r/shroomstocks

Reposted on linkedin by CMPS

Question for the well-informed folks here: CMPS is a British company, and is there any rumblings about COMP360 potentially behind offered in non U.S. countries?

I know their commercial focus is in the U.S. right now, but if the drug is so successful, is there any merit to this company having a head start to, say, the British market, or otherwise in Europe / developed nations?

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This is likely swimming upstream but hopefully retail can come together on this absurdly low transaction price.

https://preview.redd.it/q30g28mgqrjh1.png?width=1401&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae9a87452abed044a348d230d436636f89ed9795

This morning strengthened the pre-Phase III HELP thesis on two fronts.

Recent ownership filings show meaningful institutional accumulation occurring behind the scenes, including Adage Capital crossing the 5% threshold with 3.29 million shares, alongside substantial positions from sophisticated healthcare and hedge-fund investors such as OrbiMed, Venrock, Millennium and Eventide. This helps explain some of the recent share-price appreciation as institutional investors increasingly underwrite the probability of a successful APPROACH readout rather than simply speculative retail momentum.

Today’s financial update was equally constructive. APPROACH enrollment is complete, Q4 2026 topline guidance remains unchanged, EMBRACE and EXTEND continue advancing, and the completed DDI study further supports HLP003’s commercial positioning as an adjunct to existing antidepressants. Helus ended June with $166.4 million in cash following its $50 million institutional financing, substantially reducing pre-readout financing risk.

Taken together, there is no evident deterioration in the clinical thesis, timeline or financial position. Instead, institutional ownership is becoming more visible, the balance sheet is well funded through the pivotal catalyst, and management continues executing toward the Q4 Phase III readout.

Let’s fucking go!

Compass has posted roughly 100 U.S. Therapeutic Sales Specialist roles ahead of the COMP360 launch.

Rather than guessing peak sales, here’s a simplified bottom-up model based on what those 100 reps could actually produce.

First, the revenue assumption

Assume the total cost to the payer is ~$7,000–10,000 per treatment, including the drug, preparation, 6–8 hour administration/monitoring, facility costs and follow-up.

For this model, assume only ~$3,500 of that is net drug revenue to CMPS per patient. The rest goes to clinics/providers and other costs.

Assume a deliberately slow launch

Rather than assuming every sales rep immediately opens one productive account per month, assume each of the ~100 reps averages only: ~0.5 new productive centers per month

That would roughly mean:

Month 1: 50 active centers
Month 3: 150
Month 6: 300
Month 12: 600

Then assume utilization also starts slowly as reimbursement, referrals and clinic workflows get established.

An established center might eventually reach 6–8 patients/month, but during Year 1 the average newly activated center could be much lower.

A hypothetical patient ramp:

Month 1: 300 patients → $1.1M
Month 2: 600 → $2.1M
Month 3: 1,000 → $3.5M
Month 4: 1,500 → $5.3M
Month 5: 2,000 → $7.0M
Month 6: 2,500 → $8.8M

Month 7: 3,000 → $10.5M
Month 8: 3,500 → $12.3M
Month 9: 4,000 → $14.0M
Month 10: 4,500 → $15.8M
Month 11: 5,500 → $19.3M
Month 12: 7,000 → $24.5M

Year 1 total: ~35,400 patients

At $3,500 net revenue per patient:

~$124M first-year COMP360 revenue

What’s interesting is that this doesn’t require a particularly strong launch.

By Month 12:

~600 productive centers
~7,000 monthly patients

= roughly 12 patients/center/month or about 2.7 patients per clinic per week.

And because most of those centers weren’t operating for the full year, Year 1 revenue substantially understates the exit run rate.

Month 12 revenue of ~$24.5M implies:

~$294M annualized revenue entering Year 2

So even a relatively slow first-year launch could look something like:

Year 1: ~$125M revenue

Year 2: ~$350–500M

Year 3: ~$750M–$1B+

The two metrics I’m keen to watch after launch are:

1. Productive centers activated per sales rep per month
2. Patients treated per productive center per month

With ~100 reps, even averaging only one new productive account every two months per rep builds a network of ~600 centers in the first year.

If those centers eventually treat just 2–3 COMP360 patients per week, you can get surprisingly close to a ~$125M first-year launch while setting up a much larger Year 2.

Not a forecast — just a deliberately slower bottom-up scenario based on the commercial organization Compass appears to be building.