Haven’t had much wage income since 2022 when I left my last real job.
Positions: AMD VOO AMZN GOOGL NVDA AVGO META NBIS MU MSFT TSM RDDT ELF DLO SKHY UBER ORCL CRWV GOOG SNDK DELL Q MGK MRVL QCOM FLGB CEG APP FSLR SNPS
Not using any leverage/options
Getting calls from journos about a rumor that dozens of Burry Substack subscribers are preparing bankruptcy filings after being liquidated on "disastrous" NBIS short positions. Wow. No wonder the stock is ripping. Lots of short covering by people hiring Chapter 11 lawyers. Insane
The Ethereum fee revenue has been declining, which is a very bearish trend for BMNR, a large treasury holder of the eth token.
If eth isn’t going to be valued as a store of value, similar to bitcoin or gold, it can only be valued by the fundamental value. But if the chain fees are declining, the fundamental value looks very weak. This weighs on the eth asset and in turn BMNR as investors and Wall St see that they don’t really get anything by owning the eth token.
This is in addition to the myriad of other problems in the crypto space such as the fact that AI stocks are taking all the speculative liquidity. There’s only so much liquidity to go around at any time and very little has been going into crypto recently.
If you missed the news last week,
I sold my ETH.
For someone who built a career, community, identity, and business around Ethereum, this choice does not come lightly.
The decision to sell deserves a more thorough explanation than the scattered tweets on Twitter.
tl;dr:
The ETH is Money thesis didn't fail… it played out. Ethereum got the ETH price it deserves, and I don’t see ETH being rerated as an asset, higher or lower.
p.s. I am massively bullish Ethereum. I expect Ethereum as a network to do exceptionally well from here on out. I think only a marginal amount of that success will be reflected in ETH.
Here's the article:
ETH Is Money Was Always a Longshot
Money is a coordination game, and coordination is hard.
The Ethereum project itself is a stacked set of coordination challenges across multiple layers, and the ‘ETH is money’ thesis required all of them to succeed, and succeed with confidence.
ETH was going to be money, if and only if, every layer of Ethereum’s techno-social stack did its job better than its competition.
Given the ambitiousness of the Ethereum project, fulfilling the maximally successful version of Ethereum was always a monumental challenge. The Ethereum project, despite its shortcomings, has done incredibly well, and deserves the market cap that it has.
Nonetheless, the window of opportunity for ETH to be ‘rerated’ by the market seems to be closing.
ETH is, to some degree, money. But not the maximally successful version that we collectively sought out to achieve.
Ethereum is a Coordination Game
A turing-complete blockchain is such a powerful idea, that Ethereum’s maximum potential was all of crypto. The whole kit and caboodle.
The only obstacle for Ethereum to achieving 100% dominance of absolutely everything was coordination.
Ethereum leadership needed to be sufficiently decentralized, and governance required ‘rough-consensus’ to create the credible neutrality needed to maximize Ethereum adoption at the highest level.
Ethereum leadership needed to be responsive to market dynamics, and operate like a startup under the existential threat of irrelevancy.
Ethereum L2s needed to be able to move independently of the base layer and make their own market choices, but they also needed to be economically tied and beholden to the broader Ethereum economy and Ethereum brand.
The Ethereum roadmap needed to be executed in a particular order that maximized and preserved Ethereum momentum and market dominance, to quell competition well enough to maximize confidence in Ethereum and ETH.
Mission-critical technology needed to be researched and engineered at a sufficiently fast pace for Ethereum to both prove utility to the outside world and its ability to stay ahead of its competition.
The ‘ETH is Money’ thesis was about producing a financial asset so revolutionary and so powerful that it compelled otherwise indifferent individuals by its unique properties as a superior global store of value. Ethereum’s brand and ETH’s prowess needed to be so strong that boomers would feel not just safe, but compelled to have ETH as a meaningful position in their retirement portfolios, because of how dominant the Ethereum project was.
In order to produce ‘ETH is Money’, everything upstream of ETH needed to work to a very high degree.
Ethereum is not Bitcoin - it chose the hard path. Bitcoin chose to strip everything away from its blockchain to elevate the status of BTC.
