Been watching this pair chop around 0.811 all week, franc's weakest in about a year, but there's no real momentum either direction. Feels like everyone's just parked waiting for Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday before committing.

What's odd technically: normally a level like this with the franc this weak, you'd expect some safe-haven bid to show up on any bad headline. It hasn't. SNB's sitting at 0% and has flagged it'll intervene if the franc moves "too fast," so there's a soft ceiling on how much downside conviction anyone wants to have here.

Anyone got levels they're watching on USD/CHF or EUR/CHF this week? Curious if people are treating this as a range-bound chop or if there's a breakout thesis I'm missing.

USD/CHF is sitting around 0.811 this week, the franc's weakest stretch in about a year. Normally that's when everyone starts asking "is the SNB about to cut into negative again," but this time the central bank's actually holding at 0%, and most economists don't see a hike until 2028 despite currency markets pricing one in as early as next March.

What's wild is the franc used to be the reflexive safe-haven trade the second anything geopolitical flared up. This time, even with Middle East tensions still in the headlines, CHF hasn't done its usual flight-to-safety spike. The SNB's actively signalling it'll step in and sell francs if things move "too fast," which is a very different posture from the last decade of "the franc is too strong, please stop."

Feels like a genuine regime shift in how the market's pricing Swiss risk, not just short-term noise. Anyone here actually trading USD/CHF or EUR/CHF into Jackson Hole this week, or sitting this one out until there's a cleaner signal from the SNB's September meeting?

USD/CHF is sitting around 0.811 this week, the franc's weakest stretch in about a year. Normally that's when everyone starts asking "is the SNB about to cut into negative again," but this time the central bank's actually holding at 0%, and most economists don't see a hike until 2028 despite currency markets pricing one in as early as next March.

What's wild is the franc used to be the reflexive safe-haven trade the second anything geopolitical flared up. This time, even with Middle East tensions still in the headlines, CHF hasn't done its usual flight-to-safety spike. The SNB's actively signalling it'll step in and sell francs if things move "too fast," which is a very different posture from the last decade of "the franc is too strong, please stop."

Feels like a genuine regime shift in how the market's pricing Swiss risk, not just short-term noise. Anyone here actually trading USD/CHF or EUR/CHF into Jackson Hole this week, or sitting this one out until there's a cleaner signal from the SNB's September meeting?

We went through SpaceX's first set of numbers as a public company. Five things stood out to us.

Revenue is genuinely surging — up 92% YoY, driven by more satellite launches plus the AI data center side of the business, which is apparently booming too.

But costs are climbing right alongside it. Scaling satellite and rocket production isn't cheap, and that shows up fast on the expense line.

The headline number everyone's talking about: Musk telling investors he thinks the company can hit a $100B annual revenue run rate by year end. If that actually happens, it blows past what Wall Street was pricing in. Big "if" though.

Starlink is quietly becoming the real story. 12 million subscribers now, still adding satellites, and they're pushing into ground-based mobile network territory — which is a direct shot at Verizon and T-Mobile's turf. That's the part I'd watch more than the rocket headlines.

Market reaction was mixed. Shares actually dipped initially on the print — investors nervous about the sheer amount of cash being burned. The next real test is whether insiders start selling now that they have the option. That's usually the thing that puts pressure on a stock like this, not the earnings print itself.

Curious what others make of the insider-selling angle, feels like the more relevant risk than the growth numbers themselves.

A data-heavy week, building toward Friday's US jobs report. Here's the calendar (times GMT unless noted):

Monday, Aug 3

• CNY: China Manufacturing PMI
• EUR: German Retail Sales
• CHF: Swiss CPI
• USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)

Tuesday, Aug 4

• NZD: New Zealand Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Q2)
• USD: JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders (June)

Wednesday, Aug 5

• CNY: China Services PMI
• USD: ADP Private Employment Report (July)
• USD: ISM Services PMI (July)

Thursday, Aug 6

• AUD: Trade Balance
• NZD: RBNZ Inflation Expectations Survey (Q3)
• EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
• USD: Weekly Jobless Claims, Q2 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs

Friday, Aug 7 — the big one

• CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate (July)
• USD: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate (July)

The key event of the week is Friday's US employment report. Recent NFP prints have been volatile and subject to sharp revisions, so expect outsized moves across USD pairs, gold and equity indices going into and after the release. The ADP report Wednesday often sets the tone ahead of it, though the correlation between the two isn't always tight.

