
r/guam

N 0 0 s e post from earlier. 988 Guam helpline
I appreciate all the messages and concerns. I tried 988 and they just didn’t seem helpful. They wanted me to go to their main office in Tamuning. I not asking for any more help. I just want to die. Too much loss the last few years and no end in sight.
I sat on these thoughts for a little bit now it’s time. good riddance cold world.
why are yigo mail workers so rude
bruh all I said was goodmorning that gay lil man is so sarcastic and unhappy like bruh ok damn
Without nature, Guam isn't special.
Ive been on Guam for 3 years, and enjoyed it so much I've decided to become a permanent resident. However, I am very worried about the future of the Island. There are many parties that see Guam as nothing but a cash cow; including every single politician on Island. The enviorment is this Islands most precious rescource, and many people dont see it that way because it offers no profit incentive. But the entirety of the united states, is in a drought now and, in 30 years maximum, a damp climate will be highly sought after. Protect whats yours. As soon as you statt prioritizing Money over your land, this place will be a shithole indistinguishable from Cleveland Ohio in a day. I promise you the states isnt that special; Guam is special.
negative experience w cars plus?
it’s taken them 6 months to order my car parts for repair. took another month to schedule maintenance. took car in for repair, left it for a few days, they said everything went ok but they actually didn’t replace the part at all due to ordering the wrong size and gave me an oil change instead. tried to charge me for it. argued that they didn’t communicate that with me or even shoot me a text or call.
two months later finally got serviced w the right size, then on the drive home the problem literally happened again, now they’re making me wait to take it in again.
it’s so hard to get basic service from them and they aren’t that helpful and accommodating when i’m there either.
it was never this bad of a service with other dealerships and it’s my first car from cars plus so just wondering if anyone else has had negative experiences with them as well? at this point i feel it’s more beneficial to just go to a car repair shop for help instead.
JTWC Warning #3 Analysis – Tropical Cyclone 17W
JTWC 17W Update Analysis
Converted to mph and miles for easier reading
Summary
This update is more interesting for the Marianas than Warning #2, mainly because 17W unexpectedly moved west-southwest during the past six hours.
17W is about 161 miles east-northeast of Chuuk.
It moved west-southwest at about 4 mph.
Significant wave height is about 13 feet.
JTWC believes the southwest motion is probably temporary and partly related to the still-forming circulation.
Steering remains very weak, which makes short-term movement less predictable.
A more poleward/north-northwest motion is still expected within about 12 hours.
A westward turn is forecast around 60–72 hours, near the time 17W crosses the Northern Marianas.
Rapid intensification remains forecast from about 36–72 hours.
JTWC expects an increase of at least 60 mph during the RI period.
The eventual peak remains just below super typhoon strength.
Some ensemble members still reach as far south as Rota.
Track confidence remains only medium.
Forecast Change Score: 6.5/10
The long-term forecast philosophy hasn’t changed dramatically.
What’s changed is the actual observed motion.
Previous update:
WNW at ~6 mph
Current update:
WSW at ~4 mph
That’s worth watching because every mile 17W gains south or west before its expected poleward turn can affect where its eventual westward bend intersects the Marianas.
But JTWC is not interpreting this as the beginning of a sustained southwest track.
Why Did 17W Suddenly Move Southwest?
This is an important distinction.
JTWC believes part of what we’re seeing may be caused by the storm’s circulation still consolidating.
The strongest winds are currently concentrated southeast of the developing center. As that area wraps cyclonically around the circulation, it can cause the apparent center to relocate or move southwest.
In other words, some of this may be:
the center reorganizing rather than the entire cyclone being strongly steered southwest.
17W is also still shallow and sitting in a weak steering environment.
That combination makes these little movements much easier.
This is quite different from a mature typhoon being firmly pushed southwest by a strong ridge.
Track and Steering
The next 12–24 hours are particularly important.
Right now, 17W has several weak steering influences competing with one another.
Currently
The shallow cyclone is embedded in an elongated trough providing a weak westward push.
At the same time, a near-equatorial ridge southeast of 17W is building.
That ridge should eventually push 17W more poleward.
JTWC therefore still expects:
WSW now → poleward/NNW within ~12 hours → NW → eventually more westward approaching the Marianas
Around Day 2½–3
This is where things become especially important for the islands.
A subtropical ridge northeast of 17W should build westward.
