lets start where I left off

16. Snowballs (0.02)

One of the best teams post 2022, although my rankings suggest their only bad seasons were 2020 and 2021, they weren't that bad and when they actually made it to main league they proved that.

15. Rojo Rollers (0.023)

The Rollers are not as bad as they seem, with above average performances every year except 2020, 2021 and 2025, only if they consistently qualified, 2023 proved what they can do in main league

14. Kobalts (0.024)

While they are a bit inconsistent, with very good showdowns and very bad ones, they don't deserve to be a permanent showdown team and their 2025 win proved that

13. Green Ducks (0.03)

Their last 2 performances, especially 2025 were mediocre to say the least, and a disaster 2020 lowers their ranking, remember bad performances in leagues are much more punishing then being bad in showdown, same logic applies for being good in league or showdown. Even their 2019 isn't valued that highly by zscores, its in top 20 all-time but it was not a 200 point performance

12. Shining Swarm (0.033)

One of the most underrated teams, if you look at their league performances by points they have been good 3/4 years, only if they werent bad at showdown or qualifiers, and their 2026 relegation doesnt help

11. Turtle Sliders (0.039)

uhhhh yeah im not sure if I agree with this and the next team, they are the 2 teams I disagree with in this ranking, well I'll explain why they are 11th, 5/8 of their showdowns have been above average with 4 of them (22,23,25,26) being quite good, they need to justify their position with a main league performance though. However this ranking suggests that they probably wont be bad if they qualify

10. Wolfpack (0.04)

They are carried by their recent showdown which was really good and since they only have 1 league performance it impacts more in their average, if they can translate that showdown to the league their position will be justified

9. Bumblebees (0.05)

Only including Summer Leagues they would be 6th, ahead of the Speeders, (I'll get there), Since the merger they have been consistently good, with 1st zscore in 2023 and 2nd in 2026.

8. Black Jacks (0.07)

In their first years, their only below average one has been 2023, even 2026 was above average, they got really unlucky there they had good times/scores every event but they couldn't translate that to meaningful points. They also had that problem in 2025 to a lesser extent, in fact they were top 2 in averages until Sand Rally.

Fun Fact: Their zscores for 2025 and 2026 are better than 2024

7. Crazy Cat's Eyes (0.09)

The M1 goats are good in the league too, helped by them not having a truly bad performance, league or showdown. Their zscore victory in 2024 is their best showing, better than their 2023 championship which was barely above average and was the worst championship of all-time

6. Gliding Glaciers (0.10)

Now the most underrated team in JMR, also the unluckiest, they have underperformed their zscore every year, in placements, even when they do bad zscore wise their actual placement is worse. Their 2021 league is top 15 all time, helped by the fact I don't consider DNFs for averages. From there they have been above average every year except 2023. Now if their times actually were points they could do something but until then people will look at them as an irrelevant mid team

5. Savage Speeders (0.11)

They would be 2nd all-time without their 7th worst all-time disaster performance this year. Even then there were signs they weren't as good as they seemed. their zscore placements being from 2016: 4th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 5th, 14th, 4th, 3rd, 11th, 6th, 16th. Good placements, but they usually overperform in reality. However if they perform like they did before this year they should be able to contend for next league's championship

4. Pinkies (0.12)

From 2021, best team but their showings prior (especially 2019) lower their placement. They have podiumed 3 times in zscores (1st 22, 26 and 2nd 23) and their recent performance nearly beat 2022's average. I will not be surprised if they get top 5 in 2027

3. Team Galactic (0.13)

Maybe the most consistent team in JMR, or 2nd to the team above them. In their start they were mid, usually having 8-11th best average in their leagues. But after 2019 their zscore placements have been: 4th, 4th SD, 2nd, 4th, 10th, 2nd, 10th SD, they have the same problem as the Glaciers and Jacks though, well atleast they came close to winning once

2. Raspberry Racers (0.15)

After a disaster 2025 they came back in 2026 with their 2nd best showing yet. Helped by their 2019 best all-time, which gaps 2nd place 2017 O'rangers (0.95 to 0.67). the gap from 2nd to 13th is about the same as the one from 2nd to 1st. Even then they have been a consistent top half team that is mostly near the top of the leaderboard

The gap from 2nd to 1st is about the same as from 2nd to 7th

drumroll please.......

