Data changes day to day and intraday β οΈ
None of this is financial advice.
I believe the majority of price action is the result of managing the multidimensional risk picture. GEX is only a part of the volatility environment risk, one risk of many in the risk picture.
hey everyone,
for those who don't know, I go by Budget and I'm a quant who loves solving the multidimensional risk problem that drives price action.
> this post was originally posted in r/ daytrading on Sunday but was deleted without breaking rules so I'm posting here
I've been commenting for a while now, I've posted a smaller package once before, the Day Trader's Macro that gives retail traders insight into what the macro under currents are for the next few hours (last screenshot), but today I'm here to share a higher tier package that comes with that but also, my market volatility model and the volatility model for single stocks that has been the envy of many.
as these models are battle tested, proven by sustaining my profitable trading & analysis the last 2 years, for which my edge builds on.
it also includes GEX, because let's be frank it's really helpful and pairs really well with the volatility model. I actually don't bother with GEX without the volatility model because it's required to know the volatility risk in order to know properly read GEX! Net GEX no longer informs if dealers are short or long gamma (long or short volatility).. too many people figured that out, like the Window of Support, and then market evolved, which is great for me because I like playing the actual game.. keeping up with how the music changes.
the volatility model informs when market makers bots are going long or short volatility (some traders refers to it as short gamma vs long gamma). and what matters most is the timing which it does a fantastic job by being available in two versions that focus on different horizons (one short about 2-3 days and the other near term about 15-60 minutes, which is ideal for intraday entries,. scalping etc) so you can know when the GEX levels are actually going to act like support or resistance versus being a launch pad for a rocket ship π
it informs on the under current for the volatility risk! what better tool to use when trading options.. I don't know.
that said, I'm a big believer in letting results speak for themselves, so I've made public calls to raise awareness on the efficacy of these models the last couple of months:
I haven't deleted a single call out.
but heads up, going forward, I won't be doing that anymore.. instead focusing on trades shared in the discord, risk modeling needs as the picture changes in the coming years and my clients.
I've been blessed to have a few awesome customers and we're getting ready for what's to come the next few years, as I prep a new app and API for tracking the multidimensional risk picture in realtime.
I'm very much looking forward to it and more specifically day trading with it but until then you can use these models, like I do! these are actual quant models that are on par, if not better than what hedge funds use to have an advantage over everyone else. two small funds license them!
tldr: these days, day traders have to be aware of much more of the risk picture than before. for example, macro is unstable, day to day.. causing day traders to lose out on momentum plays from getting rug pulled so it's become important to stay informed on these foundational risks because of how unstable the foundation really is and that's where these models come in.
I've built them specifically for the times we're in (deglobalization, unstable macro, high kurtosis, etc).. and now you can be informed with a real edge too, while keeping up with market changes as I keep my clients informed.
Budget
Im thrilled to announce a new limited tier called Market Investor Pro π
it focuses on S&P 500 and Nasdaq ie $spy $qqq
includes:
newest macro models β
long term market analysis β
swing callouts & trades β
and π₯π₯
access to the new real-time market risk beta!
only 10 seats available.
price goes up after seats are filled β οΈ
Cboe (originally the Chicago Board Options Exchange) is a major American financial exchange operator. Founded in 1973, it is the largest options exchange in the United States and a premier global market network for trading equities, derivatives, futures, and foreign exchange.
They created the famous and popular VIX index.
So if you are going to learn about options from anyone, they are trustworthy enough to start with and they provide free online courses for you to take, from vetted experts.
After that you can hmu for some edge on volatility π»π
good luck
last Friday's analysis (almost a week ago) called this week's price action to the tee using quant models and my edge for markets such as $spy and $qqq
reviewing the analysis.. it was near term vol risk into Friday close/ start of this week for the bears, followed by bullish mean reversion into mid week for the bulls followed by bearish into end of week volatility for the vol players eg:
$20c VIX $.42 to $1.25 over night swing π
that's how it's done, that's the vol game
stop guessing and start playing with Budget's Bananas π
careful
I've seen, and been made aware of by a community member, a rise in copy cats and imposters β οΈ
from reddit to discord and maybe further..
people mimicking my edge, style, models etc
there's even a post where the language sounds like me.. it's kind of creepy but I guess that's part of the game now with LLM's... π
so here's the deal π€
these players are ready for me to call them out, so if I try to protect y'all out here, you know as I usually do, they will use bots, shills, alt accounts, friends etc to create a political show to inspire a backlash like cancel culture that benefits themselves by essentially running a trick on everyone else
so I can't call them out.
but, I'd appreciate your support in this matter, please remain skeptical of anyone talking about stuff that I talk about (eg volatility π’), even if they get something right a couple of times.. as even a broken clock is right twice a day π°οΈ
this stuff isn't easy.
I have a knack for pointing out which risk dimension to watch, when it counts and since there's too much to explain, I often don't so watching me can often mislead people into thinking it's simple.. but I'm protecting my edge with subtle discretion while attempting to help beginners begin the right and least painful way
making money while learning π»
ps it takes a ton of expensive data and compute to run the models, so please consider becoming a patreon (gives you direct model access!) or a donation of any size, the gesture means a lot.
pps I do not do a copy-trade service β οΈ I will not reach out by DM offering such services. it's only the two links above, this Reddit account posting, discord account and X account.