That effectively closes off the weakness that 17W had been moving toward and causes the cyclone to turn more westward.
JTWC expects that turn to occur around the same time 17W reaches the Northern Marianas.
So where the cyclone is located before that westward turn begins could make a substantial difference.
Rapid Intensification
The RI signal remains strong.
For approximately the next 36 hours, JTWC expects more normal strengthening while:
Wind shear decreases
The circulation becomes more symmetrical
Upper-level outflow improves
Then:
Rapid intensification is forecast from roughly 36–72 hours.
JTWC expects winds to increase by at least 55 knots, equivalent to approximately 63 mph, during that period.
That’s a substantial increase.
Importantly, the expected RI period overlaps with the cyclone’s approach toward the Northern Marianas.
After crossing the island chain, strengthening should slow and eventually plateau just below super typhoon intensity.
So we’re still potentially looking at a major typhoon crossing the northern CNMI.
Model Guidance
The deterministic models remain reasonably well clustered on the overall NNW/NW track.
There are two notable eastern outliers:
JGSM and ECMWF deterministic
They initially take 17W northeast before eventually bending northwest.
That would generally favor a farther-north passage.
But the ensemble spread tells us there is still meaningful uncertainty.
ECENS, ECAIE and GEFS all contain individual members extending as far south as:
Rota
Again, that doesn’t mean Rota is forecast to be hit.
It means the southern edge of the plausible envelope still reaches that far.
One reason for the continued uncertainty is particularly important: JTWC isn’t completely confident in the exact location of the consolidating low-level center yet.
If the starting position changes as the circulation organizes, later model tracks can shift as well.
Island Risk Assessment
My interpretation of this JTWC update, not official probabilities.
Guam
Direct eyewall risk: Very Low to Low
Estimated direct-hit chance: 3–7%
Overall impact risk: Low to Moderate
Trend: Slightly higher
The WSW movement is worth watching, but the official forecast and deterministic consensus remain well north of Guam. Guam would require a substantial southern forecast shift. I wouldn’t raise Guam’s risk dramatically based on this one short-term movement.
Rota
Direct eyewall risk: Low to Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 7–12%
Overall impact risk: Moderate
Trend: Slightly higher
Rota remains near the southern edge of the ensemble envelope. The unexpected WSW motion makes that southern envelope a little more noteworthy, but Rota is still not near the most likely track.
Tinian
Direct eyewall risk: Low to Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 10–18%
Overall impact risk: Moderate
Trend: Slightly higher
Tinian remains south of the favored corridor, but there is enough uncertainty in the initial center position and future westward turn that it deserves continued monitoring.
Saipan
Direct eyewall risk: Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 15–25%
Overall impact risk: Moderate to High
Trend: Roughly unchanged
Saipan remains considerably closer to the favored corridor than Guam or Rota. A modest southward adjustment could become important for Saipan.
Pagan
Direct eyewall risk: High
Overall impact risk: Very High
Trend: Remains highest
The northern CNMI remains the primary threat area under the current JTWC forecast. A major typhoon could be approaching this region in roughly three days.
Agrihan / Alamagan
Direct eyewall risk: Moderate to High
Overall impact risk: High to Very High
These islands remain within the broader northern CNMI threat corridor.
What I’m Watching Now
The next observed movement is probably more important than another small model fluctuation.
JTWC expects 17W to start moving more poleward within about 12 hours.
If we see that happen:
WSW → WNW/NW → NNW
then today’s southwest movement was probably just the temporary reorganization JTWC describes.
If instead 17W continues west or west-southwest for another 12–24 hours, that’s when I would become noticeably more concerned about a future southward track adjustment toward Saipan/Tinian/Rota.
The second thing is the location of the low-level circulation center. Once that consolidates, the models should have a better starting point, and track confidence may improve substantially.
Bottom Line
This update does not mean 17W is suddenly heading toward Guam.
But the unexpected west-southwest movement is worth paying attention to because steering is weak and the circulation is still organizing.
JTWC still expects a poleward turn soon, followed by a northwestward track and eventually a more westward bend across the Northern Mariana Islands.
The primary threat remains Pagan and the northern CNMI, with Saipan next in line.
The next 12–24 hours should tell us a lot: if the forecast poleward motion begins, the current track remains on course. If it doesn’t and 17W keeps drifting west/southwest, the risk assessment for the populated southern islands will need to be raised.
