r/figmaStock

Bank of America raised its price target on Figma from $30 to $33 while maintaining its Buy rating.
According to The Fly, BofA cited broader software multiple expansion and easing concerns around AI disruption as factors behind the higher target.
BofA reportedly did not change its underlying estimates or fundamental view on Figma, so this appears to be primarily a valuation/multiple adjustment rather than a change to its financial forecasts.
This follows the recent post-earnings analyst updates after Figma reported 48% YoY revenue growth and raised its full-year revenue guidance.
Source (The Fly via TipRanks):
https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/figma-price-target-raised-to-33-from-30-at-bofa-thefly-news

My story. Started to buy at 70. Then tried to catch the falling knife and ended up averaging to 39.

2200 stocks, huge position in my portfolio.
limited hope I’ll be ever breakeven.
anyone else like me?

It's time to revisit Figma, I bought during the IPO frenzy after reading the S-1, it was trading around 50x+ sales and today it's ~5.8x forward, tbh it's cheap versus its own history

The business itself is hard to argue with cause Figma has became the operating system teams build inside, each new seat and product lands in the same account at almost no extra cost and because the whole org's work now lives on that shared system, leaving isn't just an easy software swap, it's retraining everyone and rebuilding everything. One account, more products every quarter, each one making the next easier to sell and the whole relationship harder to leave

That lock in is visible in the numbers:

• Net dollar retention up four straight quarters: 129% → 131% → 136% → 139%
• ~70% of customers on three or more products
• ~690k paid customers (+54% YoY), the $100K+ cohort up 48%

It also answered the bear case that crushed it. The fear during the SaaSpocalypse selloff and Claude Desing launch was that AI eats seat based pricing. Figma's response is to make AI usage credits on top of seats so more AI usage means more revenue, not less. The early data is showing most enterprise users who blew past their included credits kept paying for more, and teams that add credits spend 3x

The dip is real on price but GAAP profitability inflection does not look feasible in the short term: the GAAP loss is entirely stock compensation, but AI-inference costs are compressing margins and could push the GAAP inflection way into 2027 or 2028

If I buy, it's a <1% starter from my portfolio that earns its way up, full detailed analysis on my Substack for free: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/equivara/p/figma-now-that-the-ipo-hype-is-gone?r=8g3sj2&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

Are you holding Figma, or waiting for a better entry?

Disclosure: I don't own FIG. Personal thesis, not investment advice. Do your own research.

Figma CEO Dylan Field voluntarily surrendered a stock grant of 2.4 million Class B shares valued at approximately $46 million (based on the $19.49 Class A closing price on July 1) without receiving any replacement grant or alternative compensation.

The voluntary forfeiture was intended to shore up shareholder sentiment following steep declines in the stock price, which had fallen amid broader market concerns that generative AI tools could disrupt incumbent design software platforms.

Unlike typical executive re-grants or repricing arrangements, Field took a total forfeiture with zero replacement equity, absorbing a direct reduction in his potential holdings.

I really don't understand why this stock is priced so high. This company loses hundreds of millions per quarter, growth is slowing, the company is DYING! Not only that but as the company continues to decline and employees stock incentives are GOING UP! This is not a long term company, this is a company being run down to the ground by employees to fund their next SF Mansion while Figma investors continue to lose BILLIONS. Do not invest...

https://preview.redd.it/q0sa2a5nu6jh1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8c80f3cc0e418fc58b163544b7a26b6c85ffae9

I will try to buy back in the high 10s it seems like the 20s are just temporary every time

I think 35 per share is fair

Citi maintained its Buy rating on Figma and raised its price target from $35 to $37 following the company’s Q2 earnings report.
Figma reported:
• Revenue of $370.1M, +48% YoY
• Net Dollar Retention of 136%
• $100K+ ARR customers up 46% YoY
• Free cash flow of $53.2M
• More than 80% of $10K+ ARR customers consuming AI credits weekly
• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $1.463B–$1.467B
The stock sold off heavily following the report, with investors appearing to focus on increased AI infrastructure/inference costs, lower free-cash-flow margins, and the Q3 outlook implying approximately 36% YoY revenue growth.
Figma also had its final extended lockup release Friday, making approximately 77.7M previously restricted shares eligible to trade.
Despite those concerns, Citi’s post-earnings response was to maintain its Buy rating and increase its target to $37.

-20% after earnings.

 I think a lot of people are looking at this quarter through the wrong lens. Everyone seems focused on whether AI credits are a meaningful revenue driver today. Personally, I think the more important question is whether Figma is building the conditions for AI credits to become a meaningful revenue driver over the next few years. Weekly AI usage isn't the story it's just the leading indicator.

To me, the real unlock will be Figma is AI generating products using your company's own design system. That's the piece I think people are underestimating. Every enterprise has invested years and millions into components, tokens, accessibility rules and governance historical figma data abd usage . If Make can generate output using their design system, it goes from being a cool AI feature to becoming part of the product development workflow. And I don't really see another platform with the same opportunity here. Figma already owns the design system, the collaboration layer, and increasingly the handoff to engineering. That's a difficult position for a general-purpose AI tool to replicate.

The other thing people seem to overlook is that Figma has already said some of its newer AI products aren't yet fully monetised. To me, this looks like the "grow usage first, monetise later" playbook we've seen from plenty of successful software companies. Get teams using AI every day, make it part of how they work, then expand monetisation once those workflows become indispensable. That's a much stronger long-term strategy than trying to maximise AI revenue from day one.

I could be completely wrong, but if this plays out, the question in two years won't be "How many AI credits did Figma sell this quarter?" It'll be "How many enterprises now rely on Figma AI to create products using their own design system?" If that becomes standard, AI credits stop looking like a feature and start looking like infrastructure. That's the thesis I'm watching. Still plenty to back here in my eyes.

Thoughts?