Ethereum chose to add everything to its blockchain in order to maximize the utility of its blockspace. Only by doing this in the best possible way, before competitors did, would ETH have achieved its global money status.
We got some of the way there, and Ethereum has achieved the share of its maximum potential market cap that it deserves.
I fear that the window of time for playing this game has come to a close.
It’s Possible The Environment Would Never Allow It
Looking back over the years, I see a significant amount of environmental challenges that Ethereum would have had to overcome.
Say what you will about the difficulty of valuing smart contract chains based on fees and revenue… but fees and revenue are clearly the way that smart contract L1 assets improve their pricing power.
By 2026, we have ample amounts of data that all of these things are intimately correlated: L1 activity, L1 fees, and L1 native-asset price appreciation.
In 2021, ETH dominance occurred when its L1 revenue market share was highest.
In 2024, SOL dominance occurred when its L1 revenue market share grew idiosyncratically against the rest of the industry.
In 2026, NEAR is experiencing a price rerating, happening alongside a fundamental growth in L1 revenue and NEAR burn.
You can also look at assets like BNB and TRX - perhaps the highest cumulative revenue projects of all time. Their price charts look like how I expected ETH’s to look, had it been able to sustain a more dominant market share of L1 fees for longer than just 2022.
u/0xMakesy said it well: https://x.com/0xMakesy/status/2057520999147442397
Ethereum represents the strong version of crypto - crypto for its own sake, self-sustaining and self-perpetuating. DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, - we were rebels building an alternative financial system by the people, for the people, hooking imagination into money.we
There was also the weak version: efficient ledger infrastructure for the backends of financial institutions. The weak version would fuel the strong one, converting demand for internet ledgers into flows pointing inward - toward crypto, toward Ethereum, and concluding at ETH.
Maybe if Ethereum had executed better faster stronger, and if crypto hadn't attracted such a swarm of grifters and extractors, the industry would have earned the clout and respect I always assumed it was owed. But the only stretch where crypto ever held a positive brand with the public ran from late 2020 to early 2022. Outside that narrow window, crypto's reputation has been grifts, scams, get-rich-quick schemes, and being useless to the average person.
ETH is Money Dependent on Strong Crypto
ETH excelled as internet money at the exact moment everyone was forced onto the internet. The world discovered cryptocurrency for the first time, and for that brief window, it was cool.
Money is a coordination game, and a currency's schelling point is held together by belief. In 2021, broad society believed in ETH: it was cool, disruptive, and populist. Bitcoin had the same properties, and held onto them far better than ETH did after 2021.
Which raises an uncomfortable possibility: the strong version of crypto may never have been a stable equilibrium. COVID was an exceptionally distorted era for money and maybe ETH-as-money only held up because of that distortion. If so, ETH being money always depended on the strong version of crypto working better than it ever actually has.
Is Bitcoin money? Are Dollars money? Is Gold money? It doesn’t matter - whatever is money becomes tokenized on Ethereum.
In 2020 Nic Carter argued on Bankless that Stablecoins are likely parasitic to ETH as a native unit to Ethereum. Ethereum had $3B of stablecoins at the time. Today it has $163b - a 54x.
The utility Ethereum provides is helping increase the monetary network of whatever *is* money, which is why the USA is so bullish on crypto for stablecoin adoption. Ethereum is helping the United States maintain dollar hegemony, and it's the explicit policy of the administration to leverage this fact.
The positive spillover effects to ETH as money are clearly not as strong as what the US government sees in Ethereum’s stablecoin ecosystem.
Ethereum is a Giver, not a Taker
At its heart, Ethereum is a giver, not a taker.
It supplies L2s with the world's most secure blockspace, at cost.
It tokenizes the assets of the entire world, at cost.
It secures billions of dollars in DeFi, at cost.
Ethereum takes no markup for anything it does.
This is the nature of open source software, and this is the power of Ethereum. Ethereum supplies its full set of incredibly important values to the world… at cost.
Ethereum is noble. Ethereum is good.
Ethereum is the world’s most successful non-profit.
Naturally, incredible amounts of adoption will happen on Ethereum. It is, and will continue to be, perhaps the most impactful open source software project humanity has ever built, and being ‘non-profit protocol’ is one of its core features.
This is why the path of ETH to become money depended on a sustained very high level of market dominance.
Eventually, fees would drop to zero as blockspace became commoditized. So long as it was Ethereum doing the commoditization and not a competitor, then Ethereum could retain its margins and dominance.
Eventually, the fat protocol thesis would give way to the fat app thesis, and the applications would eat up the rest of the margins. So long as they were Ethereum applications and not competitors, this would be okay for ETH.
It’s hard to square ‘ETH is Money’, with ‘Ethereum is a Giver, not a Taker’. Ethereum architecture is intentionally designed to give everything back to its ecosystem, and only take the minimum necessary to sustain the network.
Architecturally, ETH is not prioritized in Ethereum, and this is a feature, not a bug. ETH becomes money only if Ethereum wins a fight it architecturally declines to fight.
This would have worked, had Ethereum been able to maintain an incredible level of market dominance.
The ETH is Money Thesis Asked a Lot of Ethereum
‘ETH is Money’ required everything to go right for Ethereum. The margin of error was smaller than I originally gave credit for. The momentum Ethereum had in 2021 and 2022 made it seem like ETH is Money was the default path.
In hindsight, Solana’s rise in 2021 alongside a rise in anti-Ethereum sentiment was the first big indicator that the coordination game of Ethereum and ETH was not going according to plan.
The EF needed to be decentralized and allow for alternative power structures to emerge. But it also needed to respond to market forces with the urgency and drive of a start up under existential threat of irrelevance.
L2 teams needed to have the freedom of self-determination, but also needed to do so under the bigger umbrella brand of Ethereum and ETH. Technical synchronous integrations across Ethereum and its L2s needed to be executed much faster.
Smart contract chains are valued by fees, and to escape from that paradigm, Ethereum needed to rewrite the rules by brute force of success.
The ETH is Money Thesis Didn’t Fail
It just also didn’t succeed to its fullest potential.
Ethereum did the noble thing and chose the hardest, most ambitious, most ideologically pure path for its future.
It has achieved some incredible victories, and also failed some challenges as well.
Ethereum has earned the market cap it deserves.
I am incredibly bullish on Ethereum the network and its ecosystem - Ethereum is architecturally designed to maximize success for its apps, L2s, and ecosystems. The fat-app thesis means Ethereum’s apps take all the fees, and the rollup-centric roadmap means that L2s take 97% margins.
As for ETH the asset, I have a harder time seeing ETH being structurally rerated in any direction - up or down.
So the reason I sold my ETH is not because I am bearish ETH, but rather that I think the ‘ETH is Money’ thesis has played out, and I’d like to allocate my capital to other opportunities I see in the market.
Clip: https://x.com/theempirepod/status/2057836660377702739?s=20
Full video (Eth part starts at 36:15): https://x.com/theempirepod/status/2057815796101890425?s=20
Link to video: https://x.com/therollupco/status/2057106567560863916
"L2s were a failed experiment. App chains were a failed experiment outside of Hyperliquid."
Logan Jastremski reveals why he hasn't thought about Ethereum since 2021:
"L2s never made sense. A transaction is just bytes. An L2 compresses 5 bytes to 1 byte. If you want compression, why apply it to a low-throughput chain instead of a high-throughput one?"
"Ethereum is mostly an artifact of people making money in the early days. From an institutional and product use case standpoint, it's largely dead. The most overvalued asset in the world."
Let's face it, Ethereum lacks a ton of fundamental value:
Crypto as a whole is great for some niche use cases like grey and black markets. However, most of the world doesn't run on this and uses fiat banking systems which work great and have lots of protections for example privacy and the ability to rollback transactions when something breaks. DeFi will not take over everything but will solve some niche problems like some types of businesses that banks don't want to support, or for example black market trade across sanctioned countries. These are all niche cases, however. If you are betting on Ethereum or other DeFi taking over the whole global economy, I think you are sorely mistaken.
You have basically been buying into a bubble, it has very little fundamental value relative to the price, and charlatans like Tom Lee who is a part time employee is using his perceived financial and economic guru status to con you into buying BMNR when it's simply a bad investment. My advice is to stick with growth stocks in general. Let the crypto bubble deflate until it's back down to reasonable prices.
My price target: BMNR to $4.50
I don't currently hold either a long or short position.