Maybe this will somehow reach you, Thomas 🥹
Okay, please don’t judge me. 😂 I know this is probably a little crazy, but I honestly don’t know how else to reach you.
Hi, Thomas. I don’t really know much about you. Honestly, I only know your first name. 😂 We’ve only met twice, but somehow those two times stayed in my mind.
It’s funny because we didn’t even spend that much time together, but sometimes the smallest moments with someone can stay with you for some reason. I don’t know if you even remember those moments the way I do, but I do. 🥹
And I still want to say thank you for my Chelsea Coach bag. ❤️ I really love it. It was such a sweet thing for you to give me, and I appreciate it more than you probably realize. Every time I use it, I’ll probably remember you and think about those two times we met. 😂👜
I know after we met, you blocked me. I honestly don’t know why. Maybe I said something that offended you, maybe I misunderstood something, or maybe you just didn’t want to continue talking. If I ever made you uncomfortable or said something wrong, I’m genuinely sorry. That was never my intention. 🥺
I’m not posting this to pressure you or ask anyone to find you. I just wish I could reach you one more time and say the things I never got to say.
Because honestly… If I knew that the last time we met would be the last time I’d ever see you, I would’ve stayed longer. 🥺I would’ve talked to you more. I would’ve laughed more. I would’ve enjoyed those few extra minutes instead of thinking I could always see you again.And honestly, I would’ve hugged you a little tighter. ❤️
I didn’t know it was goodbye.That’s probably why I keep thinking about it. If I had known, I would’ve paid more attention to the moment instead of letting it pass like it was just another ordinary day.
And the funny thing is, Guam is such a small island. 😂 I keep thinking, *There’s no way I’ll never see this person again.*But somehow, here we are.Maybe someday we’ll randomly run into each other at a store, a restaurant, somewhere around the island… who knows? 😂
And if that ever happens, I still want to cook you chicken adobo. 😂❤️ I don’t know if you even like chicken adobo, but now you have no choice because I already promised. 😭😂
I know this sounds ridiculous because we only met twice and I literally don’t even know your last name. 😂 But I guess sometimes you don’t need years of knowing someone for a moment to become meaningful.
P.S. Please really don’t judge me. 😭😂 I only ever talked to him through Reddit and Snapchat, and now I can’t reach him anymore. I’m not trying to invade his privacy or bother him. I just wanted to take one little chance and hope that somehow, this post reaches him.
So, Thomas, if you somehow see this…
Hi. 🥹❤️
I hope you’re doing okay. I hope life is treating you well.And if you ever decide you want to talk again, even just a simple “hi,” I’d be happy to hear from you.
Until then, I’ll just keep my Chelsea Coach bag and my chicken adobo promise. 😂❤️
looking to join a new gym
been at paradise for so long but looking to try a new gym. i’m going primarily for weights but wouldn’t be opposed to having a gym w fun activities too like workout classes.
price isn’t much of an issue, as long as the gym has good hours, good vibes and good equipment. feel free to lmk what your gym is and why you love/ hate it. thanks in advance!
Tired of Power Outages and Poisoned Water? Vote For New Members of the CCU.
CCU positions are up for election this year. If you're tired of GPA's failure at providing reliable power and GWA providing contaminated water then I highly suggest voting for new members of the CCU. Culprit #1 is CCU Chairman, Simon Sanchez. He promised us rainbows and unicorns but instead what we got was a dogshit power plant constructed and operated by a Korean corporation. He is an apologist for GWA's lack of proper screening and customer notification when unsafe levels of dieldrin were detected in our water system.
Thank you Guam for K-pop!!
I saw the click-bait title below, rage clicked, realized it was meant sarcastic and decided to share some I love Guam stories of my own. 3rd year of my residence here btw.
This island is so special, they started K-pop without realizing it. Please take credit and as an old school OG K-pop fan & Korean who is witnessing the amazing outcome of our combined music, thank you from the bottom of my heart.
Gonna be a long story. Perfect for a rainy Wednesday morning.
‘Massive Attack’ has been covering one of our legendary rock bands (Seotaiji) in our own language and they claim ‘K-pop started in Resistance’ and got me thinking - yes the legendary UK band Massive Attack probably has a point, but, why don’t ppl talk about how K-pop started here in Guam.
I’ll share this story for whoever doesn’t know,
Or whoever is interested.
