit. A lot of nations that we seem to compare ourselves to often, like Japan and China, have debt to GDP of over 200%.

So, for now, we are fine.

What's the breaking point for the stock market if the 10yr reaches 5%? If you can get a guaranteed 5% return for 10yrs straight then at what point is liquidity pulled from stocks and parked in the 10yr and money taken out of banks and parked in the 10yr? Would 6% do it? 7%? 8%?

I just watched this video, and it got me thinking about what will come next. To me, it seems obvious that bond yields will continue to soar, but I didn’t hear enough explanation about it and wanted to hear your opinion on the rising bond yields, where they come from, and whether this trend will continue.

I guess we are in a government bond bear market. The last one was from 1941 until 1981.

If TIPS were invented, they would have worked in this period.

If there wasn’t an oil shortage that everyone needs dollars for, gold would work.

Commodities will work unless we hit a disinflationary recession.

Warsh wants to cut rates while reducing the balance sheet to manage the inflationary aspects of having cheap money. This is great for businesses. It is not as great for home loans as those are set off the long end of the curve.

If no one wants to buy what’s on the Fed’s balance sheet, we will have to oblige institutions to buy them. If we start yield curve control again, those institutions are going to take a bath on those bonds.

If the economy does keep growing, we will inflate away the national debt. This is what we did after WWII.

My father is already well into retirement and he’s always been an aggressive investor. I think even at his age he’s only 5-10% in bonds, if that. I’ve been trying to get him to sell some equities and reallocate (sell high, right?) to bonds.

Is this a good time to do it? Yields being high, etc. Bonds and the myriad ways to buy them confuse me, but it seems like he should have at least 25% in , but in what?

I dont understand the 10 rate, even now I think its too low. I have said this over a year, that inflation is persistent at 2% and the 10 should be over 5.

the fed rate is 3.75, inflation has been 2% over 5 years. simply put, I think one should add those 2 numbers and get 5.75 to get a positive return. the 10 should be at 5.5 to 5.75%. I realize that is not what happens.

Even Bill gross says at 2% inflation, the 10 should be 1.4 to 1.75% over the fed rate. which would be minimum 5.15%. it has not been over 5.

I do understand that buyers expect the fed rate to drop. but that ignores we are at a semi permanent 2% inflation. We are not going back to low or no inflation. Even after the Iran war, it will be 2+ for years.

Does anyone expect inflation to go below 2% within 5 years? This seems like self delusion for green=gambling

Sometimes I click on r/bonds just to read intelligent, helpful, truth-based and good-natured communication from other people. I’m rarely concerned about the unpredictability of rates, or what the second- and third-order of effects on the US federal debt load might be. But I really enjoy that the comments section is overwhelming factual and genuinely helpful. Keep being awesome, you bunch of boring, risk-adverse, reality-based, socially well adjusted people.

Not saying the 10 year will hit 5%, but it is sure trending them at way

The common notion for US bond guarantee is that in case US reaches a point where it cannot pay debt, it will inflate away the currency (USD) and pay its debt.

Similarly, why can't other countries do the same. Example, UK central bank can also print more money and pay off its GBP bonds if it reaches unsustainable levels and then stabilize later on.

The difference between the two seem that the impact of US printing money will be felt world wide, while in UK, the impact will be limited to its local economy. What gives here?

In fact US printing money seems worse as it is inflating prices and devaluing things globally. Other countries , if they print money to pay off debt, it might result in temporary local inflation but will eventually cool down right.

Hello,

I am looking for some perspective on my long-term U.S. Treasury bond holdings.

I bought long-term Treasuries (20–30 year) in 2025 as part of my fixed income allocation. About a year ago, believing rates would eventually come down, I shifted short-term Treasuries and CDs into long-duration Treasuries. My thinking was that they would both benefit from falling rates and still serve as safe, liquid assets if I ever needed to sell.

However, with rates staying higher (and/or rising further), these positions have taken a significant hit and are still well below my purchase price. It has been tough watching the value drop day after day.

I understand the inverse relationship between rates and bond prices, but I am struggling with what to do going forward:

• If I hold, is it reasonable to expect long-term Treasuries to eventually recover (either through falling rates or simply over time)?
• Or could “recovery” realistically take many years, making it more practical to reallocate now?
• How are others here thinking about duration risk currently — are you sticking with long-duration bonds, moving shorter, or just staying the course?
• How do you stay disciplined with your bond allocation when drawdowns are this large?

For context, this is long-term (retirement) money, and equities still make up the majority of my portfolio. I don’t need to sell, but the behavioral side of seeing these losses persist has been challenging.

I would really appreciate any insights, especially from those who’ve held long-duration bonds through prior rate cycles.

Thanks!

Is anyone selling their bond etfs? I keep hearing yield this and yield that. I left my EJ advisor in December of last year and took over my own finances through Fidelity, he had me right at a 400k spread between PIMIX, BND, and BSV. So far I'm 10%, I wanted to raise that to 20% as I plain on retiring in 4 years. I truthfully don't understand much about Bonds other than seeing negative red on my Fidelity charts from it. Can anyone help me understand if this is good, should I buy more right now, or hold off, or even sale what I have? Equities I'm good on and have that down to a science, but starting to learn the bonds side of things. Thanks for helping anyway you can.