>the game never stops, keep on leveling up
macro model scored bullish 1 before open, with a warning for chop β οΈπͺ
it flipped a bit after market open (1 bear then back to 1 bull), and then 20 minutes after market opened, it flipped back to bear 1 and held till writing this
meanwhile $SPY has been chopping around, leaning bearish
this is one of my favorite models to lean on when considering, should I trade now or maybe check back later.
a low macro score is typically followed by tight range, choppy price action that personally for me, I'd rather sit out and just work on code or study something new
there's so much we can quantify
anyway, I'm pushing hard a major update for Voyager (that Budget's Bananas software for its models and everything) so back to the grind, let's get it!
βοΈ
Hey everyone,
I go by Budget. I'm an old fart who loves solving system problems with 20+ years of tech industry experience, but about 6 years ago, I got serious with learning, modeling, investing and trading markets.. looking for that edge mainly S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the Cadillacs of markets.
At the start of the year, I posted on Superstonk (I don't know if rules permit me from linking to it here, but if I can, I'll add it in the comments), my market view going into the year (tldr statistically leptokurtic, macro unstable but favoring stagflation but also as a best outcome) and even a year prior, I posted a DD about it, that macro was a growing concern, a headwind that impacts $GME but also broader markets S&P 500 and really the whole world, including major geopolitical players.. we're all connected.
These macro problems have flowed downstream, impacting day trading. It's simply a bit harder now.
Traditionally, macro winds don't change much, they are stable month to month or week to week so day traders like momentum, traditionally could ignore them, be wrong only once in a while from a macro change, but in the long run, no big deal. However, now things are perhaps stuck in a transitory state between major shifting macro regimes or for lack of better words, macro is unstable, like a fish flipping out of water and at times worse, like a strobe light at a rave.
Lately, we've seen macro change day to day or even intraday.
So to help keep day traders informed on those macro winds, here's a macro model built, fine-tuned and battle-tested before LLM's that I use as my compass in informing my view of the risk picture for macro, day to day and intraday.
The model produces a clean macro score that is anchored between 0-10 bull or bear, but can go up to 13 for extreme cases.
Macro scores of 0-3 indicate probable tight market activity within $SPY like chop so I tend to work on other things when that score is low, or perhaps look for dispersion opportunities with other models, as this macro model helps inform when not to trade, but also how traditional investors may be trading that day, from institutions to pension funds, per how they view risk.
It runs on an automated discord channel 24/7/365, posting once every 5 minutes.
There's a 7 day free trial, otherwise it's $11.99/mo (unlocked by Patreon membership) π§
It also includes special access to a "Windows" channel for knowing when that model is favored by markets ;)
Otherwise, happy July 4th. I hope you all have a great rest of your week!
Budget
Hi everyone, I'm your host Budget and today we're launching a new tier called Day Trader's Macro for day traders who already have a setup, IC, or edge but want to improve reliability by covering the macro blindspot with a battle-prove macro model, in order to know, before trading, which direction the macro winds are blowing.
There's a 7 day free trial!
Meanwhile, Meme Trader Pro, formally called Ape Trader Pro, which includes all major risks that drive $GME or $AMC price action like market volatility, has a new sale for the first month of 80% off! It's a complete package for those starting out.
That's right, the same models I use to forecast and trade $GME or $AMC over the last two years, what my edge is built on, is now for a limited time on a super sale for you, to build up and improve your edge with.
Skip years of trial and error with Budget's proven quant models in these harder times as macro continues to be unstable.
Use coupon code "4B53C" during checkout for Meme Trader Pro π
-Budget
I've said it before, and here's more proof, net GEX is not a reliable indicator into determining if dealers are short volatility ie buying dips and shorting rips or long volatility ie shorting dips and buying rips
these photos are from right after the market opened today
clearly plenty of negative GEX, but looking underneath the hood, the risk was short volatility, which is supportive of markets into melting up
as mentioned in the analysis of the fourth attached screenshot, there was also near term risk for right after market opened which played out too as short volatility won out π’
volatility is bananas π
10 minutes before close and the volatility model continued to show a strong market volatility risk and vol pinned earlier at vix 17 for the gamma ramp to vix 20 π
follow the data π«‘
$spy $qqq $soxx $gme
another day, another scalp
​
hinted about this one too over the weekend on Xπ€
​
vol is bananas πππ
hey all,
this past week I called out two trades on $nvda publicly with a sly hint, using conclusions from the market volatility model (seen in the attached pictures) and the macro model.