SES: The mother of K-pop, they call themselves - no one argues, the director of KPOP demon hunters mentions many times that SES is the model for all the Kpop bands in the film. Eugene hard carried SES, she was the Beyonce of Destiny’s Child)
You all know how Eugene (the mother of K-pop herself, got picked up by the CEO of SM at the GPO parking lot, right? <— one of the holy grounds of k-pop, definitely deserves a sign. Oh, she was attending JFK at the time btw.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene\_(actress)
Perry, taught everything YG knew about music when they were starting off. YG is one of the core production companies of K-pop, their contribution to Kpop is immense. Guam’s own Perry taught them music and what’s cool. He basically laid down the founding principles and core values of YG music (and K pop therein).
YG is the company that produces Black Pink, 2NE1, and … as a korean guy in my forties, it is my obligation to ask you. Do you know Psy?
Anyway, Perry came to Korea worked as head producer to YG when they were starting off in the 90’s teached how to produce and make cool music. Legendary YG producers - Teddy, GD and YG himself, all students of master Perry. So influential google AI mentions him when I look up Kpop producers this day. YG loved him so much they released 2 albums for this foreigner. Basically you had a Guam boy releasing albums in Korea back in the day when K-pop was brewing)
Last but not least, Sean, rapper of YG’s fist ever rap group Jinusesn, also grew up in Guam. Can’t be bothered looking up which schools he attended, but lived here til he was 16.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jinusean
You see all the Korean tourists who’re all really geeky and somehow seem lost? They’re our cool ones. Thanks Guam for teaching Korea whats cool and birthing K-pop! It’s hellah expensive compared to back home and you have your glitches and storms but I love raising my kids here. I really can see and claim that Guam is the birthplace of K Pop. It’s not the scenery it’s the people. (Many of which are d****, like everywhere else, but the general vibe : awesome!
I’ve lived in Seoul, NY, London and also Germany, it’s pretty rough everywhere else, especially now. Brace ourselves, help each other out as you do well and I’m confident you’ll do fine.
Anyone with knowabouts to Perry? Someone please find him and contact YG Entertainment - maybe we can get a K-pop concert here or something ^^;.
Closing with awesome old school Kpop music video shot in Guam by Septaiji.
https://youtu.be/6ZTFcnRS3b0?is=swyC\_VtpR\_hcpTSU
Weird clouds for the weird weather
This storm seems to have come out of nowhere. Check out these circular formations just over us at 15:30 or so the 19th. Three of them in what appears to be an almost perfect equilateral triangle. Second pic included for overall view.
Amazon can go fck themselves
Amazon is killing our planet. Amazon is killing their employees. And I am aware that, and unfortunately, I am still bound to them because I need things that they have that I cannot get on this island. .So because I still use them, I'm going to share my hack so that other people on island can use that hack and screw them as much as they can. Until they catch on.
If you are a prime member and you want something check if it's available on subscribe and save. If it is subscribe and save you shouldn't pay shipping. The downside is you won't be able to order it immediately. But the upside is when it is ready to ship, you will only be charged for the item.
I have done this with countless things. And when I received the item, I canceled the subscription or I push the next delivery out 6 months later.
It doesn't work for every item, but for the ones that it does, you save a lot on shipping.
Good luck and I hope this helps.
Power outages!!!
Im tired of losing power at least once a week like wtf!
I get home from work and tired i just wanna cook dinner and relax guess what my power is off! Like what is going on with guam. I was in a middle of a essay for college too ruined my groove smh.
GPA - Potential Rotating Outages
GPA's Potential Rotating Power Outage Schedule
Haven't seen this posted here yet so sharing the page for it. In case anyone needs or is curious which hour(s) their area may fall under if a rotating outage is needed
Power outage…….
Is anyone’s power out rn? @dededo,
Also if it is power outages how come public don’t get notified, Guam power needs to step up, at least tell your fckn customer there’s power outage, imagine having a patient at home that’s connected to machine rn. This is ridiculous
JTWC Warning #2 Analysis – Tropical Cyclone 17W
JTWC Warning #2 Analysis – Tropical Cyclone 17W
Converted to mph and miles
Summary
17W is about 192 miles east-northeast of Chuuk.
It has accelerated from about 2 mph to 6 mph, now moving west-northwest.
Significant wave height remains around 12 feet.
Steering is becoming better established, and the system should begin moving north-northwest more decisively.
The forecast now explicitly says 17W will cross the Northern Mariana Islands in about 3–4 days.
Rapid intensification is expected between roughly 36–84 hours.
