Narrowly missed out on 5 grand last night with the last four games of R32. Needed Colombia 2-0. Ended 1-0. Cashed out for £660 in 90th minute. These are my predictions for the next round.
Canada 1-2 Morocco ❌️☑️ (0-3)
Paraguay 1-3 France ❌️☑️ (0-1)
Brazil 3-1 Norway
Mexico 1-1 England
Portugal 2-3 Spain
USA 2-2 Belgium
Argentina 2-1 Egypt
Switzerland 0-2 Colombia
So at the end of the 72 group games, I ended up with two winning correct score accas, which landed a very tidy profit. I was also a goal away in another two. It's worth saying, these are my initial score predictions, but I always put a couple of variations on for the games I see as most volatile.
ACCA 1 - Odds 7072/1
South Africa 1-2 Canada
Brazil 2-1 Japan
Germany 3-0 Paraguay
Netherlands 2-2 Morocco *(Netherlands win on pens)
ACCA 2 - Odds 4290/1
Ivory Coast 1-3 Norway
France 2-0 Sweden
Mexico 1-1 Ecuador *(Mexico win on Pens)
England 3-0 DR Congo
ACCA 3 - Odds 6084/1
Belgium 1-2 Senegal
USA 2-0 Bosnia
Spain 3-1 Austria
Portugal 1-1 Croatia *(Croatia win on pens)
ACCA 4 - Odds 2817/1
Switzerland 2-1 Algeria
Australia 0-1 Egypt
Argentina 4-0 Cape Verde
Colombia 2-0 Ghana
I can't be the only one. For some reason it really annoys me, the way the pieces animate when they move. Absolute overkill. Perfect example of when something ain't broke, don't fix it. I'm an animator by trade so I should be for more animation, but it's just unnecessary and distracting.
I looked at frequency certain options would have hit
BTTS 71% (17 games)
Team win + BTTS 38% (9 games)
Draw + BTTS 33% (8 games)
Win to nil 25% (6 games)
0-0 draw 4% (1 game)
Most Common scorelines
1-1 25% (6 games)
3-1 17% (4 games)
1-0 8% (2 games)
2-0 8% (2 games)
2-2 8% (2 games)
4-1 8% (2 games)
0-0, 2-1, 3-0, 4-2, 5-1 and 7-1 all occurred just once, making up 4% each.
I think 2-1 and 3-0 in particular happened less frequently than you'd expect, so I imagine you'll see those scores more often in the next 24 games. I've rounded up or down with some of the percentages to the nearest whole number.
After analysing the score and result predictions from all of the opening games. I've decided to make an updated list with new correct score bets I'll be putting on. In the first games I got 16/24 results correct (66%). 7 of the 8 incorrect results were just one goal away from being correct. The only one where I was wildly off was Australia v Turkey. In terms of correct scores I had 5/24 correct (21%) and a further 5 scores were just one goal away from being correct. Not a bad performance really. So here are my updated predictions if anybody wants to tail. I'll keep updating this and the original thread after each game to track accuracy. All opinions welcome, even those calling me an idiot 😘
ACCA 7
Czechia 2-1 South Africa ❌️ (1-1)
Switzerland 1-2 Bosnia ❌️ (4-1)
Canada 2-0 Qatar ❌️☑️ (6-0)
Mexico 2-2 South Korea
ACCA 8
USA 3-1 Australia
Scotland 1-2 Morocco
Brazil 4-0 Haiti
Turkey 1-2 Paraguay
ACCA 9
Netherlands 3-1 Sweden
Germany 3-1 Ivory Coast
Ecuador 3-0 Curacao
Tunisia 0-2 Japan
ACCA 10
Spain 3-0 Saudi Arabia
Belgium 3-1 Iran
Uruguay 1-1 Cape Verde
New Zealand 1-2 Egypt
ACCA 11
Argentina 3-1 Austria
France 4-0 Iraq
Norway 3-2 Senegal
Jordan 1-2 Algeria
ACCA 12
Portugal 2-1 Uzbekistan
England 3-0 Ghana
Panama 1-2 Croatia
Colombia 2-0 DR Congo
ACCA 13
Switzerland 2-1 Canada
Bosnia 2-1 Qatar
Morocco 3-0 Haiti
Scotland 2-1 Brazil
ACCA 14
South Africa 1-3 South Korea
Czechia 1-1 Mexico
Curacao 1-2 Ivory Coast
Ecuador 1-3 Germany
ACCA 15
Japan 3-2 Sweden
Tunisia 0-4 Netherlands
Paraguay 1-1 Australia
Turkey 1-2 USA
ACCA16
Senegal 2-1 Iraq
Norway 2-2 France
Cape Verde 1-2 Saudi Arabia
Uruguay 1-2 Spain
ACCA 17
New Zealand 0-4 Belgium
Egypt 2-1 Iran
Panama 1-4 England
Croatia 2-1 Ghana
ACCA 18
Colombia 3-2 Portugal
DR Congo 1-1 Uzbekistan
Jordan 0-4 Argentina
Algeria 2-2 Austria
This is my full list of group game predictions if anybody wants to tail any. I've basically put on correct score bets for every game in groups of four. So 18 four fold accas. If the USA beat Paraguay 3-1, that's £11,500 in the bag. Obviously some people will strongly disagree with many of these but would be fun to get some other people's opinions/guesses.