Also worth watching: China's PMIs (Mon/Wed) for read-through to AUD and NZD, and Swiss CPI Monday, which factors into the SNB's next policy move.

This is a calendar overview, not trading advice — high-impact releases can move markets fast in either direction. Manage your risk accordingly.

Big week for corporate earnings, with Q2 reports landing from names across tech, pharma, industrials and consumer. Here's what's on the radar:

Monday, Aug 3

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
• Walt Disney (DIS)
• Uber Technologies (UBER)
• Eli Lilly (LLY)
• CVS Health (CVS)
• Kraft Heinz (KHC)
• DoorDash (DASH)
• Phillips 66 (PSX)

Tuesday, Aug 4

• Caterpillar (CAT)
• McDonald's (MCD)
• Merck (MRK)
• Pfizer (PFE)
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, after close)
• Spotify (SPOT)
• BioNTech (BNTX)
• Duke Energy (DUK)

Wednesday, Aug 5

• Shopify (SHOP)
• Novo Nordisk (NVO)
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
• eBay (EBAY)
• Etsy (ETSY)
• Duolingo (DUOL)
• Expedia (EXPE)

Thursday, Aug 6

• Airbnb (ABNB)
• The Trade Desk (TTD)
• Datadog (DDOG)
• ConocoPhillips (COP)
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
• Ralph Lauren (RL)
• DraftKings (DKNG)
• Roku (ROKU)

Friday, Aug 7

• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

The standout: Palantir and Disney kick off the week Monday, AMD reports Tuesday after the bell, and Airbnb headlines Thursday alongside a heavy tech/ad-spend cluster (Datadog, The Trade Desk, Roku). Expect elevated volatility around these prints, particularly in options-heavy names like PLTR and AMD.

As always, this is a data overview, not a trade recommendation — earnings reactions can be sharp and unpredictable in both directions. Trade your own plan and manage risk accordingly.

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Four of the Mag Seven report within about 24 hours of each other this week, right after Alphabet and Tesla both beat estimates and got sold off hard on capex concerns. Intel did the same thing Friday: best revenue growth since 2011, still fell 8%. So the question for this week isn't "will they beat," it's "will a beat actually hold."

Tuesday
Visa, after close. Cleanest consumer spending read of the week, $15 trillion in payments processed annually. Boeing and UPS also report.

Wednesday
Microsoft and Meta, after close. Azure growth and AI infra spend for MSFT. Ad pricing and Reality Labs losses for META. Starbucks reports before open too.

Thursday
Apple and Amazon, after close. Apple's walking in strongest, fresh all-time high above $317 on the Alibaba AI deal and the Intel chip partnership, consensus EPS of $1.89. Amazon's the harder story: AWS growth vs AWS capex, plus they just trimmed AI headcount while spending climbs.

Friday
ExxonMobil, before open. Read on how much of this month's oil spike actually shows up in earnings vs staying a macro headline.

If even one of Wednesday/Thursday's four posts a beat that doesn't get punished, that breaks the pattern. If not, "beat but fell" isn't an earnings season quirk anymore, it's just how the market's pricing AI capex right now.

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Markets went from pricing almost zero chance of a hike a month ago to 34% now. What changed: oil spiked toward $100 on the Iran situation, and jobless claims hit 187,000, the lowest print since 1969. Tight labor market plus rising oil is exactly the combo that makes a "hold" harder to justify.

