u/Any-Profession-5509

Location isn't confirmed but most likely it will be a depression(max), i hope it hits South india to give a banger starting for the NE monsoon, if it strengthens then it will move with the upper-level steering and towards bengal, if not which is what i exactly want then tamil nadu or Andhra pradesh.

**SWM
Source: IMD

Source is literally official IMD page with people shouting and glazing our bawander

https://x.com/imd_patna/status/2104188591677264252

Source:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_monsoon?base_time=202608010000&index_type=All%20India%20Rainfall

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202608090000&projection=opencharts_southern_asia&valid_time=202609210000

1st Slide: It shows Long range Ensemble forecast for All India Rainfall and it shows less rainfall in the last months of monsoon, while rain picking up later in November and December overlapping with NE Monsoon season for South India hence as of now entire India will see less rainfall while during NE Monsoon South India will see good rainfall and cyclones possibly.

2nd Slide: each photo shows precipitation anomaly for 1 week starting from 10 August to 14 Sept
to me it looks like NE India and Indo Gangetic plains will see good rain especially NE India while rest of India will see less rainfall.

Winter rains looks normal to good for Himalayan region in India till the end of this year, and good rainfall is forecasted for the Himalayan regions in the upcoming 2 weeks due to monsoon axis shifting towards foothills as there's no low pressure dragging it towards central India. El nino has always been shown to increase winter rains over north india particularly Himalayan region so following the trend Himalayan region might see good rainfall but that's a long stretch since there's still time for core winter months i.e. more than 5 months so take it with a pinch of salt but generally saying good rainfall in winter months and weak rainfall in monsoon except these 2 upcoming weeks.

remember this one fact if there's no system, then monsoon axis will give good rain in ganga plains and Himalayas generally, also Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will see good rain towards leeward side since monsoon flow weakens in absence of system that allows sea breeze interaction and slowing of westerlies allowing evening thunderstorms.

though some good spells are forecasted for western ghats and NW India in upcoming 1 week after that looks tough.

4th Slide: El Nino will peak around Oct-November and it will be the time to see if it can surpass the 2015 strongest el nino record

3rd Slide: IOD will cross +1.0C and will peak around Sep-October which are last months of monsoon, and IOD has been associted with creating northwards travelling BSISO/MISO waves that might give rainfall as it passes through the subcontinent giving good rain especially in western ghats though need to see if the wave train even forms or not in first place

Forecast is based on ECMWF model and views are personal follow IMD for detailed info

Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4

Atp I'm damn sure this is going to be the strongest el Nino in recorded history mark my words, it has already crossed +2.68C and the highest ever recorded was 2015 +3.01C, i remember 2015 was a flood year for south India what do you think will the extreme el Nino feed the NE monsoon to its peak causing another flood year for South? or do you think it will be an exception....for now monsoon deficit + Strong NE monsoon looks very likely if this happens, we will loose from 2 sides.

Btw this means guaranteed drought for North India, acc to IMD definition though sporadic rainfall will happen everywhere across country but that itself cannot refill the deficit.

1st Slide: Super Enno Chart officially crosses + 2.0 C mark and we will see its effect into mid-august and September where monsoon will be hit really hard especially N, NW India, South India, Western Ghats while NE India will get good rains and Central India Might get below-normal rains, this will drive the Monsoon deficit even lower.

2nd Slide: IOD has officially become positive with +0.63 C this enhances the SWM season sadly no one can survive the wraith of El-nino suppression over Indian subcontinent so IOD cannot completely offset el Nino though it might help offset some of it, but long-term predictions still look bleak.

Tougher Times ahead!! those who were saying Indian Monsoon dominated El-nino well it never won

Source: https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/influences/graphs/index.rnino.shtml?index=iod&period=weekly

This is an isolated thunderstorm and you can clearly see where it is dumping rain and where it's not. The boundary between cold and warm front are clearly visible

more read https://www.atoptics.org.uk/halo/dogalt.htm

its not that good but something is better than nothing

this is how a proper sun dog looks like

they form due to ice crystals refracting and reflecting light so most likely previous day thunderstorm pushed some ice crystals into the atmosphere hence the phenomenon.

