u/Alppptraum

If anyone doesn’t know Denis: He’s a Ukrainian journalist from Crimea living in Kyiv. He writes and gives interviews mainly in German. I recommend following him on social media for great insights in Ukrainian politics and society.

Translated by ChatGPT, not proofread by me:

# Fedorov’s Risky Gamble

Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has openly turned against President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Now he is suffering his first defeat.

*An analysis by Denis Trubetskoy, Kyiv*
August 19, 2026, 8:10 p.m.

For a month, people in Ukraine have been waiting for the next political move by 35-year-old former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Since his dismissal in mid-July, Fedorov has become a political star in Kyiv. Protests against his replacement, which Zelenskyy has so far barely justified, continued until recently. Meanwhile, Fedorov rose to third place in polls of the most promising candidates for the presidency, should an election ever be held.

At the same time, Fedorov avoided being too specific about his plans in recent weeks. In interviews, he criticized corruption in the country, spoke about his achievements as defense minister, and discussed technological innovations he had introduced in the army. The former minister did not criticize the president and his former patron, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Apparently, Fedorov hoped until the very last moment that Zelenskyy would give in to pressure from the street protests and reinstate him in his old position after all.

In recent days, however, it became increasingly clear that this would not happen. Meanwhile, the chances of designated successor Yevheniy Khmara being confirmed by parliament as the new defense minister on Wednesday grew steadily. Not only did the members of the Verkhovna Rada’s Defense Committee unanimously support Khmara, but so did several opposition MPs.

## Break with Zelenskyy

Fedorov therefore decided to go on the offensive. Late Tuesday evening, he released a nine-minute video that amounted to a definitive break with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his inner circle. Although Zelenskyy’s name is not mentioned in the video, Fedorov speaks in his appeal of a “systemic crisis in the state leadership.” In wartime, no major politician from within Zelenskyy’s system has so clearly turned against the country’s leadership.

Fedorov’s attack went even further. While he touches on the issue of corruption in his video, images of Davyd Arakhamia, the parliamentary leader of the president’s Servant of the People party, appear on screen. Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s former chief of staff, who has since been dismissed amid corruption investigations, can also be seen briefly.

Finally, Fedorov comes to the most controversial part of his video message: the question of possible elections. The 35-year-old did not call for immediate early elections. However, he said the state had to ask itself how it could continue to function if the war lasted for several more years. “Democracy must not be taken hostage by Russia,” Fedorov said. The objective difficulties of holding elections would not automatically mean that they were impossible: “Ukraine has already done several times what the world thought was impossible.”

For Fedorov, this outspoken criticism is risky. After all, he himself played a key role in Zelenskyy’s inner circle from the very beginning of his political career. He is therefore at least partly responsible for many of its shortcomings. At the same time, Fedorov had to signal to his supporters that his political career would not end if Khmara were confirmed by parliament as his successor.

## Fedorov suffers his first defeat quickly

Many of Fedorov’s supporters had been waiting a long time for such a signal. The protests against Fedorov’s dismissal were probably the largest demonstrations in Ukraine since the war began in 2022. For many of his supporters, the former minister embodies the hope of achieving a technological edge in the defensive war against Russia. Fedorov is indeed regarded as one of the most important promoters of Ukraine’s drone industry. He initiated numerous projects, including cooperation with Western partners such as former Google executive and drone entrepreneur Eric Schmidt, while still serving as digital minister.

His tenure as defense minister, however, was also marked by conflict with the army leadership, which rejected some of his reforms, including those concerning procurement. The demonstrations at least achieved the removal not only of Fedorov but also of army commander Oleksandr Syrskyi. Zelenskyy appointed Mykhailo Drapatyi, who was backed by Fedorov, as Syrskyi’s successor.

However, because Zelenskyy had thereby already fulfilled one of the demonstrators’ key demands, he could no longer bring Fedorov back to the Defense Ministry. That would have further undermined the president’s authority. Since Fedorov, for his part, insisted on returning to his old position as defense minister and did not want to take another job, there was nothing left to discuss between him and Zelenskyy.

With his appeal on Tuesday evening and his call for elections, however, Fedorov is likely to have brought only part of his supporters behind him, if that. Most polls show a majority of Ukrainians opposed to holding elections in the middle of a war. Although there is a strong desire to renew the country’s power structures, more than 60 percent of Ukrainians believe elections should not be held until the war is over, according to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). Even among the ranks of the parliamentary opposition, there are serious doubts that elections would be feasible at all. In recent weeks, for example, the capital Kyiv has repeatedly come under ballistic missile attacks. They travel so fast that the air-raid warning sounds only after they have already struck.

There are also legal obstacles. To hold presidential elections, the electoral law would first have to be amended. Under the Constitution, parliamentary elections are completely prohibited during wartime. Amending the Constitution is likewise impossible as long as martial law remains in force.

## Many votes for Khmara

The cross-party skepticism about the feasibility of early elections probably also contributed to Fedorov suffering his first major political defeat just hours after the release of his video message. If Fedorov intended his message to influence the parliamentary vote on his successor, Yevheniy Khmara, and perhaps even prevent it, he failed.

The chances of success for Fedorov were not particularly high anyway. Some MPs did criticize the choice of a military officer like Khmara to head the Defense Ministry, arguing that he was not necessarily the best choice. But Khmara enjoys a good reputation in the army as the former head of Special Operations Unit A of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). He was personally involved in planning Operation Spider’s Web. During the operation, Ukrainian FPV drones destroyed at least ten Russian aircraft, including rare long-range bombers, deep inside Russian territory. Even opposition MPs on the Ukrainian parliament’s Defense Committee ultimately supported Khmara’s candidacy.

Before Fedorov’s attack on Tuesday evening, however, hardly anyone would have expected Khmara to receive the votes of 312 of the roughly 400 members of the Verkhovna Rada. Experienced diplomat Andriy Sybiha, who was confirmed as the new foreign minister on the same day, received only 266 votes in favor. Zelenskyy’s own governing party can usually muster only around 220 votes in parliamentary votes.

Only two MPs voted against Khmara’s candidacy. Twenty of the MPs present did not vote. Even 16 of the 17 MPs from the party of Zelenskyy’s longtime rival Petro Poroshenko ultimately voted for Khmara. Such a clear victory for the new minister is at the same time a poor start for Fedorov’s political career. The long-term political consequences of the latest crisis, however, will primarily have to be borne by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It was his poorly thought-out and inadequately communicated personnel policy that caused the crisis in the first place.