r/dukascopy

Every morning, about 30 minutes before the market opens, I run through the same routine so I’m not just staring at my screen wondering what to do.

Here’s my pre-market checklist:

1. Check the market first

Before looking at individual stocks, I check the broader market because even a great setup can fail if the overall market is weak.

I usually pull up:

• SPY
• QQQ
• IWM

I’m looking to see if they’re all moving in the same direction. For example, if QQQ is red while the others are green, that could mean tech is weak, so I may avoid tech names that day.

2. Check the fear gauge

I also check the VIX.

If it’s under 15, the market is usually quite calm.
If it’s over 20, there’s more fear and volatility, so I may reduce my position size or be more cautious.

3. Look at the economic calendar

Next, I check the economic calendar.

I filter for:

• United States
• High-impact events only

I’m mainly looking for things like CPI, jobs reports, inflation data, Fed-related events, or anything else that could move the market.

If there’s a major report coming out, I avoid trading around that time because the market can reverse very quickly.

4. Check pre-market news and movers

Then I look at pre-market movers and market news.

I’m trying to figure out two things:

• Is there a bigger story that could set the tone for the whole market? For example, Fed news, oil, inflation, or macro headlines.
• Is anything on my watchlist being mentioned? Earnings, analyst upgrades, downgrades, guidance, or major company-specific news.

If a stock is moving a lot pre-market, I want to know whether there’s a real catalyst behind it or if it’s just random movement.

5. Narrow down my watchlist

Once I understand the broader market and the news, I narrow my watchlist down to two or three names.

Then I focus on the technicals and map out:

• Entry
• Stop loss
• Price target

Sometimes I’ll actively watch the chart. Other times, I’ll set price alerts and only come back if the stock reaches the level I’m interested in.

The biggest thing this routine helps me avoid is blindly buying just because the market looks green. Some days the market may close green overall, but still have a sharp selloff at the open. Doing pre-market prep helps me avoid getting caught in those moves without a plan.

Curious what everyone else checks before the open. What’s part of your pre-market routine?

We've been watching this week's data closely and Thursday's jobs report was a genuine shock worth breaking down.

Consensus was around 110k jobs. Actual was 57k. And it wasn't just the weak headline — April and May were both revised down by a combined 74k, meaning the labour market has been softer than anyone thought for months. Leisure and hospitality shed 61k jobs in a single month, partly a World Cup distortion, partly something more structural. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% but mostly because people left the labour force, not because hiring picked up.

What it did to gold

Gold had one of its worst Junes on record, falling well below $4,000 as a hawkish Fed narrative and a surging dollar crushed the trade. The moment 57k printed, gold bounced. Dollar softened, short-end yields fell, and the debasement trade got some air back. One print doesn't change the structural picture, but it removed the near-term headwind that's been weighing on the metal since mid-June.

What it did to Bitcoin

BTC briefly cleared $62,000 on the number. Same macro logic: soft jobs = Fed on hold = dollar weaker = non-yielding assets catch a bid. Bitcoin has been trading like a macro asset lately rather than pure risk-on, and Thursday confirmed that dynamic. When gold moves, Bitcoin is following.

Why the Fed holds in July

Before this report there was genuine chatter about a July hike. That's gone now. With employment softening, oil prices falling and the inflation picture mixed, Warsh has cover to hold and watch rather than rush a move. Most market participants now see December as the earliest realistic window for any hike — and even that depends on whether July and August payrolls bounce back strongly. The World Cup distortion in leisure and hospitality means July's number could swing hard either way.

The bigger question for the second half: is 57k a genuine cooling trend or a one-month blip? That answer decides whether the rate-hike story comes back in August or fades entirely. Gold, Bitcoin, the dollar and the 2-year yield are all pointing the same direction right now. When that alignment happens it usually signals a macro regime shift, not noise.

We'll be watching closely. You can trade gold, Bitcoin, forex and more on the Dukascopy platform with tight spreads and full access to the macro events that move markets.