r/mltraders

Image 1 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
Image 2 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
Image 3 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
Image 4 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
Image 5 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
Image 6 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
Image 7 — 🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?
▲ 15 r/mltraders+5 crossposts

🐐 $NVDA reports Wed May 20. Revenue ran $46B → $57B → $68B last 3 quarters. SPY is at 77 on 1W, NVDA at 53. Beat the $78B guide or miss?

TL;DR: NVIDIA is now a $5.7 TRILLION company — the most valuable on Earth, bigger than Apple by $1.8T. It's 8.59% of SPY and 8.92% of QQQ. Reports Q1 FY27 Wednesday May 20 AMC. Self-guided $78B ±2%. Last 3 quarters: $46.74B → $57.01B → $68.10B. The 1W Neural Engine is green and aligned with QQQ, NDX, and SPY — bullish setup into the print. The 1D is at score 61 (above the 60 threshold = system-valid). Wednesday resets the entire AI tape.

How big is NVIDIA in 2026?

NVIDIA's market cap as of May 2026: $5.709 trillion. That makes it the most valuable company in the world.

Some receipts:

  • Bigger than Apple alone by $1.8 trillion
  • Bigger than Microsoft alone by $2.5 trillion
  • Bigger than the entire UK stock market (FTSE 100 ≈ $2.5T)
  • ~8.6% of the S&P 500 by weight (and ~12% of the Nasdaq-100)
  • Wall Street's stretch target: $20 trillion

This is not a "big company." This is the biggest single concentration of market cap in history.

What % of SPY, QQQ, and NDX is NVIDIA?

Index NVDA Weight
SPY (S&P 500) 8.59%
QQQ (Nasdaq-100) 8.92%
NDX (Nasdaq-100 Index) ~12%

For every 10% move in NVDA, SPY moves ~0.86% from NVDA's direct contribution alone. QQQ moves ~0.9%. The correlated AI infrastructure complex (storage, optical, cooling, power) multiplies that.

When NVDA reports, the indices reprice the same night.

Who are the top 3 companies after NVIDIA?

Rank Company Market Cap
🥇 1 NVIDIA $5.7T
🥈 2 Alphabet (GOOGL) $4.2T
🥉 3 Apple (AAPL) $3.9T
4 Microsoft (MSFT) $3.2T
5 Amazon (AMZN) $2.8T

In SPY weight: NVDA + AAPL + MSFT = ~20% of the entire S&P 500. Three stocks. One-fifth of the index.

When does NVDA report Q1 FY27 earnings?

Wednesday May 20, 2026, after market close. Press release ~4:20 PM ET. Call 5:00 PM ET.

Metric Consensus NVDA's Guide
Revenue $78.8B $78B ±2%
EPS $1.77

Guide range: $76.4B (low) to $79.6B (high).

  • Below $76.4B = miss
  • Above $79.6B = beat
  • Above $82B = blow-out + likely raise

Revenue trajectory last 4 quarters:

Quarter Revenue YoY
Q2 FY26 $46.74B +122%
Q3 FY26 $57.01B +94%
Q4 FY26 $68.10B +73%
Q1 FY27 (guide) $78.0B ±2% ~+69%

Q2 forward guide matters more than the Q1 print. Q1 is rearview. Q2 sets the next 90 days of hyperscaler capex confirmation.

Why one earnings print moves the entire market

Three reasons:

  1. Direct index math. 8.59% of SPY + 8.92% of QQQ + ~12% of NDX. The math is the math.
  2. AI capex signal. Hyperscalers committed ~$700B in 2026 AI capex. NVDA's print tells you if they actually spend it. Every AI infrastructure ticker (storage, optical, cooling, power, REITs) is downstream.
  3. Earnings concentration. NVDA was the single largest contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth in 2025-2026.

Wednesday is the upstream signal that resets every downstream play.

📍 Full AI infra map — community-powered: Originally 43 tickers across 9 layers. The Herd doubled it in the comments — TSMC, ASML, Cadence, Synopsys, CoreWeave, Nebius, NextEra, MP Materials, and more. Now 100 tickers across 13 sectors. Pre-loaded in every member's dashboard, one-click clone to TradingView. When NVDA prints Wednesday, you already have the downstream playbook on your screen.

What is Heikin-Ashi and why 1W

Heikin-Ashi smooths price noise. Each bar averages OHLC with the previous bar. Cleaner trends. Fewer false signals.

Our Neural Engine double-smooths it. Another layer of chop stripped.

Why 1W:

  • Filters intraday noise
  • Removes overnight gaps
  • Shows institutional positioning
  • Highest signal-to-noise of any timeframe

Look at the QQQ, NDX, SPY 1W charts below. No candles. Just Neural Heikin-Ashi. The trend reads cleanly because the noise is gone.

That's the chart institutions are reading. The 5-min is what blows up retail accounts.