Wednesday, July 29
FOMC decision, 18:00 GMT. Hold at 3.50–3.75% is still the base case, no fresh dot plot this month, so the statement language and the press conference matter more than usual. This is also the new chair's first meeting running the show.

Thursday, July 30
Two big ones back to back. Q2 GDP (advance) and the PCE inflation print, the Fed's preferred gauge, both around 12:30 GMT, less than a day after the rate decision. A hot PCE reopens the whole hike debate. A soft one validates the hold.

Friday, July 31
Employment Cost Index and the final UMich consumer sentiment read close out the week.

Also worth knowing: new US tariffs on 60 trading partners, covering about 99% of trade, took effect Friday. That's now baked into the inflation picture heading into Wednesday's decision.

Basically: the Fed has to make a call using data that's actively fighting itself, then get graded on it less than 24 hours later by the report they care about most.

Hello all

Netflix released Q2 2026 results after Thursday's close and fell as much as 9% in after-hours trading. Worth understanding why, because the headline number was actually fine, it's the guide that spooked the market.

The print itself: EPS came in at $0.80 versus $0.79 expected, a beat. Revenue was $12.56 billion, up 13% year on year but a touch light against the roughly $12.58-12.59 billion analysts were pencilling in, close enough to call in-line. Operating margin held at 33.4%, down slightly from 34.1% a year ago.

The part that actually moved the stock: Q3 guidance. Netflix guided to 11.7% revenue growth to $12.86 billion, short of the ~$13 billion the Street wanted. Full-year guidance was narrowed to $51.0-51.4 billion from a wider $50.7-51.7 billion range, technically not a cut, but read by the market as a deceleration signal regardless.

Context matters here. Shares were already down almost 20% year to date and roughly 45% off their 52-week high heading into this report, trading in the low $70s, not far above the 52-week low of $70.86. So this isn't a stock falling from strength, it's extending an existing slide.

The bull case: Netflix bought back $4.7 billion of stock in Q2, the largest single-quarter repurchase in company history, with roughly $27 billion of authorisation still remaining. Ad revenue is tracking to double to around $3 billion in 2026. Management leans hard on scale, global reach and engagement as a self-sustaining moat.

The bear case: engagement metrics remain soft against intense streaming competition, content amortisation is running at its heaviest pace of the year this quarter, and Netflix has now stopped reporting subscriber counts altogether in favour of regional revenue figures, making the growth story harder to independently verify than it used to be.

To me Netflix has been the kind of company that's too big to fail, global reach, a brand name people recognise everywhere. On the other hand, the stock hasn't traded at these levels since the second half of 2024.

Do you see this as a buying opportunity, or a name that's better watched from the sidelines for now?

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Four earnings reports and one central bank decision give this week its shape, with oil and the Middle East sitting underneath all of it as the wildcard.

Monday opens quiet on the calendar, existing home sales the only real print, but worth watching regardless: we're now inside the Fed's blackout window ahead of the 29 July FOMC meeting, so no Fed speakers this week means less noise, not less risk, since the next real signal on rates doesn't land until the following week.

Tuesday, Alphabet reports after the close, first of the "Mag Seven" names this earnings season. How the market reads AI capex spend here tends to set the tone for the tech names reporting behind it.

Wednesday is the cluster point: Tesla and IBM both report after the close, same day. Two large-cap reactions landing within hours of each other usually means outsized index volatility that evening regardless of which way either print goes.

Thursday is the heaviest day on the docket. The ECB announces its rate decision, markets are pricing roughly 93% odds of no change after June's surprise hike to a 2.25% deposit rate, a move driven by Middle East-linked inflation rather than the usual growth story, so Lagarde's language on energy prices matters more than the number itself. Same day: Intel reports after the close, coming off a strong Q1, with foundry ramp and data centre demand the figures to watch. Add in US initial jobless claims and flash S&P PMIs for the US, eurozone and UK, and Thursday alone carries more scheduled risk than the rest of the week combined.

Friday is comparatively quiet, mostly the market digesting what Thursday delivered.

