r/Nok

https://www.sdxcentral.com/news/cisco-agents-run-450-more-traffic-than-same-task-in-human-hands/

https://www.cisco.com/c/dam/en/us/solutions/collateral/artificial-intelligence/mass-scale-infrastructure/ai-network-traffic-report.pdf

"The implications are significant, as consumer traffic is the primary contributor to overall internet and service provider network traffic. Without the impact of AI or agentic AI, network traffic is expected to grow 4x over the period 2025-2035, driven by the adoption of digital services. However, with the adoption of AI and agentic AI across many of those digital services, traffic is projected to grow 6.6x from today’s levels, or a 63% additional increment compared with the non-AI-impacted projection. A relevant portion of that traffic will be AI inference, which is expected to account for 25% of total traffic by 2035."

Seems bullish for Nokia as capacity is added across ISP's, enterprises, data centers, hyperscalers, etc.

I wonder what type of bottlenecks we'll see on the network side and imagine Tier 1 ISP's will need to add capacity to peering links/cloud connects.. Not to mention there will likely be more and more large private wave infrastructure being built.

FWIW I work in telecom and while I don't have any insider knowledge on what is being ordered or capacity adds, I can imagine this happening.

Yahoo article mentions the following catalysts for a stock re-rate following its July 23 Q2 report:

1. Nvidia Orders: First hard look at how the $1B partnership is materializing in the actual order books.

2. San Jose Scale: Tracking whether the massive new InP manufacturing facility ramp is on schedule.

3. Optical Inflection: Delivering on the massive hyperscaler-driven demand for low-latency fiber transport.

4. AI-RAN Timeline: Providing definitive forward commercialization guidance for 2026/2027.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prediction-nok-stock-could-parabolic-181000276.html

Finnish company Nokia's 5G technology is being used to guide drones operated by Ukraine's armed forces. Several NATO countries, including the United States, also want to acquire it.

Domestic and international foreign and security policy sources told Iltalehti about the matter.

"Nokia is able to extend the range of its 5G signal so that connection to the drone is maintained deep in enemy territory. The technology has been proven effective in Ukraine. The performance Nokia has shown there has caught many people's attention," one source said.

He estimated that "deals are definitely coming."

The Russians have had difficulty jamming the Nokia 5G signal used by Ukraine's drone units.

According to the sources, Ukrainians use tactical-level 5G networks developed by Nokia on the front line. The sources emphasize that it is precisely the performance proven in the defensive war against Russia that has caught the interest of NATO allies in the products of Nokia's defense unit.

Invitation to Ankara

The NATO defense alliance has invited Nokia to take part in the defense industry forum being held in Ankara next Tuesday. According to the sources, Nokia can expect new orders.

For example, the United States is interested in working with Nokia "in every possible way," because the Americans need reliable military and civilian networks in various parts of the world.

Nokia is therefore likely to receive orders beyond those related to drone technology.

The US Department of War (Pentagon) has classified the Chinese network company Huawei as a company backed by China's People's Liberation Army. The US armed forces are looking to Nokia's network technology as a counterweight to Huawei's networks.

Together with the Americans

In May, Nokia and the American defense company Lockheed Martin announced that they had developed a new modular 5G network specifically for the needs of the United States and its allies.

The development work was carried out according to Pentagon standards.

"The performance is designed to provide secure and fault-tolerant communication wherever it is needed," the companies emphasized.

The sources estimate that the US armed forces and the defense forces of several different European NATO countries will start using networks developed by Nokia for their communications in Europe.

Nokia also manufactures internal networks for military bases of various branches of the armed forces.

In Finland, Nokia is part of an industrial consortium developing new drone-defense capability for the Finnish Border Guard.

*****

Translated from an article in Finnish newspaper Iltalehti

I’m 21 and got into Nokia about 2 months ago..

I love the stock so much I’m willing to buy 5000 shares EOY if it’s still below $17 a share.

Everyday I track the option flow on Nokia, and long story short this stock will mostly likely go to $11, maybe even just under $10.50, and then reverse all the way up to atleast $22-$23 (in my opinion).

People have poured millions into long dated calls and I think they know something…..right now it looks foggy but I believe this is just to shake out the weak hands. This stock is going places, especially up.

I find it very strange that even though as the stock plummets, the OI from the huge call volumes haven’t really budged….it makes me think something is coming for sure. All this good news + nvidia investing + insiders buying + massive amounts of long calls being bought in big chunks (hitting strike like 20, 25, and 30), it lets you know that long term this stock is going to be a banger. I hope this helped some of you hold your position.

Btw we are gonna crush earnings..

Jefferies has raised its price target for Nokia from €10.70 to €13.80 (≈ $15.7) and maintained its "Buy" rating. The network equipment provider's collaboration with hyperscalers is increasing across its optics portfolio, with the acceleration in the IP networking sector currently being driven by winning switch orders from a hyperscaler, Janardan Menon wrote on Monday evening. This order momentum should lead to higher growth and stronger margin increases in 2027 and 2028 than previously forecast, which should also support further share price gains. Menon raised his estimates, now expecting earnings per share in 2027 to be 16 percent above the consensus forecast. Source

COMMENT: The target price rise isn't huge but it comes despite Nokia's recent share price drop which could have made the analyst more prudent. The justification is forward-looking, just the way it needs to be when Nokia is first gaining momentum through increased orders but the actual sales will mostly be seen just from 2027 onwards when Nokia's new optical chip facilities in San José and Allentown will have gone online and increased Nokia's to fulfill this backlog.