JTWC expects it to cross the Northern Marianas at over 115 mph.
RI probabilities are very high: 75–90% from COAMPS-TC and over 75% from Google DeepMind.
Importantly, the previous extreme model outliers have moved toward the main model cluster.
However, ensemble members still extend as far south as Rota.
Forecast Change Score: 7/10
Warning #2 is a meaningful change from #1.
The biggest development isn’t necessarily a dramatic southward shift. It’s that the forecast has evolved from:
“Pass about 161 miles north of Saipan near Pagan”
to:
“Cross over the Northern Mariana Islands.”
That increases concern for the northern CNMI.
At the same time, model agreement has actually improved.
What Changed From Warning #1?
Track
Warning #1:
Forecast passage about 161 miles north of Saipan
Near Pagan
HAFS-A was a major southern outlier between Rota and Tinian
ECMWF was the major northern outlier
Warning #2:
Forecast explicitly says cross the Northern Mariana Islands
HAFS-A has moved north toward the consensus
ECMWF has moved south toward the consensus
Most deterministic models are now much more tightly grouped
Ensemble members still extend southward to Rota
That’s actually an important improvement in forecast consistency.
Instead of two models pulling in opposite directions, the main guidance is beginning to converge.
Steering Pattern
The steering setup has also changed somewhat from Warning #1.
Next 12–36 hours
A near-equatorial ridge southeast of 17W should push it north-northwest.
Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge north-northwest of the storm retreats.
That gives 17W an opportunity to gain latitude.
In simple terms:
The storm should start climbing north.
Around 60–72 hours
Then another subtropical ridge builds westward from the northeast.
That ridge should prevent 17W from simply continuing north.
Instead, it should bend the track slightly back toward the west.
So the expected motion is approximately:
WNW now → NNW → slightly more westward/NW approaching the Marianas
That final westward bend is important because it brings the cyclone across the Northern Mariana Islands.
Rapid Intensification Risk
This is probably the biggest concern in Warning #2.
JTWC now has high confidence in the intensity forecast through Day 3.
For roughly the next 36 hours, strengthening should remain relatively slow.
Then conditions improve significantly:
Wind shear decreases
Dry air becomes less influential
Poleward outflow improves
Ocean temperatures remain extremely warm
JTWC explicitly forecasts rapid intensification between 36 and 84 hours.
And the model probabilities are unusually strong:
COAMPS-TC: 75–90% chance of RI
Google DeepMind: greater than 75% chance of RI
JTWC expects the storm to cross the Northern Marianas with winds exceeding:
115 mph
That’s already Category 3-equivalent intensity.
And because RI can sometimes outperform forecasts—as we just saw with Bavi—I’d pay close attention to subsequent intensity forecasts.
Model Guidance
There’s actually some encouraging news here for the populated southern Marianas.
HAFS-A
Yesterday this was the concerning model.
It showed a track:
between Tinian and Rota.
Now HAFS-A has moved toward the main model grouping.
That’s significant.
ECMWF
ECMWF was previously the northernmost model, taking 17W almost straight north initially.
It has also moved toward the consensus.
So the two major outliers from Warning #1 have converged toward the middle.
Ensembles
This is where uncertainty remains.
GEFS, ECENS and ECMWF-AIFS ensemble systems still contain individual members reaching as far south as Rota.
That does NOT mean the ensemble forecast is for Rota.
It means a southern solution remains meteorologically possible.
Island Risk Assessment
My interpretation of Warning #2, not official JTWC probabilities.
Guam
Direct eyewall risk: Very Low
Estimated direct-hit chance: 2–5%
Overall impact risk: Low to Moderate
Trend from Warning #1: Slightly lower
Assessment: The deterministic model consensus has improved well north of Guam. Some ensemble members extend toward Rota, but Guam remains substantially south of the main forecast corridor.
Rota
Direct eyewall risk: Low
Estimated direct-hit chance: 5–10%
Overall impact risk: Moderate
Trend from Warning #1: About the same
Assessment: Rota remains on the extreme southern side of the ensemble envelope. A direct hit is not currently favored, but the fact that some ensemble members reach Rota means it is too early to dismiss.
Tinian
Direct eyewall risk: Low to Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 8–15%
Overall impact risk: Moderate
Trend from Warning #1: About the same
Assessment: Tinian remains south of the main guidance cluster, although a significant southward forecast error could bring the system closer.
