r/eb1c

EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear)

Crowdsourcing where EB1 India FAD lands in the Oct 2026 bulletin. Drop your guess.

WHERE WE ARE (June 2026)

• FAD: Dec 15, 2022 (retrogressed 3.5 months from Apr 1, 2023)
• DOF: Dec 1, 2023
• DOS warned more retrogression or "unavailable" possible before Sept 30
• India cap ~9,800 EB visas/yr normal, 13-18K in spillover years

LATEST I-485 INVENTORY (USCIS released Mar 24, 2026, snapshot Jan 2, 2026)

• Apr 2025 release had ~15,530 EB1 India pending through end of 2022
• DOF sat at Apr 1 / Dec 1, 2023 through late 2025-early 2026, so inventory grew into 2023 PDs
• Working estimate: ~18-22K EB1 India I-485s pending, stacked heavy in 2021-2023
• Total EB I-485 inventory: ~180K across all categories

PORTER POOL (silent demand)

• FOIA data: ~313K EB2 India + ~68K EB3 India I-140s pending historically
• Strong profiles (PhDs, principals, MNC managers) port to EB1A/EB1B
• Each port consumes an India EB1 number invisible to EB1 I-140 receipts

HISTORICAL FB-TO-EB SPILLOVER

• FY21 (COVID): ~122K spillover, EB ceiling 262K
• FY23: ~57K spillover, ceiling 197K
• FY24: ceiling 160,791
• FY25: ceiling 150,037
• Pre-pandemic: usually 0-15K

FY27 SPILLOVER ESTIMATES (PP 10998 + Jan 21 75-country pause)

• Capitol Immigration Law Group: 200K+ EB total (~60K+ spillover)
• Emily Neumann (RNB): ~50K, ceiling ~190K
• GreenCardClock revised: ~55K base (10K floor / 90K adverse) after May bulletin showed DOS rerouting numbers, not letting them evaporate

BULL CASE - FAD Apr 2024 to Aug 2024

• Spillover ~90K+, closer to COVID windfall
• EB1 ROW underuses, unused falls to India first
• Porter velocity slows
• Oct bulletin overshoots like Jan 2026 did

BASE CASE - FAD Oct 2023 to Feb 2024

• Spillover 50-65K (GCC / Neumann range)
• Clean recovery of FY26 retrogression plus a few months
• Porter demand at current pace
• DOF moves to mid-late 2024

BEAR CASE - FAD Apr 2023 to Jul 2023

• DOS keeps rerouting unused FB numbers in FY26, FY27 pool near 10K floor
• Porter pressure surges
• 2022 PD inventory wall absorbs most supply
• DOS stays on FAD chart for EB AOS

DISCUSS

1. Your Oct 2026 FAD/DOF prediction and which case
2. Which spillover model do you trust
3. How much weight on porters - anyone seeing EB1A RFE trends shift?
4. If you have the Mar 2026 USCIS inventory file, post EB1 India bucket numbers

Sources: June 2026 DOS bulletin, USCIS I-485 inventory (Jan 2 snapshot, released Mar 24), USCIS FY23/24 AOS FAQs, Capitol Immigration Law Group Feb 2026, GreenCardClock May 2026, Times of India / Neumann Jan 2026, historical FOIA I-140 data.

My dependent got his combo card approved on Apr 6th and also received the card.

Primary application no update. No RfE and interview waived as per Emma.

Last 6 nights dependent closed ead and AP forms get a sa/h008 update every night but no touch on either of our i485. Did anyone else encounter this ?

I have received the great news of approval of my I-485, myself and family members (wife + 3 children). I received this news while traveling on advance parole. A true relief. Following is the history.

Professional: Global EdTech Advisor

Category ROW - (75 countries)

Visa - H1B

EB1C Concurrent Filed on July 9, 2025

Bimoatric - August 6, 2025

EAD and Advance Parole Approved on August 9, 2025, and Card Produced on August 15, 2026

I-140 Approved on September 1, 2025.

Interview waived

Silent update on January 26, 2026, March 2026, April 15, Emma confirmed that the Case transferred to FO Portland non-local.

Silent update on May 3, and May 15, 2026

On May 16, the case was approved.

Thank you to this community for guidance and support, it is truely amazing.

PS My EB2 NIW I-140 was also approved, but I didn't continue that.

Thank you, everyone.

Hi all,

I’m on L1A and my EB-1C I-140 was filed in Aug 2025 under regular processing at Nebraska Service Center (NSC).

Just wanted to check — anyone from India with similar timeline?

How long is it taking these days for approval?

Thanks!

Dear community.

I had an interview on 04/07 for EB1C and came across a strange situation with my profile mixed up with another person same name and dob as me. They mentioned would be approved post data fix. Anyone faced this or knows how long it takes..

Been impatiently waiting for it since then.

My 485J was approved on the interview day.

PD : 10/2022 India

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I have approved petitions under both EB-1A and EB-1C, with a priority date of July 2024. My EB-1A petition was approved about one month before my employer transferred me from Canada to the U.S. I am a Canadian citizen, but my country of birth is India.

Given the current layoffs, I am feeling uneasy because there is a possibility that I could be laid off at any time.

My question is: when the Date for Filing becomes current for me - it is currently December 2023, so still about eight months away - should I file my I-485 based on EB-1A or EB-1C?

Here are my concerns:

1. Filing under EB-1A
   • I would have to pay all filing fees myself.
   • If I am laid off, I may need to rely on my EB-1A petition.
   • However, this could become complicated if I am no longer employed in the U.S. at that time.
2. Filing under EB-1C
   • My employer would cover all filing costs.
   • However, I may be tied to my employer until the green card is approved, which could take one, two, or possibly three years after the Final Action Date becomes current.
   • If I am laid off before then, I may need to restart or shift the process using my EB-1A petition.

Additional context:

• I am currently in the U.S. on L-1A status.
• My wife is on L-2S status and relies on that for employment authorization.
• We have a one-year-old son.
• I have previously been counted under the H-1B cap. I was on H-1B status for only about two months before moving back to L-1A, mainly so my wife could continue using L-2S for employment.
• As Canadian citizens, we could technically return to the U.S. on TN status, but I am concerned that filing I-485 based on EB-1A while on TN status may create issues because TN is a nonimmigrant status.

Given all of this, which basis would be better for my I-485 filing: EB-1A or EB-1C?

I485J got approved but no updates on i485? PD is current it’s more than 2 months. Can anyone help ?