JPMorgan $32 -> $45
Mizuho $34 -> $35
Citigroup $33 -> $39
Bernstein $37 -> $42
Raymond James $39 -> $48
Barclays $38 -> $39
Rosenblatt $45 -> $51
BofA $28 ->$33
Goldman Sachs $30 -> $34
Wedbush $34 -> $40
TLDR SMCI rose 1.1% to $31.46 ahead of Q4 earnings, with volume 26% above average Analysts expect $11.2 billion in revenue, up 91% year over year, and EPS of $1.33 Supermicro reported over $60 billion in new Q4 orders and raised gross margin guidance to 15%-17% The stock is down 30% over the past 12 [...] The post Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from...
TLDR Super Micro Computer reports Q4 earnings after the bell on Tuesday, and Wall Street is watching closely. The stock closed at $31.46 on Monday, up 1.1%, with trading volume running 26% above the daily average.SMCI rose 1.1% to $31.46 ahead of Q4 earnings, with volume 26% above average Analysts expect $11.2 billion in revenue, up 91% year over year, and EPS of $1.33 Supermicro reported over $60 billion in new Q4 orders and raised gross margin guidance to 15%-17% The stock is down 30% over the past 12 months, lagging rivals Dell (+230%) and HPE (+160%) Key risks include negative operating cash flow of -$7.56 billion and rising inventory levels
Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.33 on revenue of $11.2 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. That compares to EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $5.7 billion in the same quarter last year.
Gross margins are forecast to reach 15.8%, up 9.6% year over year. Supermicro itself guided for margins between 15% and 17%, a big jump from prior guidance of just 8.2% to 8.4%.
The margin upgrade, announced late last month as part of a preliminary business update, sent SMCI stock soaring more than 20% at the time.
The company also disclosed more than $60 billion in new Q4 orders, fueling optimism around AI-server demand. Options traders leaned heavily toward calls ahead of the report, a sign some are positioned for an upside surprise.
CEO Charles Liang announced in June that Supermicro plans to co-build a gigawatt-scale data center for SpaceX and xAI within a year. That kind of high-profile project adds credibility to the order pipeline.
Needham raised its price target to $46 with a Buy rating. Barclays moved its target up to $38, keeping an equal weight rating. The consensus average price target sits at $39.21, well above the current stock price.
Four analysts have a Buy rating on SMCI, twelve say Hold, and two say Sell. The consensus rating is Hold.
Despite the strong order numbers, the balance sheet has some rough edges. Operating cash flow came in at negative $7.56 billion, while inventories and receivables have both expanded sharply.
Investors are asking a fair question: if business is booming, where is the cash? Bulls want to see margin and cash flow improvement, not just a top-line beat.
There is also uncertainty about whether all reported orders represent firm commitments. A buildup of finished-goods inventory raises obsolescence risk if product mix shifts or demand softens.
In June, Supermicro raised up to $7 billion in equity-linked financing to fund its AI build-out, adding to concerns about dilution and leverage.
The company is also navigating a regulatory situation. In April, Supermicro launched an independent investigation after the Department of Justice indicted co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw and two others for allegedly violating US export controls. Supermicro was not named as a defendant.
Over the past 12 months, SMCI is down roughly 30%, while HPE is up around 160% and Dell has gained more than 230%.
The stock has a beta of 1.95, a PE ratio of 16.65, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88.
Supermicro reports Q4 results after market close on Tuesday, August 12.
The post Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today appeared first on CoinCentral.
TLDR; I want to highlight / talk about some things that are not often mentioned here.
Source: 10-K '25, Page 109
4 out of the 5 goals were archieved. The last one is left, which is a 60 trading day average stock price of $110. Details of the granted award (before the 10:1 stock split):
"...Stock Price Goals must be achieved by March 31, 2029...",
"Liang agreed to receive a $1 annual salary and no cash bonus during the award period, subject to the agreement’s terms"
insider ownership as of January 31, 2026 (~15.3%)
(Yes, Liaw sold some shares)
Compared to other companies in the sector, SMCI's insiders own a lot more.