Saipan
Direct eyewall risk: Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 15–25%
Overall impact risk: Moderate to High
Trend from Warning #1: Slightly higher
Assessment: Saipan is closer to the developing forecast corridor. The official track still appears north of Saipan, but the wording has changed from passing well north to crossing the Northern Marianas.
Pagan
Direct eyewall risk: High
Estimated direct-hit chance: 35–50%
Overall impact risk: Very High
Trend from Warning #1: Remains highest
Assessment: Pagan and the surrounding northern islands remain closest to the expected track and currently face the greatest risk of the core passing nearby.
Agrihan / Alamagan
Direct eyewall risk: Moderate to High
Overall impact risk: High to Very High
Assessment: The developing Northern Marianas track puts these islands within the area that deserves particularly close monitoring.
What I’ll Watch for in Warning #3
There are three things that matter most now.
First: Does the model consensus shift north or south?
The convergence of HAFS-A and ECMWF is a good sign for forecast confidence. If the entire cluster begins moving south, however, Saipan/Tinian risk would increase quickly.
Second: Where does the westward bend begin?
If the subtropical ridge builds earlier or stronger than expected, 17W could turn west sooner and potentially track farther south through the Marianas.
If it gains more latitude before that happens, the threat remains focused farther north.
Third: Does RI begin earlier than expected?
The RI probabilities are already very high. If satellite observations start showing rapid organization during the next 24–36 hours, the intensity forecast could rise considerably.
Bottom Line
Warning #2 strengthens the case for a significant typhoon affecting the Northern Mariana Islands in roughly 3–4 days.
The good news for Guam, Rota and Tinian is that the concerning southern HAFS-A outlier has moved back toward the main model cluster.
The concerning development is intensity: JTWC now has high confidence through Day 3, with a 75–90% RI signal and a forecast of 115+ mph winds when 17W crosses the Northern Marianas.
Right now, Pagan and the northern CNMI are the primary concern, with Saipan next. Guam remains well south of the most likely track.
The track is becoming clearer—but with medium track confidence, a somewhat uncertain initial position, and 3–4 days remaining, it’s still too early to consider the southern Marianas completely out of play.
JTWC Warning #1 Analysis – Tropical Cyclone 17W
JTWC Warning #1 Analysis – Tropical Cyclone 17W
Converted to mph and miles
Summary
17W is about 207 miles east of Chuuk.
It has been moving west very slowly at only about 2 mph.
Maximum significant wave height is about 12 feet.
Over the next 24 hours, it should begin moving north-northwest while steering remains weak.
After about 24–36 hours, a subtropical ridge is expected to build, becoming the main steering influence and pushing 17W northwest faster.
Current JTWC forecast takes the center about 161 miles north of Saipan, near Pagan, in roughly 4 days.
Rapid intensification is forecast to begin around Day 2.
JTWC forecasts an increase from roughly 60 mph to 135 mph between Days 2–4.
Some models are stronger, with HWRF reaching around 150 mph.
Most models pass well north of Saipan, but HAFS-A is a significant southern outlier and takes 17W between Tinian and Rota.
JTWC has medium confidence in both track and intensity.
Track and Steering
The steering situation is currently fairly weak, which explains why 17W is crawling along at only about 2 mph.
During the next 24 hours, JTWC expects a slow north-northwest drift.
Then something important happens.
The upper-level low north of the system should weaken, allowing a subtropical ridge to build behind it and extend southwestward.
Once that ridge becomes established, 17W should move along its southwestern edge.
In simple terms:
Slow NNW movement now → ridge builds → faster NW movement after about 36 hours
That’s currently the main reason most guidance keeps 17W north of Saipan.
Intensity
This part deserves attention.
For the first 24 hours, strengthening should be relatively slow because 17W is:
Asymmetric
Experiencing northeasterly wind shear
Still organizing
After that, conditions improve.
Around Day 2, JTWC expects:
Wind shear to decrease
The circulation to become more symmetrical
Outflow to improve substantially
Sea temperatures above 86°F
That’s when JTWC expects rapid intensification.
The forecast calls for winds to increase from approximately:
60 mph → 135 mph in about 48 hours
That’s a major increase.
And HWRF is even stronger, reaching approximately 150 mph.
So although 17W isn’t particularly impressive right now, it could look dramatically different in 2–4 days.
Model Guidance
This is probably the most important part of Warning #1 for the Marianas.
