Gedanken experiment against Determinism
So, I’m always getting comments that I’m attacking the free will side or I just don’t get libertarianism or compatibilism. The reality is I’m not really impressed with any argument for Free Will. They all seem heavily biased, based on emotions rather than honesty. But that doesn’t mean I’m deterministic. I like to play both sides because in my world view, neither side as a clear understanding. So just because I’m curious, this post is solely for the various types of Determinism out there. So I would really be interested in their response to this gedanken experiment.
Now we all know the LaPlace’s Demon from the clockwork Universe. A demon that knows the position of every atom and speed can predict with 100% past present and future. Basically, rewind the Universe to the beginning and know the laws governing cause and effect and you’ll get the same outcome every time.
But in real life there’s no Demons or gods so it’s not a great gedanken experiment. But what we do have, in this reality, is AI. And in a couple of short years we’ll have AGI. And after that let’s just call it Artificial God like Intelligence. AI has been around your whole life, it has your DNA and the memory to record every event that’s ever happened to you. With its intelligence, it knows all and see alls. So imagine you get selected to test And when that happens, imagine your selected to be the first to ask God AI any question you want. So you start off asking this, “What Star Wars movie—“
And before you can finish, God AI says, “from best to worst your order is Empire Strikes Back with Last Jedi at the bottom.” (God I hate Last Jedi, I do, I just really really do…)
Then you ask, “Where did I….”
“You lost your flash drive for work between your couch cushion. You’ve also forgotten The password which is PA$$WORD!234.”
At every question God AI has a definitive answer, it can read your brain waves, has access to every part of your life, has your DNA, understands you better than you can ever understand yourself. it knows all and sees all.
So now you ask it a very simple question, “When I drive home from here, I can go left or right out of the parking lot. It’s the same distance, takes the same amount of time, basically identical. Which one will I take?”
God AI can only answer 1 of two ways. The first is if God AI gives you a 100% deterministic outcome and says, “You’ll go Left”, and you then go right, you’ve then violated an immutable law governing cause and effect and put into motion an event that could cause the collapse of reality.
Or, God AI instead gives you an answer of probability, “Based on your past, as well as your psychological disposition, 67% you’ll go left, 33% you’ll go right.”
So from a Determinist perspective, both outcomes are problematic. Either God AI can’t give an exact answer like LaPlace’s Demon because it’s incomplete, it doesn’t have ALL the information it needs so it can’t give a determined absolute answer, or the 2nd which is reality, the universe itself allows for multiple outcomes, none of which violate any chain of cause and effect. Numerous outcomes are allowed for one single event because the Universe, near as I can tell, has no say about the human condition and could care less. Achieve the singularity or blow ourselves up in a Nuclear Armageddon, and everything in between is allowed.
This isn’t an argument for Free Will, although, it’s not quite indeterminism either because the test subject is experiencing volition. Either way, hard determinism, or any other form has a tough time justifying an unbreakable singular chain of cause and effect, or even absolute certainty. There’s nothing Determining which way you’ll go.
So I’m curious about the determinist view. Is it a valid gedanken experiment, is it wrong and why, where are the problems and what are my unchallenged assumptions I’ve made.
Let me know
Thank you for taking the time to read and respond.