My estimates:
Cloud growth 40%-45%
Ecommerce CMR ~7% +/-1
Quick commerce QOQ loss drop to -20%
Adjusted EPS $1.35-$1.40
Guidance - Management confirms that demand matched expectations and justify the massive capex.
If it meets my estimates, i predict slight positive stock
Movement, baba will trade around $130+ level.
This is my view on the whole AI Bubble thing.
Think about how a classic gold rush works.
So where are we now? Looking at this chart ^((from Exponential Views, posted by Eugene Ng on X)) , we see that three years since the ChatGPT moment, over 80% of all the money in this industry is still sitting right at the bottom layer.
Right now, a lot of people look at the latest cloud earnings from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon and think gold was found. But I see it a bit differently.
IMO, cloud isn't the gold. The hyperscalers are just the modern version of equipment suppliers who are leasing out heavy machinery, power and resources to the miners.
Lets also not forget the circluar financing where the reported cloud growth is just them funding the AI Labs, which those labs immediately hand right back to rental compute.
Personally, I don't think AI is a bubble yet. The technology is real, and the initial capex cycle is to be expected. But for this boom to be sustainable, value has to move up the stack fast.
Curious to know what you guys think.
P.S. I'm not exactly a expert on the AI field. But I done my due diligence studying the technology.
People stealing the lot you’re waiting for!
Seriously, this is one of the things I hate the most.
Already signal, and waiting there patiently for the car to come out, then suddenly another car just swoop in and take the lot like i don’t exist.
Today happened to me. I was waiting there quite long already, finally got 1 car moving out, then this lady just drove straight into the spot.
I buay tahan confronted her and she said she “didn’t know” I was waiting (Honestly it was damn obvious leh)
But okay lah, to her credit, she was reasonable enough to move out after that.
What is the one thing you cannot stand when driving?