Most models
Most guidance takes 17W well north of Saipan, with the current JTWC forecast passing about 161 miles north of Saipan near Pagan.
ECMWF
ECMWF is the northernmost solution.
It takes 17W almost straight north during the next 36 hours before turning northwest.
That would be a much better scenario for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
HAFS-A
HAFS-A is the big southern outlier.
It takes 17W considerably farther south, between Tinian and Rota.
That would obviously be a much more serious scenario for the populated Marianas.
For now, however, JTWC emphasizes that all the other models are considerably farther north.
JTWC’s official track is closer to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and ECMWF-AIFS, rather than the southern HAFS-A solution.
Island Risk Assessment
Early personal assessment based on Warning #1, not official probabilities. Four days out, these percentages are especially uncertain.
Guam
Direct eyewall risk: Very Low
Estimated direct-hit chance: 3–7%
Overall impact risk: Low to Moderate
Assessment: The current consensus strongly favors a track north of Guam. A direct Guam hit would require a substantial southward forecast change. It’s worth monitoring because we’re still around four days from the Marianas passage.
Rota
Direct eyewall risk: Low
Estimated direct-hit chance: 5–10%
Overall impact risk: Moderate
Assessment: Most guidance passes well north, but the HAFS-A southern solution would bring the cyclone much closer to Rota. For now that appears to be an outlier rather than the consensus.
Tinian
Direct eyewall risk: Low to Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 8–15%
Overall impact risk: Moderate
Assessment: Tinian is closer to the southern edge of the plausible track scenarios. The current JTWC forecast is still well north, but the southern HAFS-A solution is worth watching.
Saipan
Direct eyewall risk: Low to Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: 10–20%
Overall impact risk: Moderate to High
Assessment: Saipan is the closest major populated island to the current forecast path, but the official track still passes roughly 161 miles north. A southward adjustment would increase Saipan’s risk quickly.
Pagan
Direct eyewall risk: High
Overall impact risk: High to Very High
Assessment: Pagan is currently closest to JTWC’s forecast path. If the track remains near the present forecast, the northern CNMI would face the greatest threat.
The Two Things I’d Watch Closely
First is the subtropical ridge.
If it develops as forecast and gets control of 17W’s steering, the storm should turn northwest and remain well north of the populated southern Marianas.
If the ridge develops differently or the weak steering period lasts longer, the track could change substantially.
Second is HAFS-A.
One southern model by itself isn’t enough to conclude the track will shift south. But if other models begin migrating toward HAFS-A over the next couple of runs, that would be much more significant.
Bottom Line
Warning #1 currently favors a northern CNMI storm, not a Guam/Rota/Tinian/Saipan direct hit.
The official forecast takes 17W approximately 161 miles north of Saipan near Pagan, and most models are north of Saipan.
However, we’re still about four days away, track confidence is only medium, steering is currently weak, and HAFS-A provides a much farther-south scenario between Tinian and Rota.
The intensity forecast is also noteworthy: rapid intensification is expected around Days 2–4, potentially turning 17W into a major typhoon before it reaches the Mariana region.
For Warning #2, the most important question will be whether HAFS-A remains an isolated southern outlier or whether the rest of the model package starts shifting south toward it.
Fuck DMV and their processing for DL
I cannot be the only sharing how bad the processing is and disgusted at how the staff (specially the two clowns that meet people at the lines) here at DMV is. I feel sorry for the people of Guam and how they have to put up with this for how long? And how much longer? I have sat here before for at least 4 hours and got nothing done.
I've also spoken to an old lady here who got their license close to 5pm after sitting at DMV since 10am. Abhorrent and shameful how this is the norm. We went at 0730 only to get ticket to come back at 2pm. And when we askes in line was told (very rudely by the clowns) there's no guarantee even if we came back at the time of the ticket. Then what's the point!? What a stupid system they have here. Put an online system for appointments. There's gotta be smarter people that can come up of a better system for processing DL applications than the idiots running the show there and treating people at the door.
If one of the clowns and here reading this post. It doesn't make you good at what you do when you treat people like shit at the door. Makes you look like a moron trying to overcompensate becuse we can tell how inconsistent you guys are at what you say out there. Your staff know and the people at the line knows and talks about it.
Power out, again...
Power out in Chalan Pago, again this time no heads up. It just went out at 5:30 pm Sunday and now today at 4:55 pm...wish they would provide a heads up.