Source: Stockholder Meeting '26
Source: 10-K '25, Page 106
As of now SMCI sold ~3.750.000 convertible preferred stock
The fully diluted sharecount for FY27 is ~ 915M so far...
Not much room left (until the upcoming annual shareholder meeting in April 27)
What do you think?
Please correct me if I'm wrong!
- July 24:
- July 29:
- week 31:
(
- week 31 - 32:
)
- August 11:
- August 14:
- August 25:
- August 26:
- August 31:
- September 1:
- September 3:
Barclays $34 -> $38
Needham $40 -> $46
Mizuho $44 -> $34 🤡
Does anybody have other infos?
Very bullish Put-Call-Ratio for the upcoming ER in August.
Majority of Puts are probably sold short for premium or bought as a hedge!
Let's have some fun with a little calculation today.
I'll use a very basic approach to calculate working capital by adding up all current assets and subtracting all current liabilities.
After Q326 we had roughly $13.4B in working capital. Now add the $4.9B from the latest financing and we end up with ~$18.3B.
So I was wondering if there is a connection between working capital and revenues in subsequent quarters?
Of course it is, bc SMCI is investing in its growth!
I came up with this diagram:
The latest offerings make perfect sense if you assume the trend shown in the chart continues and quarterly revenue grows to around $15B over the next few quarters.
I'm usually very conservative when it comes to financial modeling, but I genuinely believe we'll reach $60B in FY27. That would translate into another exceptional year of growth—50% year over year, following 79% growth last year.
What are your thoughts?
Latest FTD Update for SMCI & SMCX (after the latest big price drop)
I know a lot of you don't think much of this, but to me it means a lot.
Especially the ~2 million FTDs for SMCI on June 11—levels we haven't seen since September '25.
I strongly believe these could provide additional upward momentum once the stock price starts to rise.
Funnily enough, the deadline is around the time of the quarterly report.
I want to model forward EPS (diluted non-GAAP) and P/E for FY27.
What are your opinions on the fully diluted sharecount for end of FY27?
As of April 30, 2026 we had 601,418,482 shares outstanding.
Source, 10-Q Q326:
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001375365/ded6b7f6-9a1c-412b-adbc-16db0a89fd3d.pdf
fully diluted non-GAAP sharecount was 709.15M in Q3.
Latest equity and equity-linked financing transactions:
- Common stock offering: 45,454,545 shares
- Depositary shares: 75,000,000 shares
(both without additional shares purchased, up to 18M)
Future ATM offering of up to $2.0B (no earlier than the third quarter of 2026):
- probably in August after the ER, when price is higher!?
- Let's assume they do the $2.0B at ~ $35 -> 57.1M shares
...so...
709.15M
+ 45.45M
+ 75.00M
+ 57.10M
= 886.7M shares (diluted non-GAAP) so far! xD
Correct?
...pretty close...
also interesting:
Have a nice Monday!
Remember this post a month ago:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SMCIDiscussion/comments/1t25cke/institutional_ownership/
...just in case anyone's wondering where we are now...
well above 400M!
I guess they're all thinking the company is shit...
sources:
https://www.nasdaq.com/de/market-activity/stocks/smci/institutional-holdings
TLDR; SpaceXAI is a major Supermicro customer and will likely continue to be one.
They will account for up to $25B of FY27 revenue.
Deep dive into what could potentially happen next:
As perhaps everyone has noticed, SpaceXAI had its IPO last Friday.
They sold 555.555.555 shares @ $135 and raised $75B in capital (without the Greenshoe).
The company is already a customer of Supermicro and accounts for approximately 62.6% in Q226 and 27% in Q326 of revenues, totaling $10.7B in FY26 so far.