What the system sees right now

$NVDA 1W (the structure that matters):

  • 🟢 Neural Engine green · Above Both MAs · Max Power 100%
  • Bullish Base · Pressure minimal
  • Structure intact, regime bullish

$NVDA 1D:

  • Score: 61 (above the 60 threshold = system-valid long)
  • Trend label: "Losing Grip — Protect Gains" ⚠️
  • Recent cluster: S78 → S77 → S80 → S69

The 1D is saying "don't chase the breakout candle." The 1W is saying "structure intact, regime bullish." Both can be true at once.

The indices alongside NVDA (the bull case)

Asset 1W Neural State
NVDA 🟢 Bullish Above Both MAs, Max Power 100%
NDX 🟢 Golden Cross ⭐ Bullish Base
QQQ 🟢 Golden Cross ⭐ Bullish Base
SPY 🟢 New Strong Run ✅ Score 77

The alignment is bullish. SPY in Strong Run. QQQ + NDX in Golden Cross. NVDA 1W Neural green and above both MAs.

The 1W tape says NVDA may be bullish for this week heading into Wednesday's print. The 1D is just saying don't lever up into the print itself.

The Wednesday playbook

  • The weekly regime is bullish. That's the baseline read.
  • Daily is extended. Don't add aggressively pre-print.
  • Q2 forward guide matters more than the Q1 number. Q1 is rearview. Q2 sets the next 90 days.
  • Read the Thursday weekly close on the 1W Heikin-Ashi. Green close = trend confirms. Red close = AI tape recalibrating.
  • Post-print: use the 100-ticker AI infra map to find the downstream plays that actually move. The big returns this cycle have been one layer below NVDA (storage, optical, cooling, power, AI cloud).

Simple.

🎁 7-day trial, no card

  • 🐐 Trinity stack — GOAT + Neural (double-smoothed Heikin-Ashi) + MCC
  • 🗺️ AI Infrastructure watchlist — 100 tickers, 13 sectors, pre-loaded in your dashboard (one-click TradingView clone)
  • 📡 Sunday Bulls + Bears scanner email (next one Sunday 7PM)
  • 🔍 Pine Screener access
  • 🤖 AI Quant — paste any chart, get the verdict
  • 💬 Full rebuilt Discord (live AMC reaction calls)
  • 📓 Journal + Academy + weekly market report

Trial activates today. NVDA reports in 5 days. You see the system live on the print, the reaction, and every downstream AI play.

Walk away after 7 days. Nothing to cancel.

 Start the free 7-day trial, no card required

🐐 NVDA Friday close — pick your camp:

🐂 Bulls — $260+ blow-out
🐻 Bears — sub-$200 fade
🤷 Sidelines — sitting it out

Drop your camp + your exact Friday close number 👇
Closest call earns the 🐐 of the week.

⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice.

u/Beyos — 6 days ago

I built a 6-Agent LLM Pipeline to filter global macro noise and track physical commodity supply drains. Here is the architecture.

I’ve been trying to build an automated macro research desk for my own trading, specifically focused on precious metals and global fiat flows.

The core problem I hit immediately: standard "AI wrappers" or single-prompt LLMs are terrible at this. They hallucinate, get distracted by retail sentiment (e.g., Reddit pump-and-dumps), or mistake standard market volatility for structural shifts.

To solve the noise problem, I built Alicanto, a multi-agent reasoning engine that forces data through a strict hierarchy before it ever reaches a conclusion.

Here is the pipeline architecture. I’d love some feedback on where this logic might break down at scale.

1. Data Ingestion & The "Consent Wall" The system continuously sweeps Google News, institutional RSS feeds, and dark pool channels. I’m using a custom Jina + Trafilatura waterfall to handle extraction and bypass cloud-server consent blocks, standardizing the text payloads to ~800 characters to cut out journalistic fluff.

2. The 6-Analyst Swarm Pipeline Instead of dumping data into one massive prompt, the engine routes events through a strict chain of command:

  • The 4 Junior Desks (GPT-4o-Mini): These are isolated agents programmed with specific personas (Finance, Physical Supply, Geopolitics, Alternative Data). Their only job is to extract hard numbers and structural events. If an article is just punditry or lacks hard metrics, they kill it immediately.
  • The Senior Strategist (GPT-4o-Mini): This agent acts as a semantic shield. It reviews the Juniors' output against a strict ruleset to actively filter out retail/local noise (e.g., "Ignore a supply drain if it's just a local coin shop; focus only on COMEX/LBMA/SGE").
  • The Executive (Groq 70B): If an event survives the first two tiers, it hits a high-speed Llama 3.3 70B model. This model checks for final "opinion traps" and synthesizes the data into a structured Executive Brief and Trade Desk Verdict.

3. The RAG "Correction Ledger" Traditional fine-tuning is too slow for evolving macro conditions. Instead, I built a vector-based feedback loop. If the Swarm makes a logic error (e.g., misinterpreting a tariff announcement), I issue a text correction. The system vectorizes that correction (text-embedding-3-small) and stores it in an SQLite ledger. Before the Junior desks process new data, they run a similarity search against the ledger to inject past corrections into their active prompt.