> those discord times are Pacific time, as I'm currently in the US West Coast
so what happened?
at the start of this week, Monday, there were signs that we might get some market volatility (first screenshot), possibly aligning with FOMC (analysis in discord). so I was on the lookout for it. then later that day the volatility model started to report a long volatility risk across two short horizons (second screenshot), which are currently set to around 1-5 days each (risk is amorphous, you have to flow with it like water as Cem π₯ says but more specifically one can reduce risk into a queue so when once a risk is fully priced into markets, even if on the early side of a risk window, markets march forward to the next risk in the queue).
then a few hours later, looking at the data again as pressure continued to build up, we saw long vol risks aligning (and macro had bearish risks too) so it was time to go long vol, so I set a bid, shared it privately (screenshot three) and hinted at it publicly. That was 2:30pm ET on Wednesday, right below VIX 16, minutes before VIX started to run up, in a tamed fashion ππ (screenshot four and related to that sly hint).
but that wasn't all, I was disagreeing with Dr. Burry on X in that $nvda call out. my expectations were for mean reversion and more (which has changed since) after the dip so it was a dip to buy, perhaps if only in the near to short term for a mean reversion play, as reported Wednesday morning, 5:29am ET (screenshot five) with price targets already in mind eg $nvda (screenshot six and the public call) and confirmed in the daily volatility forecast (screenshot seven).
so two strategies here and both revolve around timing this market volatility risk shifting to long vol then back to short vol, in order to swing long vol for gains and of course add/go long beta for short volatility ie mean reversion.
(could also sell puts but markets have and continue to exhibit high kurtosis, making short options a dangerous risk to play, especially blindly or by beginners β οΈ)
so using models and high level macro views, I was able to gauge under currents to see trades well before they happened in order to not only be prepared but ready to seize when risk is clear, low and the reward is high and thus, worth the squeeze.
- Budget
been a long time since I've shared a screenshot from my volatility models for $GME xD
​
for those unfamiliar, this is one of the most important reports I use, every day, to stay informed on the risks when it comes to buying $GME at the lowest prices or making some side scratch trading and wheeling its options or other leveraged products
​
it includes a look at what market makers' bots use, Vol chart, which is the heart beat of the volatility risk and GEX, which has grown in popularity over the years like my weekly Monday morning posts
​
anyways, like always.. buy & hlod
​
and, never forget, vol (volatility) is bananas πππ
​
- the quant ape
Data changes day to day and intraday so please only use the latest data π₯Ί
None of this is financial advice.
I believe the majority of price action is the result of managing the multidimensional risk picture. GEX is only a part of the volatility environment risk, one risk of many in the risk picture.
hey everyone,
I want to talk about prop firms, and to the point/tldr (let me be real and just reveal my agenda here by being straight with you), i'm concerned because i haven't been able to make the math work, till recently about how a prop firm's business model could work, in the long run, play the house? how does its math.. math?
> and god forbid, i make enemies with a whole market here but let's go, where's my sword haha
if you will allow me...
if 99% of traders fail then a prop firm must have a very high level of scrutiny for vetting who they allow themselves to sell funded accounts too. makes sense.
so if you take & pass the test, you can then pay $50, $100, $500+ for a funded account of like $50,000 maybe $100,000+.
then there all these rules, you must follow, while trading successfully on top of that, maybe no revenge trading that may introduce a level of *subjectiveness (*that's key later).. before you get a payout. and per the posts we read online, it seems that for at least some people, that payouts do happen!
yet I'm remain skeptical, why?
because of the math, the odds are, generously, 10% will succeed at trading and 90% will fail.
so we sell 10 accounts $500 each, take in $5,000. yay π₯³π
then we fund 10 accounts with $50,000 each at a total cost of $500,000.
of those 10 accounts, 9 fail and 1 succeeds. alone, that's 9 blown accounts, a loss of $450k. but, that one trader, made 40%, no no, that person was f'ing fire, so good, like market wizard status, triples the account for $100k profit (account then at $150k total)
so the math..... you know, from start to finish, -$500k + $150k = -$350k
look, we all know edge/strategy has some kind of statistical component, where you find odds of your strategy working (how often is it usually right), and then pair that with some kind of risk management tactics, so that statistically, in the long run, you net profit, but looking here, with generous odds, and a hell of a trader, the prop firm is still at a loss, and a big one too.
so i was walking earlier (i walk a lot, i recommend it), and it dawned on me, after all these months, seeing those posts, and just feeling odd about them, how the math could actually work.
but, the business would ultimately be a huge illusion, a con.
the way i realized was, make all the trades, simulated or otherwise "funded".. as fake. simulate it all, slippage, whatever, control it all.
in that business model, both gains and losses are imaginary. so it's really just an income of $5k / 10 customers for accounts receivable, and then per liabilities to manage (companies manage risk too, like liabilities), its the payouts, which the business then, in its best personal interest, would focus on minimizing without hurting the business.
to play the devil here, i wouldn't outright limit payouts so much that people get suspicious, but enough to keep profits up while keeping the wheel spinning.
okay enough devil talk, but who knows.. im certainly wrong from time to time, so i must ask, if you can explain the business model, i will stop my speculation
so can anyone explain like how a prop firm successfully plays house, in taking risks then managing them in a way that the math works? like the level of scrutiny for intake of traders must be absurdly high, but no offense, I see many people talking about having funded accounts who sound rather ..... amateurish.. so i find it really sketchy, but please correct me if i'm wrong
otherwise be safe y'all
in memory of those who served and loss β€οΈ