Supermicro helped in building Colossus I + II in Memphis, Tennessee
...but there is more...
take a look at this video from Feb26:
https://youtu.be/HD_SiJDWPcQ?si=qrojiDEFZtsJJXYG&t=2077
at 34:50 Elon mentions that they will add another 220k GB300s to the Macrohard building.
earlier in Dec25 we got this post from our CEO:
Let's do some math:
220.000 GPUs / 72/rack = ~3.050 racks
$4.2M/rack = ~$12.7B
...does that sound familiar?
Remember the large customer I mentioned before that accounted for $10.7B in revenue in Q2 and Q3? Now subtract the $10.7B from my calculated $12.7B. So there is exactly $2.0B in revenue left.
How much revenue was deferred from Q3 to Q4 because of customer readiness issues?
Exactly, ~$2.0B.
Q326 Earnings:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FR0JlPuKUUU
...so far so good...
at the J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference on May 18, 2026
Michael Staiger SVP of Corporate Development mentioned:
"a whole entire datacenter just went to some... you know..."
https://youtu.be/8OGp8wsuV1U?si=A9ufDMvq2cvE6eqb&t=992
...take it with a grain of salt...
then we got this post from the CEO himself:
Let's do the calculation:
1GW total facility power /1.2 / 135kW/rack ~ 6.200 racks
6.200 racks * $4.0M ~ $25.0B in revenue
Charles said:"proud to co-build..." in his post, but Michael Staiger said:"a whole entire datacenter..."
So everything from here on out is pure speculation....
They could be co-building with DELL, but idk.
What's your opinion?
On Tuesday, August 4, 2026 we'll have the next earnings release for Q426 and FY26.
Most likely they will give us awesome guidance for FY27.
I think it will be around $55B given the announcements and my calculations.
Let's do a worst case scenario with that number:
Revenue: $55B
Net Margin: 5%
Net income: $2.75B
diluted shares: 900M
EPS: 3.05
P/E: 20
Stock price: ~$60
pretty conservative I think, except the P/E
Let's discuss!
TLDR; Super Micro is approaching ownership of 25% of the OEM AI server and systems market.
Source: Infotechlead.com
Dell Technologies used Dell Technologies World 2026 to reinforce its expanding position in enterprise AI infrastructure, highlighting strong momentum in AIservers, private AI deployments, edge computing, storage, networking, and AI ecosystem partnerships.
According to Technology Business Research (TBR) Principal Analyst Angela Lambert, Dell is approaching ownership of nearly half of the OEM AI server andsystems market as enterprises accelerate investments in AI infrastructure for model training, inference, agentic AI, and sovereign AI deployments.
TBR estimates show Dell held 46.7 percent of the 2025 OEM AI server and systems market, significantly ahead of competitors including:
Dell: 46.7 percent
Supermicro: 25.0 percent
Hewlett Packard Enterprise: 11.7 percent
Lenovo: 1.7 percent
Other OEM vendors: 15.0 percent
Prette sure someone uses this 2X Long SMCI ETF to short down the stock.
Never seen before amounts of FTDs have their closing deadline in the next two weeks ahead.
SMCX has only 7M oustandings atm,
of which are additionally 26% short.
Let that sink in!
I think we'll see something similar to last ER week:
Just wanted to leave this here.
Very interesting that the Institutional Ownership never really changed after SMCI sucessfully filed all the required financial reports to avoid NASDAQ delisting in February.
Currently sitting at 334,031,252 Shares or 55.77% (598,989,428 Outstanding)
Source:
Yes, today was a Securities Class Action filed Against Super Micro Computer, Inc.
But:
If everything goes accordingly to the guidance for Q3'26 we'll see EPS of $0.60- this quarter, which brings us to $1.79- for the last 12 months.
If you compare with other companies:
- DELL trl P/E: 23.6
- HPE trl P/E: 24.1
- VRT trl P/E: 76.7
When you apply a multiple like DELL we would be at: 23.6 * 1.79 = $42.24
65% upside
