r/shroomstocks

Are psychedelics the next big thing?

Psychedelics include the drugs LSD, magic mushrooms, peyote, and often ketamine and MDMA too, among others. And some of these drugs have a history of spiritual practice spanning millennia. Then many of these drugs became synonymous with hippies and 60s and 70s counterculture.  But now, psychedelics have new cheerleaders: tech bros and CEOs. So why the rebrand?

To get into it all, Brittany is joined by Maxim Tvorun-Dunn, PhD candidate at the University of Tokyo, and Emma Goldberg, business reporter at the New York Times, to discuss what it means that these drugs are getting championed – and sometimes financially backed – by the tech elite, and how might that affect our culture’s relationship with psychedelics.

Good? Bad? Indifferent?

This thread is for questions and general discussion relating to the psychedelics industry. The weekly thread will refresh every Monday morning before stock market open.

By Kamal Choudhury and Christy Santhosh

May 18, 20266:10 AM EDT

May 18 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's executive order to accelerate psychedelic drug development has raised hopes among companies developing the drugs that it could help attract more capital, but researchers cautioned that new treatments are still a long way off.

Nine executives and investors interviewed by Reuters said the order could shorten administrative timelines and improve coordination between ​the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Drug Enforcement Administration.

To all the long-time contributors to this group - I hope this adds some value to your journey.

*Not financial advice. Do your own research.*

-----

**Current price: ~$11 (up 17% today post-earnings) | 52-week low: $2.25**

An expectation of a $35-$45 share price 12 months post commercialization seems very reasonable.

-----

## POINT 1: COMP360 MAKES CLINICS MORE MONEY PER HOUR THAN SPRAVATO

Spravato’s model: patients come in **21 times over 6 months**, each visit is ~2 hours, clinics bill a flat rate per session. Revenue per clinic hour is roughly **$650–$690**.

COMP360’s model: patients come in **1–2 times total**, each session is 6–8 hours, clinics bill **by the hour** under newly secured psychedelic-specific CPT billing codes. Revenue per clinic hour is roughly **$1,600–$9,000** depending on drug pricing.

That’s 2.5x to 13x more revenue per hour of chair time.

And it gets better — because Spravato requires maintenance dosing indefinitely to sustain the effect. COMP360 showed durable response through 26 weeks after just 1–2 doses. So clinics aren’t just earning more per hour — they’re freeing up capacity to take on new patients instead of running the same ones through 21-session marathons.

**The financial picture per patient episode:**

	COMP360	Spravato
Sessions	1–2	21
Hours per session	6–8	~2
Total clinic hours	~8–16	~42
Estimated total revenue	~$26K–$74K	~$27K–$29K
Revenue per clinic hour	~$1,600–$9,000	~$650–$690

*Drug pricing is estimated (no official WAC disclosed yet). COMP360 WAC assumed $25K–$35K per dose based on analyst benchmarks.*

The 7,500 clinics already certified to give Spravato are CMPS’s launch targets. They have an immediate economic incentive to convert referrals.

-----

## POINT 2: THE ADMINISTRATIVE BURDEN DIFFERENCE IS MASSIVE

This one doesn’t get enough attention.

Every Spravato session requires: vital signs, dissociation assessment, 2-hour monitored observation, discharge documentation — times 21 sessions per patient. Indefinitely for maintenance. Payers require re-authorization every 4–12 weeks. The admin overhead per patient per year is estimated at **$3,000–$6,600** in staff time.

COMP360: 1–2 doses, 1–2 authorization cycles, 1–2 REMS documentation events. Admin cost per patient estimated at **$500–$1,000**.

For a clinic treating 100 TRD patients:

- Spravato admin overhead: ~$300K–$660K/year
- COMP360 admin overhead: ~$50K–$100K/year
- **Savings: ~$200K–$560K per 100 patients**

That’s before accounting for the higher hourly billing rates.

Also worth noting: payers are increasingly pushing back on indefinite Spravato maintenance dosing and imposing session caps. COMP360’s limited-dose model is structurally insulated from that risk.

-----

## POINT 3: THE COMMERCIAL RAMP SHOULD BE FASTER THAN SPRAVATO’S

Spravato launched in 2019 into nothing:

- Zero pre-trained sites
- No state rescheduling prep
- No psychedelic billing codes
- COVID hit the next year

COMP360 launches into:

- **7,500 Spravato-certified clinics** already trained, already credentialed, already seeing TRD patients
- **~90% of the US population** lives in states that have committed to reschedule COMP360 within 30 days of FDA + DEA approval — 2 years of lobbying already done
- **CPT3 hourly billing codes** already secured before approval
- **Payer discussions already underway** per the Q1 2026 call
- **1–2 month FDA review window** via the Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher (CNPV) — unprecedented speed

Illustrative revenue ramp (assumes $30K WAC per dose, 2 doses avg per patient):

Year	Active Sites	Patients Treated	Revenue Estimate
Year 1 (2027, partial)	375 (5% of base)	~3,000	~$180M–$270M
Year 2 (2028)	750 (10%)	~11,250	~$675M–$900M
Year 3 (2029)	1,500 (20%)	~30,000	~$1.5B–$2.0B

For context: GlobalData modeled COMP360 at $879M by 2031 — and that was built before both Phase III trials were positive, before the CNPV was awarded, and before 90% state rescheduling coverage was achieved. The number is probably low.

