u/Alarmed-Albatross-32

I did some digging over the past couple of days and came to the conclusion that the market is completely mispricing Fluence ($FLNC) right now.

If you’ve been following the AI data center boom, you know Bloom Energy ($BE) has drawn every ounce of attention over the past several months. It’s run up has been massive - it now sits at a $78.5B market cap because everyone is starved for power solutions. And while I get the thesis, if you actually line up Bloom's numbers next to Fluence Energy, the valuation gap makes absolutely zero sense.

Look at the math for this year:

• Bloom Energy: Expecting around $3.2B in revenue. Market cap is roughly $78.5B. That means it's trading at over 24.5x forward sales.
• Fluence Energy: Guiding for $3.2B to $3.6B. Market cap is only $3.82B. It’s trading at a ridiculous 1.1x forward sales.

Fluence is pulling in the exact same - if not more - top-line revenue than Bloom, yet it trades at less than one-twentieth of the price.

The usual pushback on Fluence is that they’re just a lower-margin utility battery company, while Bloom lets data centers bypass the grid entirely with on-site fuel cells. Fluence destroyed that narrative in their latest earnings report, revealing that they’ve already locked in master supply agreements with two major hyperscalers, and their total backlog now sits at a massive $5.6B.

Bloom is priced beyond absolute perfection right now. Meanwhile, Fluence is getting that same big tech validation, holding a record backlog, and generating massive revenue - all while trading at an absurd discount.

So, why the absurd discount?

Retail traders saw headlines about a shelf registration and a 20M share offering following their ER and immediately freaked out about dilution. But if you actually read the filings, it’s pure noise.

The shelf was just a routine administrative update - it's the same reason APP tanked post-earnings and then recovered. Retail does not understand that companies are required to re-file shelf offerings every three years. Fluence filed their last automatic shelf registration back in August 2023. They let it sit entirely untouched for nearly three years. They didn't dump any shares on the market, nor did they use it to dilute retail.

More importantly, the recent offering was 100% secondary. Controlling insiders like Siemens were just trimming their stakes. Fluence itself didn’t sell a single new share, didn't receive a dime of cash, and the total share count didn't change at all.

The dilution is exactly zero.

It's just a classic case of the market panicking over short-term technical selling pressure. Now that this massive block that was priced at $21 USD has been absorbed by the market (appears this happened around mid-day Friday based on the price action), the anchor holding this stock down is officially gone.

Feels like an absolute steal at these levels. My personal PTs are $30 in the next 2-3 weeks and $50 by the end of summer once the market properly re-rates it. DYODD. NFA.

Here's something most people missed unless they watch commodities closely: silver got halted twice today - something that has literally never happened in the history of the COMEX (commodity exchange).

There is a chance we’re finally seeing silver break away from gold, mostly because it’s being dragged up by the surging cost of copper and the reality of industrial demand. We’ve known for years that a physical shortage was coming, and today felt like the moment the paper market finally hit a wall. Silver's use cases are far, far superior to gold, and particularly relevant to the market/time we're in right now with AI and energy running as hot as they are. You literally cannot have these worlds without silver.

As data centers proliferate, the demand for silver in high-end semiconductors, liquid cooling systems (due to its thermal conductivity), and power distribution has surged. Between the EU’s 2026 solar mandates and the global push for EV charging grids, the industrial floor for silver has moved significantly higher.

We are currently in the sixth consecutive year of a structural silver deficit. Mining output simply isn't keeping up with the trend. You can manipulate the currency and print as much money as you want, but you can’t manifest physical metal out of thin air. When the exchange pauses trading like it did today, it’s usually because they’re realizing the price on the screen doesn't match the actual finite supply available.

Something worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks IMO.

Admittedly new to NOK for what it's doing these days. I honestly wasn't aware of how they pivoted and grew the business. It's a killer comeback story.

That said, I would love to hear some price targets for end of 2026/end of 2027, as well as some reasoning or DD to support.