r/peloton

In the write-up today on the Athletic about the TT yesterday, the author states that Jonas might have lost 30-60 second due to having to wear the KOTM jersey. That seems high, no?

**"**With aerodynamics crucial, especially on a long and pancake flat coastal course, the difference has been calculated as potentially between 30 seconds and a minute."

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7291876/2026/05/19/giro-ditalia-stage-10-ganna-vingegaard/

2026 Giro d'Italia Stage 12: Imperia > Novi Ligure

Stage info

Date	Stage	Route	Length	Type	Altitude	Finish	Time
Thu. 21/05	12	Imperia > Novi Ligure	175 km	Easy	3005m	Sloping Up	12:15-13:15 CET

Climbs

Location	Cat	Km	Length	Avg
Colle Giovo	3	km 107.5	11.5 kms	4.2 %
Bric Berton	3	km 123.0	5.5 kms	6.0 %

Sprints

Location	Km
Stella	km 100.7
Red Bull km	km 161.6

Weather

Sunny and warm, around 25°C.

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Stage breakdown

With Stage 12, we’re bidding farewell to the Apennines and heading up north towards the Po Plains, the Alps now looming in the distance. It’s a likely sprint stage but some climbs along the way could get in the way of sprinters… and past the midway point in the race surprises tend to happen more often.

As INRNG’s Giro Guide put it, this stage looks like a mirrored version of Milan-Sanremo. We’re starting in Imperia, a city along the Ligurian riviera located to the west of MSR’s iconic three capes. There’s a bit of rolling terrain at first- that could help a breakaway surge clear- but apart from that the first 100 kms are pretty much completely flat, nearly completely along the Via Aurelia, the trunk highway connecting Rome with the French border at Ventimiglia, offering stunning views of the Ligurian sea.

Not long after Savona, the race will turn inlands and start crossing the mountain range separating the narrow coastline from the Po plains. Technically the riders are still in the Apennines, but we’re just a few kms from the Colle di Cadibona, the pass that traditionally marks the border with the Alps. The peloton will tackle two cat 3 climbs: first off, the Colle Giovo, which includes an intermediate sprint along its gentle slopes; further on, the Bric Berton will mark the entrance into Piedmont. After a brief, rolling section at altitude, the peloton will descend towards the plains. The last 30 kms take place on flat terrain towards Novi Ligure (which, despite the name, is in Piedmont and not Liguria); there are a couple of very brief climbs, one of which hosts the Red Bull km at 13 kms to go. The stage wraps up with a 3-kms long straight line to the finish.

Novi is a very important city in Italian cycling history: two of the biggest all-time athletes, Costante Girardengo and Fausto Coppi, were based in the city, which in the years before WWII hosted the most important cycling academy in the country. Nowadays, you can visit a museum dedicated to both Girardengo and Coppi. The Giro, however, might be visiting for a different reason… as the finish line is located a couple of kms outside Novi, right in front of the headquarters of the eponymous company, a major player in the national sweets manufacturing scene which produces the official Giro d’Italia chocolate. At least it’s an improvement from today’s toilet paper connection…

With all this in mind, here are our predictions for tomorrow's stage:

★★★ Magnier

★★ Andresen, Milan

★ Aular, Narváez, Turner / breakaway

Rider discussion

This could be the first mass sprint since the Giro moved to Italy (not counting the Naples mess). It's been quite a while since we've seen the sprinters go at it, so the form is a bit of an unknown. Paul Magnier is our top pick merely because he was the best in the opening stages, but there is an argument that Thomas Lund Andresen could do better with tomorrow's hilly course, and Jonathan Milan is perhaps more experienced in three-weeks races.

It's not a guaranteed sprint, however- the profile is not too different from stage 4, where Movistar rode hard to "shed" the pure sprinters for Aular. The Spanish team is fiercely fighting for a stage win so we might see them going at it tomorrow as well, but the stage is overall easier- the climbs are not as hard, and they're further away from the finish, so that strategy might not be as effective. Still, if they succeed, we could have a reduced bunch sprint in which case Orluis Aular, Ben Turner or- again!- Jhonatan Narváez would be the men to beat.

Last but not least, we cannot count a breakaway out- there have been upset on similar stages in the past, as the race goes on, everyone is more fatigued and it's harder to keep a grip on the race- but given that the sprinters don't have many chances left in the race, we assume that the sprint trains will prevent a strong breakaway to form.

That's it from us, what are your opinions and predictions?

2026 Giro d'Italia Stage 11: Porcari > Chiavari

Stage info

Date	Stage	Route	Length	Type	Altitude	Finish	Time
Wed. 20/05	11	Porcari (Paper District) > Chiavari	195 km	Medium	3367m	Flat	12:30-17:15 CET

Climbs

Location	Cat	Km	Length	Avg
Passo del Termine	3	km 115.9	7.4 kms	5.0 %
Colle di Guaitarola	2	km 135.7	9.9 kms	6.2 %
Colla dei Scioli	3	km 167.1	5.7 kms	6.4 %

Sprints

Location	Km
Luni	km 68.0
Red Bull km	km 182.4

Weather

Between 15°C and 20°C. Mostly sunny.