Underneath the calendar: oil remains the connective thread. Any escalation risk out of the Middle East feeds straight into the inflation conversation the ECB is already having, and that's the kind of headline that moves markets faster than any scheduled print.

I see a lot of people here asking "is X a buy?" without ever opening the stats page. Here's the quick pass I do on every ticker before going any deeper — and since we're on Reddit, let's use RDDT as the example.

1. Market cap, not share price. RDDT trades around $170, which tells you nothing on its own. Market cap = share price × shares outstanding, and Reddit's is about $33.6B. That makes it a large cap ($10B–$200B) — established, but with more room to run than a mega cap like Meta.

2. Forward P/E. This is current price divided by forecasted earnings per share — it tells you whether you're paying a sane price or buying hype. RDDT's forward P/E is ~38. Investors are paying $38 for every $1 of profit the company is expected to earn next year, per analyst estimates. Not cheap, but not meme-tier either.

3. EPS, and more importantly its direction. Earnings per share = net income ÷ shares outstanding. Two years ago Reddit was losing money — EPS was −$3.33. Today it's +$3.15 (TTM). A swing from negative to positive like that is the growth story in one number.

4. Dividend yield. The percentage of the share price paid back to shareholders each year. Utilities and consumer staples pay decent yields; growth tech like Reddit pays 0% because everything gets reinvested into the business. A 0% yield isn't a red flag here — it's expected for the category.

5. Price vs. the 52-week range. RDDT's range is $157–$180 and it sits around $170 — right in the middle. Not knife-catching a crash, not buying the euphoric top.

Bonus: know the actual business. Reddit is the biggest community-driven forum on the internet, and it historically struggled to monetize. What changed recently: licensing its data to Google and OpenAI for AI training, which turned into a real revenue line. That context matters more than any single ratio.

None of this replaces real DD — it's the two-minute filter that tells you whether deeper research is worth your time. Numbers above are from when I pulled the page, so check them fresh before acting.

Not financial advice.

I see a lot of people here asking "is X a buy?" without ever opening the stats page. Here's the quick pass I do on every ticker before going any deeper and since we're on Reddit, let's use RDDT as the example.

1. Market cap, not share price. RDDT trades around $170, which tells you nothing on its own. Market cap = share price × shares outstanding, and Reddit's is about $33.6B. That makes it a large cap ($10B–$200B) — established, but with more room to run than a mega cap like Meta.

2. Forward P/E. This is current price divided by forecasted earnings per share — it tells you whether you're paying a sane price or buying hype. RDDT's forward P/E is ~38. Investors are paying $38 for every $1 of profit the company is expected to earn next year, per analyst estimates. Not cheap, but not meme-tier either.

3. EPS, and more importantly its direction. Earnings per share = net income ÷ shares outstanding. Two years ago Reddit was losing money — EPS was −$3.33. Today it's +$3.15 (TTM). A swing from negative to positive like that is the growth story in one number.

4. Dividend yield. The percentage of the share price paid back to shareholders each year. Utilities and consumer staples pay decent yields; growth tech like Reddit pays 0% because everything gets reinvested into the business. A 0% yield isn't a red flag here — it's expected for the category.

5. Price vs. the 52-week range. RDDT's range is $157–$180 and it sits around $170 — right in the middle. Not knife-catching a crash, not buying the euphoric top.

Bonus: know the actual business. Reddit is the biggest community-driven forum on the internet, and it historically struggled to monetize. What changed recently: licensing its data to Google and OpenAI for AI training, which turned into a real revenue line. That context matters more than any single ratio.

None of this replaces real DD — it's the two-minute filter that tells you whether deeper research is worth your time. Numbers above are from when I pulled the page, so check them fresh before acting.

Not financial advice.

I've been trading through a lot of busy weeks this year but this one genuinely stands out. Everything lands at once, and it all matters.

Tuesday is the main event.

June CPI drops at 8:30am ET. Headline is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year from 4.2% — that would be the first meaningful disinflation read since the Iran war drove energy prices to multi-year highs. Core is expected to stay elevated near 2.9%. A soft print kills the July rate-hike fear and probably sends equities and bonds higher. A hot print — especially with oil spiking again after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" last week — could be genuinely destabilising given everything else happening the same morning.

And then, 90 minutes after CPI drops, Kevin Warsh walks into Congress for his first ever testimony as Fed chair. He's been deliberately opaque since taking the role. Congress will ask him directly: are you hiking in July? Does Iran's oil spike change your inflation view? His answer on the July meeting is the single most market-sensitive sentence of the week.

Oh, and five of the six largest US banks also report before the open that morning.

Wednesday brings PPI and ASML.
PPI follows CPI a day later, giving a fuller picture of the inflation pipeline. ASML — the Dutch EUV machine maker that every advanced chip fab in the world depends on — reports Wednesday, and its order book is the most forward-looking signal in the semiconductor supply chain. SK Hynix just committed $7.8 billion to new EUV machines by 2027. Watch what ASML says about delivery timelines.

The Iran wildcard.
Trump declared the ceasefire "over" last week after three waves of US strikes. Iran fired back at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Oil jumped 7% on the week. Watch the oil price at Monday's open — that's the first read on how markets are digesting the weekend. A Hormuz closure or further escalation into energy infrastructure sends everything repricing fast.

My setup going in:
Long volatility into Tuesday — CPI plus Warsh plus five bank earnings in the same morning session is the kind of confluence that moves markets hard in either direction. Watching USD pairs around CPI and Warsh, oil for the Iran signal, and gold to see whether the safe-haven bid finally comes back after last week's counterintuitive drop.

All of the above is tradeable on Dukascopy, forex, commodities, indices and equity CFDs in one place, which matters when you're tracking multiple markets simultaneously through a week like this.

After a few weeks of mixed signals — Nike missing, PepsiCo's North America volumes cracking, Levi beating and still falling — we finally get the data that actually matters this week. Five of the six largest US banks report Tuesday morning, and the rest of the week is stacked.

JPMorgan (JPM) — Tuesday before open
The tone-setter. JPMorgan beat Q1 by more than 9% and revenue was up 10% year-on-year. What I'm watching: credit-card charge-off rates and loan-loss provisions. That's where you'll see whether the consumer stress signals from Nike and Pepsi show up in actual banking data. If JPM's charge-offs are rising, the consumer picture gets a lot darker.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) — Thursday
The AI trade's final Q2 checkpoint. After Micron's blowout quarter and SK Hynix's 17% Nasdaq debut pop, TSMC is the last piece of the puzzle. Its capacity guidance and revenue growth will show whether the memory supercycle extends into the foundry layer or whether demand is being pulled forward. The stock is up 43% in 2026 but 9% off its June high — the bar is high.

Netflix (NFLX) — Thursday
Consensus is $0.79 EPS and $12.6 billion revenue, with options pricing in a 7.3% move. Two things to watch beyond the numbers: World Cup engagement data (streaming platforms captured unusual June viewership) and any update on live-programming expansion. Netflix is reportedly exploring a bid to stream the 2030 World Cup — if that gets confirmed or developed further on the call, it's a new revenue narrative.

UnitedHealth (UNH) — Thursday
Healthcare led all sectors last week as investors rotated defensively. UNH is the biggest name in that trade. The risk: it's not just about the macro rotation. UNH has a cyberattack aftermath, rising medical costs and regulatory scrutiny all hanging over it. A clean quarter validates the defensive rotation; a miss reverses it hard.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to jump 23.4% in Q2 overall. The question isn't whether earnings are good — they probably will be. It's whether the market rewards them after a "beat-but-fell" pattern that defined last week. CrowdStrike, Broadcom, Levi and PepsiCo all beat and dropped. The bar has been reset higher.

Trading most of these on Dukascopy this week, tight spreads across US equities and options-adjacent CFDs make it the cleanest way to position around binary earnings prints.