1. O'Rangers (0.23)

While in their last 4 years they have performed like the 10-12th best team. up to 2022 they were unrivaled, their zscore placements from 2016 being: 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 10th, 3rd, 11th, 10th SD, 5th, 6th SD

They could have won 2025 if they didn't choke Sand Rally but 5 podiums is crazy. Their worst league performance is -0.03 in 2023, compared to the Speeders' -0.50 in 2026 or the Razzies' -0.37 in 2025. Qualifiers are the biggest problem for them recently, they wouldnt have qualified for 2025 if they werent hosts and they barely made it to 2022. They would have had an even better score if they made it to 24 and 26 as they do way better in league than showdown. They are the best team despite how washed they seem

A League victory in 2027 would help them prove that, if they can even qualify

Spreadsheet: ML Power Rankings

Negative Sock shows up early, from there, Idol, Photo, Blueprint and Brainstorm show up before endless. Ancient and Chad also show up later on

For Econ there is early Business and Dice, with Mail in Rebate and Golden Ticket showing up later on. I definetly didnt optimize econ so you can def improve on that

Tarot gen is limited, no purple seal in standard packs, there is a very good Hallucination that hits nearly every time and gives good tarots and a Cartomancer but that shows up after the good jokers you need

You can get multiple Red Seal Glass Queens very early due to good tarots, I played on Checkered so them being Spades favoured me

Other things: Sixth Sense is crucial probably, Ectoplasm is needed for survival later on and it can potentially give you things like purple seal

also, DONT TAKE SOUL IN ARCANA PACK

im back hello

Ducks predicted 1st again

This should be better than the last 2 disaster projections since its not an unpredictable event this time

Very unusual bottom 4. Overall projections predict Stars, Hazers and Razzies final podium. Speeders have been slowly rising these past events though...

DUCKS COMEBACK HERE WE GO

kinda busy rn so cant post an analysis

light weight teams and the Razzies hold the podium in the best event for CCE

Overall CCE skyrockets because of their 2nd in funnels and the good event announcements for them, Stars remain at a comfortable lead while Hazers drop out of podium

#FiveStars

Racers, CCE, Ducks projected in podium. With this being the best event for Racers, they arent 1st seed in funnels surprisingly, guess who actually is.

Speeders 7th seed in a speed event surprising. Only 3 spots of the Flares lmao.

Plasma bottom again, I swear they have good events they are coming, Oceanics and Kobalts also in the bottom too

Bowling predictions were very good, with an avg differential of 4.12, which would have been 3.46 if not for the Stars going from 15th to 1st, them and the Kobalts suffered from lack of data.

If you are wondering how I predicted a seemingly random event its because I used data from Curling, Bocce, Diving and Archery for Bowling, seems weird but if you look at these events you will see that the teams who aim for the middle are rewarded most. So thats how I knew teams like Oceanics were going to be good at Bowling

late but still got it

Finally we have a predictable event after 2 RNG events. Speeders have to podium here or they will tank in the projection

Overall Projection Update

• No BP really helps Hazers and the other light weight teams
• CCE collapses from a 19 point lead to 6th, due to getting 7th and 12th in events they were predicted 1st
• Meanwhile, Stars got top 2 in two of their worst events, going from 16th to 3rd in the projections
• Bees are really unfavored by the new events and by the removal of BP
• Flares and Speeders better hope Triathlon is in, no triathlon drops Flares to 5th and Speeders to 15th

After Balancing, we have an even more unpredctable event, Short-track. The favorites here are similar to that event

CCE and Snowballs in top 3 again, this time joined by the Chocs

CCE, Bumblebees and Snowballs start off in the predicted podium, I will say, Balancing is not on the predictable side so even Plasma could totally win this

Qualifiers Results

Predicted 4/6 Teams for each group with Wisps, Glaciers being replaced by Plasma and very surprisingly Flares. and in Group B Galactic and O's being replaced by Stars and Chocs

Underwater Race and Hurdles turned out to be the most reliable while Balancing and Javelin due to lack of data had huge prediction differentials

Overall Update

I added recency bias to my data, compare something like BP 2025 to 2020, huge diff. Also accounted for Stone Toss and Bowling. This gives CCE a massive 19 point lead. Snowballs drop 3 points and 3 positions due to Ducks and Jacks rising (Stone Toss should be very good for them) Flares also rise to 11th and Razzies fall to 10th.

atm I would say main contenders are in order: CCE, Speeders, Hazers and Snowballs

Teams like Jacks, Plasma and Flares are huge wild cards due to lack of data

Flares have chances to podium and maybe win lmao (Swing Wave needs to be in tho)