Current rainfall deficient stands at -16.1 percent I'm expecting it to go around -10% and then again, we might see break phase though it won't be as bad as the earlier ones, so till now good monsoon is what we see only coz we see it improving not that monsoon is actually going well

ask any questions about your area i will reply but slowlyy...

Tamini ghat in Maharashtra recorded 4519 mm
Bhira in Maharashtra recorded 5634 mm

while second spot is between RKM sohra and mawkyrwat and both of them are in Meghalaya.

Meghalaya ko koii rok skta hai kyaaa!!! BIG LEAGUES Confirmed

I added western ghats data coz no one can beat them in SWM season data suggests they received more rainfall than meghalaya in SWM season even more than Meghalaya i.e. rainy months only

anyways half way there since annual rainfall for mawsynram is around 12000mm so yeah let's see currenty hopes are feeble but we can't trust rain Physics models or even Ai models like none of them predicted gujrat deluge of 1000 mm, they literally recorded 3rd highest rainfall in a day ever recorded in the history of Indian metrological department i.e. 1064 mm at Umergam (Gujarat) on 23 july 2026 beating many meghalayan records though the crown is still with Cherrapunji which is also in Meghalaya with 1563 mm/day on 16 June 1995

Sources:
https://www.gujaratweather.com/?page_id=14577

https://www.gujaratweather.com/?page_id=14363

Valsad has recorded its heaviest spell ever while Kaprada has got 1128 mm in last 48 hours and Umbergaon got 1039 mm in last 48 hours. Truly Awe standing rains

All of this is happening due to monsoon trough passing through central India and associated low pressure area which has increased monsoon westerly flow of wind >40 knots these are bashing the western ghats and major convergence formed at central India near Gujarat explaining heavy Rajasthan and Gujrat rains.

North India near West Up and NCR area etc will see on and off sharp showers today already some developments have been seen, so CJP protest mostly won't be affected weather will be chill and cloudy and sometimes rainy.

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Sea breeze has moved in and already we can see lot of pop ups forming today and tmrw seems good for rain though need to see if tmrw turns out to be cloudy then land heating will be minimal thus inhibiting rains

Chennai and nearby areas can see good rains in fact interior areas are seeing popups blooming slowly it will cover other areas, for now sharp isolated showers are possible later in evening these storms might converge with Sea breeze that you can see in this radar pic (a string of blue line or snakelike figure) as it moves into the city

1st slide is SST animation of el nino from the date outlined (You can see a blob oh hot water travelling towards American continents i.e. from left to right)

2nd Slide El-Nino crossing +1.2 C already and now almost certain that it will become Super el nino around Nov 2026 with temps over +2.0 C

3rd Slide IOD bad news, earlier model was predicting strong IOD around sep with temp rising upto +1.2 C possibly, but chances are now bleaks recent models shows it to be borderline positive IOD till Sep.

4th Slide is real time SST dated 16 July 2026

fyi IOD is what enhances Indian Monsoon (including Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and parts of Myanmar, Thailand etc), and El-Nino is what weakens it "generally".

Source:
https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/?index=nino34#tabs=Graphs

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/?index=iod#tabs=Graphs

1st slide is SST anomaly over NINO 3.4 region

2nd Slide is Real SST value over NINO 3.4 region

3rd Slide is Realtime SST value dated for 16 July for the entire Globe

expect weak monsoon for Indian Subcontinent, NE India and South India (NE monsoon areas only) can have good rainfall rest of India GOOD LUCK

recently a low-pressure area has formed that will bring rainfall to many NW, NE, S and Central India, rain deficiency should be improved otherwise next monsoon break will be horrendous in next month August.

Source:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/realtime-data

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif