Using the traditonal 4% swr, my $2.5m nw at age 53 would seem like it could spin off $100k gross spend per year, and maybe roughly $84k of net spend of taxes per year, but if you add in social security, roth conversions, and a guard rails approach, I found that I could safely spend $120k net ($133k gross) with a 90%+ chance of never running out of money before age 90.

$133k gross withrdrawal would be equal to 5.3% swr in the beginning. The key elements that made my withdrawal rate sustainable was:

1. Social security kicking in at age 67 substantially lowering swr from there on out.

2. Guardrails approach means if i am willing to lower my net spend to about 9k on leans years, and 10k / month on good years, ups my success rate quite a bit.

3. with a starting pre/post tax mix of 60pre / 40post tax accounts, doing a good amount of roth conversions from age 55 - 70 means my net tax rate will go down to about 7-8%

Point is, If i used standard calculations of an 8.3k / month spend on $2.5m nw, at net, you would think you can spend $7k/month net of taxes, but the real number if you plan it correctly, you can really spend between $9k - $10k per month and have 90% success rate.

Its worth it to dig into the details...

She keeps saying you need 5-10m if not 20-100m to retire.
Obviously this is not realistic for 99% of people. But why does she say this? What's her ulterior motive?

edit - I listened to the podcast someone linked below: and she's saying 80k after taxes will not be enough for anyone to live on, and that you need to plan on living on 350k-400k after taxes so you need 6-10 million dollars. It makes me think she is completely out of touch with reality.

Seriously, profits before people. this person is not hated enough

https://www.wonderwall.com/news/shark-tank-star-kevin-oleary-heated-debate-tucker-carlson/#google_vignette

I'm 53, and nearing retirement having saved a few million dollars, which i consider quite good. When I see people on these forums who are 27 making $350k a year, I'm just amazed.

To give some context, When i was 30, I was fairly successful amongst my friends, living in vhcol city (not as high back then), say 2003, and I think my nw was about $100k, and I made about $95k which i thought was a lot.

it gradually increased maxing out around $250k into my 40's. I didn't know anyone who made over $300k back than, and if there were, it was very unusual. It seems like its very common place nowadays. Is it recent? Or am is it the forums I am on?

How am i doing? This is my retire early budget (8k), and I would like to bring it down a bit.

Single 53 yr old, VHCOL area, live alone

Rent - $3200

Subscriptions, phone, insurace, fees etc - $500

Car Parking, car insurance, gas, tolls - $500

Groceries - $300, Eating out $700

Travel $600

Health insurance - $800

Buying misc stuff - $1000

Fun money $500

It seems like most people expect 10% return yearly on their portfolio to get to fire, but 4% rule is based on 60-70% stock to bond portfolio and most people do or should hold 5-10% cash (depending on person)

So it seems using 10% is wildly optimistic, if you're portfolion isn't 100% equities, which i hope for people's sake it isn't... With that portfolio structure, 8% is more realistic.

Firing to se asia, i did a test run already and know that i'd like to live there most of the year and in the us for part of the year. Curious for those that expatfired, how often and how long do you go back to the us, or your home country to visit once you expat fired?

Something I don't hear people talk about is how much they plan on spending early in FIRE versus later in life.

Using myself as an example, 53, single, $2.5m nw. I had a financial advisor do a diagnosis on my situation. If i retire now, they have me spending $120k a year now, when it gets to my 80's and even 90's, my spend becomes $300k - $400k. I would still die with several million dollars.

I'm also reading some studies by JPM and others that retirees spend actually decreases into their late 70's and beyond. This makes sense to me as spending on travel, eating out, buying clothes will decrease. I get that health care costs will increase but from what i've seen, it doesn't overtake those other decreasing costs late in life. Rough studies say costs start decreasing 1% per year (but that is a huge difference from increasing 3% per year). I also see nursing homes can be $10k a month, but that would be covered in my current budget anyways.

Now I don't have any heirs that I need to leave money to. I would rather spend the money now early in retirement to travel, and not wait until my 80's to be spending hundreds of thousands of year, and die with millions.

What are people's thoughts on this, and what are some good tools to model out spending earlier versus later?

As a single person, I hit 1M about 10 years ago, and I remember not feeling much at the time, other than thinking "I'm a millionaire". But it honestly didn't change much. I knew i would probably never starve, but i already knew that at $800k as well.

But $2M did change something in my mind. that's when retiring early became real, and not just something potentially in a few years. 2M meant if there was a bad market, than I "probably" will not have to go back to work. Now 1 year later, it increased to $2.5m, and as a single person, that was always my fire number.

In essence, 1M didn't feel that special, but 2M did. And it was mostly because it gave margin for error. I think anything beyond this will be nice, but 2M will always be the point when I knew I was going to be ok.

I was curious what the rising costs of renting versus owning were. Talking to home owners who says their monthly rates don't go up but renting does. This doesn't take into account rising taxes, maintenance and insurance costs.

I compared 3 markets (florida, ohio, california) and this is the quick recap (time frame: 2020 - 2025):

Of course, each market are quite different. Cost increases were higher for home owners in florida, slightly higher for renters in ohio, and lower for rent controlled renters in california (about the same for non rent controlled)

This was eye opening for my friends because it dispells the myth that once you buy a house, your ownership costs do not increase.

Side-by-side comparison

Market	Rent Increase (Typical Annual)	Homeowner Cost Increase (All-in)	Who gets hit harder?
Fort Lauderdale	5–9% (volatile spikes)	6–10%+ (insurance-driven)	Homeowners (long-term)
Columbus	4–6% (steady)	3–5% (stable)	Renters slightly
Los Angeles	1–4% (controlled) / 4–7% market	4–6%	Depends (rent control matters)

Specifically, any tips on keeping magi below where one get's subsidies?

If you would share you age / plan (silver etc) / state / monthly rate (w/or without subsidies

Hi, wondering if anyone has had experience with apple care in washington state? I recently lost my job in Seattle, and I heard that apple care looks at my current income and if below $1732 a month, i would qualify for it.

I have some issues and prescriptions, and wondering if this would be sufficient for my healthcare needs, or if i should try for a aca plan?

i tried posting on healthcare subreddit, but not many washingtonians there

I moved abroad in january, and now need to return in august for a family issue. (i had my stuff in storage, and have monthly airbnb rental receipts while abroad as well as passport stamps and flights).
Question - does my return from abroad qualify as a trigger even for aca marketplace so that i can get healthcare starting in august?

I moved out of washington state overseas in january, and my jobs insurance ended march 30, I want to return to the states in august (which is more than 60 days after leaving health insurance).

Can anyone advise if returning to the US from overseas is a triggering event that i can apply for ACA at that point?