Spravato comparison: took 4–5 years to approach $1B in annual revenue, with none of the structural tailwinds COMP360 has.

-----

## ADDITIONAL THINGS THAT BUILD THE CASE

**PTSD pipeline (13 million patients)**
Same drug, same infrastructure, new indication. Phase 2b/3 trial underway with VA collaboration sites. Phase 2 data already showed a 29.5-point CAPS-5 reduction at Week 12 from a single 25mg dose. If PTSD works, the addressable market is 3.25x larger than TRD. Approval probably 2029–2030 but the optionality is real.

**3-for-3 in clinical trials**
Phase 2b + COMP005 + COMP006 — all positive in controlled trials. Spravato had a mixed trial history before approval. Jefferies assigns 75–85% probability of FDA approval. TD Cowen described “strong conviction” it gets approved and has “robust market uptake.”

**White House executive order**
An executive order explicitly prioritizing timely rescheduling of FDA-approved psychedelic treatments was issued in April 2026. Direct tailwind for DEA rescheduling speed.

**M&A optionality**
BioPharma Dive reported AbbVie M&A speculation in July 2025. A company with two positive Phase III trials, first-mover status in a new drug class, and a ~$1.5B market cap is a reasonable acquisition target. Any deal would price well above current analyst targets.

**$466M cash, no dilution needed**
They don’t need to raise money through launch and into 2028. A lot of pre-commercial biotechs raise dilutive rounds right before launch. CMPS doesn’t have to.

**First classic psychedelic ever approved in the US**
If approved, COMP360 is the first psilocybin-based medicine in American history. First-mover advantage in a new drug class is durable — Spravato still has 100% of the psychedelic TRD market years later.

-----

## RISKS

- **Payer coverage in Year 1** — formulary decisions not finalized; broad commercial coverage isn’t guaranteed at launch
- **CPT3 → Category I conversion** — until codes upgrade, payers have more discretion to deny; could take 1–2 years post-launch
- **REMS requirements** — not yet finalized; an onerous REMS could slow site certification
- **COMP006 Part B data (early Q3 2026)** — final 26-week durability data needed to complete NDA; if something goes sideways here the timeline moves
- **Pricing pressure** — payers will negotiate rebates; net pricing could come in below WAC estimates
- **No revenue yet** — this is still a pre-commercial biotech; there is real execution risk

-----

## WHERE DOES THE STOCK GO?

Current price: ~$11. Shares outstanding: ~135M. Market cap: ~$1.5B.

Scenario	12-Month Post-Commercialization Price	Probability	What Has to Go Right
Bear	$12–$18	~20%	Approval but slow payer coverage, REMS friction
Base	$25–$40	~45%	On-track ramp, CPT3 functioning, PTSD optionality priced in
Bull	$45–$70	~25%	Fast ramp, broad payer coverage, PTSD data positive
M&A	$70–$120	~10%	Acquisition at premium
**Probability-weighted midpoint**	**~$32–$42**		~3x–4x from today

Analyst consensus: 11 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell. Range: $8–$70. Median: ~$18–$25 *before* approval — which would expand significantly post-approval.

-----

## SUMMARY

Compass Pathways has a psilocybin drug that worked in every trial they ran, a business model that pays clinics more money per hour than the only drug it’s competing with, 7,500 ready sites, a 90% state rescheduling runway, a 1–2 month FDA review voucher, $466M in cash, and a PTSD pipeline that’s 3x the TRD market. The stock is at $11 with a probability-weighted analyst target of $32–$42 twelve months after commercialization. The question isn’t really whether the drug works — it’s whether the payer and execution machinery moves fast enough. Based on how much work has already been done on that front, there’s a reasonable case it does.

-----

*Sources: COMPASS Pathways Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 13, 2026), COMP005/006 Phase III data, Jefferies/Stifel/Morgan Stanley/LifeSci analyst notes, GlobalData COMP360 market forecast, Morningstar/Google Finance market data, Spravato prescribing information (Janssen, 2025), BioPharma Dive, Clinical Trials Arena.*

*Again — not financial advice. I hold a position. Do your own research.*