Macro week ahead: FOMC minutes and ISM Services — what traders are watching July 6-10
After last week's jobs shock (57k vs 110k expected), this week is all about context and confirmation.
The Fed's June minutes drop Wednesday July 8. That meeting was Warsh's first as chair, and the dot plot shifted hard hawkish — nine officials signalling at least one hike by year-end. The minutes pre-date Thursday's soft jobs print, so there's going to be a gap between what the committee was thinking in June and what the data is now saying. The market will be parsing every line for how close they were to hiking outright and what would pull the trigger.
Before that, ISM Services PMI lands Monday. Services is the bigger part of the economy (manufacturing already slipped to 53.3). If services weakens too, the "Fed on hold" story gets a lot more compelling.
RBNZ decides Wednesday. Expected to hike. Worth watching for forward guidance, it's one of the first central banks navigating the same energy-driven inflation problem everyone else has.
Thursday brings jobless claims — the weekly read on whether last week's soft payrolls was a trend or a World Cup distortion. Friday is light.
The week builds a picture ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. CPI lands July 14, Q2 GDP and PCE July 30. Markets are essentially in data-dependency mode until then.
Trading on Dukascopy this week: USD pairs on ISM and minutes, EUR/NZD on RBNZ, gold and yields around the minutes.
