Celtics advance stats with and without Tatum this year
I used Basketball Reference’s game-by-game data to compare how the Celtics performed with and without Jayson Tatum. I broke the games down by opponent strength and looked at offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, assist percentage, and pace.
NO TATUM — vs Top Offensive Net Rating
\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 7-10 | ORtg: 113.85 | DRtg: 115.97 | Net: -2.12 | Pace: 93.93 | AST%: 55.48
\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 16-5 | ORtg: 123.74 | DRtg: 115.08 | Net: +8.66 | Pace: 94.80 | AST%: 56.62
\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 18-6 | ORtg: 122.53 | DRtg: 108.44 | Net: +14.09 | Pace: 95.03 | AST%: 59.87
NO TATUM — vs Top Defensive Rating
\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 14-5 | ORtg: 119.67 | DRtg: 113.01 | Net: +6.66 | Pace: 95.17 | AST%: 58.38
\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 15-11 | ORtg: 119.52 | DRtg: 114.50 | Net: +5.02 | Pace: 95.51 | AST%: 56.56
\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 12-5 | ORtg: 123.14 | DRtg: 109.79 | Net: +13.35 | Pace: 92.76 | AST%: 58.21
NO TATUM — vs Net Rating
\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 8-9 | ORtg: 116.19 | DRtg: 117.77 | Net: -1.58 | Pace: 94.18 | AST%: 54.20
\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 14-3 | ORtg: 120.78 | DRtg: 107.48 | Net: +13.30 | Pace: 95.56 | AST%: 59.31
\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 13-4 | ORtg: 124.19 | DRtg: 109.11 | Net: +15.08 | Pace: 94.35 | AST%: 60.44
WITH TATUM — vs Offensive Rating
\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 4-3 | ORtg: 121.46 | DRtg: 116.76 | Net: +4.70 | Pace: 91.63 | AST%: 60.19
\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 7-2 | ORtg: 119.77 | DRtg: 110.93 | Net: +8.84 | Pace: 98.49 | AST%: 60.80
\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 4-0 | ORtg: 126.07 | DRtg: 108.17 | Net: +17.90 | Pace: 95.50 | AST%: 61.48
WITH TATUM — vs Defensive Rating
\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 7-2 | ORtg: 122.51 | DRtg: 113.26 | Net: +9.25 | Pace: 94.78 | AST%: 57.96
\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 3-2 | ORtg: 112.68 | DRtg: 108.78 | Net: +3.90 | Pace: 96.50 | AST%: 61.92
\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 4-0 | ORtg: 132.30 | DRtg: 114.08 | Net: +18.22 | Pace: 97.08 | AST%: 65.08
WITH TATUM — vs Net Rating
\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 5-4 | ORtg: 117.86 | DRtg: 113.74 | Net: +4.12 | Pace: 93.12 | AST%: 58.28
\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 7-1 | ORtg: 125.30 | DRtg: 113.31 | Net: +11.99 | Pace: 97.51 | AST%: 60.81
\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 2-0 | ORtg: 130.60 | DRtg: 107.45 | Net: +23.15 | Pace: 93.55 | AST%: 68.35
The biggest takeaway is that Boston consistently posted better net ratings and records against stronger opponents when Tatum played. The offense also generally had a higher assist percentage with him on the floor, suggesting better ball movement and creation. My interpretation is that Brown is at his best as an elite No. 2 option rather than the primary offensive engine for extended stretches. This isn’t meant to diminish Brown’s value, he’s still an excellent player, but the data suggests the Celtics function most effectively when Tatum is leading the offense. I’m also a bit concerned for brown If he’s traded to a team without spacing, we have never seen how brown handles playing with a non borderline elite spacing system when he’s been a star to super star.