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Stage breakdown

The halfway point of the 2026 Giro is a hilly stage between Tuscany and Liguria. This Giro, so far, has seen some brilliant stage design alternating with some very questionable ones. This stage should have both: it looks like it has the potential to be a very entertaining race, but the course is going to be quite tricky, especially if the roads are still wet from the bad weather from the past few days.

The stage begins from Porcari or, to be more specific, from an industrial district famous for the production of tissue paper. It’s the Giro equivalent to the Vuelta Carrefour starts- on their way to the départ réel, the peloton will circle around the large plant of Regina, one of Italy’s best known brands of toilet paper and a prominent Giro sponsor. There is nothing to note for the first 100 kms in the race except for the first intermediate sprint in Luni, which marks the regional border between Tuscany and Liguria.

With around 100 kms to go, the peloton will get to La Spezia, birthplace of Alessandro Petacchi. The city’s name translates to “the spice” and quite aptly it’s where the stage will start to have some flavour: the rest of the day is completely hilly, there is not an inch of flat terrain. There are constant ups and downs, and since inner Liguria is very sparsely populated, most of the stage will take place on narrow secondary roads full of bends. It’s the kind of terrain that should make for an enticing race but also one where accidents might happen, the riders will need to be extra careful especially if the roads are wet.

In the first part of this finale, the peloton will travel through the famous Cinque Terre, the coastal region widely considered to be among Italy’s most beautiful places; cycling fans might remember a fierce ITT battle on these roads between Danilo Di Luca and Denis Menchov at the 2009 Giro (which, as you may guess, was not the cleanest of races). The first KOM to Passo del Termine (cat 3) is followed by a descent to pretty Levanto, from where the cat 2 Colle di Guaitarola begins. After a rolling section at altitude, the peloton will again descend towards the coastline only to head back inland for the last two climbs- another cat 3 to Colla dei Scioli followed by the uncategorized climb to the day’s Red Bull km.

That summit comes with 13 kms to go, and the subsequent descent ends aroudn 6 kms later. The last kms towards Chiavari are mostly flat but they’re nevertheless quite hectic with several sharp turns before the home straight on the town’s coastal promenade.

With all this in mind, here are our predictions for tomorrow's stage:

★★★ Breakaway (Ciccone, Leknessund, López, Milesi, Narváez, Poels, Rolland, Scaroni, Silva)

★★ same names as above but late attack

★ reduced bunch sprint

Rider discussion

Tomorrow should be a breakaway stage, it's the kind of terrain where making up ground is very hard and we don't think that any team will be interested in keeping the breakaway on a leash.

Since this stage is not too different from stage 8, we believe that some of the riders who went on the attack like Saturday might try something today as well- we thought of winner Jhonatan Narváez but also his valiant opponent Andreas Leknessund. Other attackers from that day include Brieuc Rolland and Wout Poels. The Movistar duo of Lorenzo Milesi and Juanpe López has shown interesting form so far, we can see them trying again tomorrow... and so does another pair of teammates, Astana's Christian Scaroni and Guillermo Thomas Silva). Giulio Ciccone might be aiming for harder stages, but if he wants to claim the KOM jersey, he could give tomorrow a go.

If a weaker breakaway goes, all the above names could also try to win the stage from a late attack, the late descent and the hectic urban course is a dangerous combo that could play to an attacker's advantage.

Should it come down to a reduced bunch sprint from a reduced peloton, Ciccone, Narváez and Silva could be the men to watch.

That's it from us, what are your opinions and predictions?

Good morning,

He's my idea for an alpine race inspired by la Flèche Wallone. I was imagining that the organisers of the Tour of the Alps could make it happen, and it would be at a similar time of the year to the stage race (in the Ardennes block, before or after).

Meran/Merano to Imst (Hoch-Imst). 206 km with 2810 m of climbing, as the profile shows.

For context, la Flèche Wallone is 200 km with 2970 m of climbing.

The start of the race is gently uphill, and builds fatigue. The 59 km to Malles Venosta - Mals are a dragging false flat but with a few steeper sections.

Then comes Reschenpass, 7.7 km at 5.3%. No steep gradients but these first 70 km could be important for the formation of a rouleur-powered breakaway.

I imagine that Andreas Leknessund would do better in the breakaway here than in Flèche.

After the plateau and the crossing into Austria it starts to get nervous. At Nauders, instead of going down Reschenstrasse, the riders cut across to Norbertshöhe and drop down to the valley of the Inn. This descent is technical, with ~15 hairpins in 5 km.

The next section of 7 km is on Via Engiadina in Switzerland, the third country on route.

They cross back into Austria and the next 75 km are down the Inn. The roads are quite straightforward, but do have some modest winding down the valley, beside the stunning blue water.