4. The Output The pipeline generates live macro matrices, calculates real-time arbitrage spreads (COMEX vs. Shanghai), and pushes "DEFCON" alerts for severe physical premiums.

The Ask: I am currently looking for 10 quants or developers to test the live Telegram bot and Web Terminal.

I don't need marketing advice; I need you to try and break the swarm logic. I want to know where the noise filter fails, if the RAG ledger is efficient enough, or if this architecture is just over-engineered for what it does.

If you are interested in stress-testing the architecture, drop a comment or DM me, and I will generate a free root-access key for the terminal.

(Link to the architecture dashboard in the comments so I don't trigger the auto-mod).

u/this_is_chetan — 8 days ago

Im a discretionary swing trader, but want to make an algorithm for backtest

I have 200 trades backtested on a discretionary basis, but i want to make an algorithm for i can backtest more trades with more data and paires without emotions and human errors. Idk if I should do it or stay discretionary, I have positive edge on my strategy, and 3 years of experience on trading. but I think Im going to start learning code to be able to have more metrics and in the future maybe automate the strategy.

Someone who can give me an advise on the subject, python language. I have very low programing skills, I would start practically from zero. But I think its worth it because at the end of the day a good strategy is based on data and metrics, so I can have more with an algorithm removing discretion.

reddit.com
u/TenaxFi — 9 days ago
▲ 70 r/mltraders+3 crossposts

Been running my algo bot for a while and this is the total P&L(58K), any suggestions?

Even though there are more losses at the end of the day I'm in green. I'm thinking of reducing losses by adding some new strategy. Any suggestions from your experience?

u/helloimhello6688 — 12 days ago

Why my backtests kept lying to me (and what I did about it)

I've spent the last year building a live algorithmic trading system from scratch on Alpaca — momentum rotation on ETFs, RSI mean-reversion swing trades, proper risk management (1% per trade, ATR-based stops, daily circuit breaker, drawdown kill switch).

The thing that humbled me most wasn't the coding. It was running what looked like a genuinely strong backtest, going live, and watching it fall apart within weeks.

After digging into why, I realised almost everything I'd read about backtesting was quietly skipping the hard parts:

  • In-sample optimisation is basically cheating. If you tune your RSI period and stop-loss on the same data you're testing on, you're not finding a strategy — you're finding the parameters that fit that specific historical period. It will not repeat.
  • Most retail backtesting tools don't model slippage honestly. Assuming you fill at the close price on a thinly traded ETF is fantasy.
  • Survivorship bias is invisible until you look for it. If your universe is "current S&P 500 constituents" you're testing on a list of companies that already survived.

What actually helped was walk-forward testing — train on one window, test on the next, roll forward, repeat. It produces worse-looking results but the live performance gap shrinks dramatically.

Curious how others here handle this. Are you using QuantConnect, TradingView Pine, something custom? And do your backtests actually predict your live performance or is there always a big gap?

reddit.com
u/TopTimPlayz — 9 days ago

TradingView Premium FREE — 100% Working Version 🚀

A fully tested and working Premium build sourced from a private GitHub repository.
The project is actively maintained and updated weekly by the author to stay compatible with the latest TradingView updates.

No restrictions. No locked features. Everything works out of the box.

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Download: TradingView Premium FREE [Windows]
Archive Password: github

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Quick Access

Download: TradingView Premium FREE [Windows]
Archive Password: github

macOS users → Activation Guide

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Source: TradingView Premium FREE — 100% Working Version 🚀
Stay tuned for updates

reddit.com
u/dtrendz — 9 days ago
▲ 8 r/mltraders+1 crossposts

Is anyone getting big into agentic feature/model experimentation? Automating these pipelines is unlocking whole new worlds.

Been building an autonomous energy-demand forecasting research harness and curious if anyone here has gone deep on agentic/automated feature experimentation.

Current setup:
- NSW electricity demand forecasting
- weather + historical demand features
- rolling walk-forward validation
- Modal running large parallel experiment sweeps
- leaderboard + automatic scoring against fixed baselines

Right now the system is good at:
- model/config sweeps
- backtesting
- evaluation
- calibration

But I’m now moving toward automated feature generation/proposal.

The rough idea:
- LLM proposes feature sets/interactions/lags/transforms
- deterministic harness builds + evaluates them
- only improvements get promoted into the leaderboard

Examples:
- temp × humidity interactions
- lag structures
- rolling weather anomalies
- calendar effects
- weather regime features
- demand ramp features

I’m trying to avoid:
- leakage
- overfitting the leaderboard
- combinatorial garbage feature spam
- “LLM generated alpha soup”

Curious if anyone here has:
- done autonomous feature research seriously
- used agents for forecasting/model discovery
- built good constraints/DSLs around feature generation
- thoughts on how much value is actually there vs brute force + human intuition

Feels like forecasting is unusually well-suited to autonomous experimentation because the scoring loop is so clean.

reddit.com
u/jajohn99 — 14 days ago