After 177 km of racing the real action starts. It's been on main roads up till this point, but now the riders go up to the Meiminger Plateau (10 km at 4.7%, summitted with 21 km remaining). On this climb the pace can really be pushed, and it is set up for the final. The descent is moderately technical, with a few sweeping hairpins but not like Martinsbrücker straße earlier.

The peloton then streams down 12 km of flat roads where dropped riders will find it hard to regain contact, and they reach Imst.

Then they take a left turn and the road to Hoch-Imst rises steeply above them.

While the Mur de Huy is 1.4 km at 9.1%, maximum 20%, Hoch-Imst is much harder, as it 2 km at 12%, maximum 26%. Instead of the s-bend, there are 7 different switchbacks meaning that it could be much more aggressive. Riders can easily lose sight of each other, so the dynamic is different.

Unlike Flèche, the riders do not take on Hoch-Imst before the final, so many will underestimate it. Of course, riders targeting it properly will have ridden recons. But, before the final climb, they've barely even ridden on double digit gradients at all. La Flèche Wallone tests who can still put out the power on 19% after having done it several times already. This tests who can do it after 204 km of big ring riding. Many riders will find their legs locking up.

Altitude is also a factor, though not huge. Reschenpass rises to 1504 m, which is significant.

The women's race is different. Instead of starting in Merano, it starts it Bludenz, so it is entirely in Austria. It is a similar dynamic to Milano-Sanremo and Genova-Sanremo.

Relatively speaking, it is actually harder, as Arlberg Höhe is 11.2 km at 6.3% — much harder than Reschenpass. It does feature some extended steep sections so Hoch-Imst is less of a surprise. Altitude wise, the women's race peaks at 1793 m — 289 m higher than the men's race. With 2640 m of climbing over 146 km, it is closer in cumulative climbing to Liège-Bastogne-Liège Femmes.

The final 72 km of both races is the same. Arlberg pass is 106 km from the finish so will not have an impact on the outcome of the race but it will be important for the breakaway.

I imagine that if Demi Vollering tried her long range move here it'd not have ended up well.

The name is a bit inaccurate as neither race is entirely in Tyrol but I couldn't think of anything else.

2026 Giro d'Italia Stage 10:

Stage info

Date	Stage	Route	Length	Type	Altitude	Finish	Time
Tue. 19/05	10	Viareggio > Massa	42 km	ITT	104m	Flat	13:15-17:15 CET

Weather

Around 15°C. Rainy for the early starters, it should get better as the afternoon goes on. Weak tailwind/sidewind on the coastal portion of the stage.

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Stage breakdown

After the second rest day, the Giro resumes with an ITT- the only one in the race this year, but it’s gonna be a big stage with likely GC implications.

For the second year in a row, RCS has chosen to place the main stage against the clock in Tuscany. Forget gravel roads and rolling hills full of Chianti grapes, however- we will be in the northwestern part of the country, an area known as Versilia. While the Alpi Apuane will be looming in the distance, the course will develop nearly entirely by the coastline, passing through several renowned seaside resorts. It’s the same area where the Tirreno-Adriatico opening TT is held… only this one is nearly four times as long! At 42 kms, it’s the longest ITT in the race since the 60-kms long Prosecco stage in 2015.

The first 15 kms, up until the first intermediate timing spot, are slightly more technical- the peloton will have to navigate the urban roads around the pineta di Levante, a large forest along the coast to the south of the city; this section includes a few 90° bend and a U-turn.

From the intermediate timing spot onwards, it’s all straight for 20 kms as the race keeps to the coastal promenade. In the last 7 kms the road briefly ventures inland to reach another U-turn (where the third intermediate timing spot is found), before going back towards the coastline. There is one last 90° bend immediately before the finish line.

With all this in mind, here are our predictions for tomorrow's stage:

★★★ Ganna

★★ Vingegaard

★ Arensman, Bjerg, Larsen, Milesi, Segaert, Sheffield, Sobrero

Rider discussion

Filippo Ganna is the top ITT specialist in the race and thus he is the overwhelming favourite. Jonas Vingegaard has had some excellent TT performances in the past and we expect him to do well, especially relative to his GC rivals; however, the course seems to be too flat for too long to play to his advantage.

Behind them, there is a number of good TTers who could do well. Among the GC contenders, Thymen Arensman has a good chance to gain time on his rivals; both him and teammate Magnus Sheffield did very well in the opening Tirreno ITT, which had a similar course (but was much shorter). Other than Vingegaard, the Danish fans can hope for a good performance by both Mikkel Bjerg and Niklas Larsen. Matteo Sobrero seems to be here mostly in a lieutenant capacity so he may not go all-in, but he's definitely worth mentioning; you could say the same for Victor Campenaerts... but the Belgian hasn't had a good ITT result in quite a while, so he's even more of an underdog pick at the moment. Perhaps his fellow countryman Alec Segaert has a better chance. Last but not least, Lorenzo Milesi has had some good TT results in the past and he's been outstanding throughout the first week, he seems to be in great form.

That's it from us, what are your opinions and predictions?