*just to add, I know how unlikely it is to get four correct scores. I'm not deluded, partly doing it for fun, partly hoping to make a shitload of money
ACCA 1
Mexico 2-0 South Africa ✅ ☑️
South Korea 2-1 Czechia ✅ ☑️
Canada 1-1 Bosnia ✅ ☑️
USA 3-1 Paraguay ❌️ ☑️ (Final score 4-1)
I cashed out in 96th minute lol 💰 💰 💰
ACCA 2
Qatar 0-3 Switzerland ❌️ (Final score 1-1)
Brazil 2-2 Morocco ❌️☑️ (Final score 1-1)
Haiti 1-2 Scotland ❌️☑️ (Final score 0-1)
Australia 0-2 Turkey ❌️ (Final score 2-0)
ACCA 3
Germany 5-0 Curacao ❌️☑️ (Final score 7-1)
Netherlands 2-3 Japan ❌️ (Final score 2-2)
Ivory Coast 2-1 Ecuador ❌️☑️ (Final score 1-0)
Sweden 1-0 Tunisia ❌️☑️ (Final score 5-1)
ACCA 4
Spain 2-0 Cape Verde
Belgium 0-0 Egypt
Saudi Arabia 0-2 Uruguay
Iran 3-1 New Zealand
ACCA 5
France 3-1 Senegal
Iraq 0-4 Norway
Argentina 3-0 Algeria
Austria 2-0 Jordan
ACCA 6
Portugal 4-1 DR Congo
England 1-0 Croatia
Ghana 1-1 Panama
Uzbekistan 1-2 Colombia
ACCA 7
Czechia 2-1 South Africa
Switzerland 1-1 Bosnia
Canada 1-0 Qatar
Mexico 3-2 South Korea
ACCA 8
USA 2-0 Australia
Scotland 2-2 Morocco
Brazil 4-0 Haiti
Turkey 1-1 Paraguay
ACCA 9
Netherlands 3-1 Sweden
Germany 3-1 Ivory Coast
Ecuador 3-0 Curacao
Tunisia 0-1 Japan
ACCA 10
Spain 3-0 Saudi Arabia
Belgium 1-1 Iran
Uruguay 1-2 Cape Verde
New Zealand 0-1 Egypt
ACCA 11
Argentina 2-1 Austria
France 3-0 Iraq
Norway 3-2 Senegal
Jordan 1-1 Algeria
ACCA 12
Portugal 4-1 Uzbekistan
England 2-0 Ghana
Panama 0-2 Croatia
Colombia 1-0 DR Congo
ACCA 13
Switzerland 3-1 Canada
Bosnia 2-1 Qatar
Morocco 2-0 Haiti
Scotland 2-1 Brazil
ACCA 14
South Africa 1-1 South Korea
Czechia 1-1 Mexico
Curacao 1-2 Ivory Coast
Ecuador 1-3 Germany
ACCA 15
Japan 2-1 Sweden
Tunisia 0-2 Netherlands
Paraguay 1-0 Australia
Turkey 2-2 USA
ACCA16
Senegal 2-1 Iraq
Norway 2-1 France
Cape Verde 1-2 Saudi Arabia
Uruguay 2-2 Spain
ACCA 17
New Zealand 0-4 Belgium
Egypt 2-1 Iran
Panama 0-4 England
Croatia 2-0 Ghana
ACCA 18
Colombia 2-2 Portugal
DR Congo 1-2 Uzbekistan
Jordan 0-3 Argentina
Algeria 1-2 Austria
I'm guessing my first mistake is taking the pawn. I feel like I've fallen into this trap a few times. Any help would be appreciated.
I was crunching numbers trying to predict the outcome of the Makerfield by election. I've taken the recent local election figures and scaled them up to reflect the same turnout of the last general election. I've tried to be very conservative and have given Burnham 30% of votes swinging from Greens and Lib Dems to him, even giving him 10% of votes from Conservatives and Reform. I've then given 15% of Reform's votes to Restore. And have assumed 5% of conservatives might vote Reform tactically to stop labour. So even if you take 20% of Reform votes away and give Burnham far more swing votes than is realistic, Reform still win with a slender majority of 300ish votes.
I think I could be underestimating the turnout here. A lot of disenfranchised labour voters who abstained in the last GE might just show up for Burnham. Before the 2019 general election Labour regularly got over 20,000 votes in Makerfield. Reaching as many as 28,000 when Corbyn was leader.
I think it's gonna be tight but I think/hope Reform will edge it. What might well be a deciding factor is if the Greens opt not to field another candidate after theirs pulled out yesterday. That could just tip things in Labour's favour.
Does anyone else have any thoughts/insights of what they expect will happen? Do you think Restore might take more votes or less?
I want a Restore government. I live in the Makerfield constituency in Platt Bridge, but I'm voting for Reform in this by election. A vote for Restore this time round is a vote for Labour. It pains me to say that but it's true. The party is too young at only a few months old. Look at the position Reform were in a couple of years ago versus where they are now. If Restore split the vote by too much in this election, Burnham gets in, all the lefties who have defected to the greens will flock back to Labour under their new messiah and all it will do is consolidate power on the left. If you're also in the Makerfield constituency, I urge you to use your brain. Vote Reform this time to keep Burnham out and send a message. Then in the next general election I'll be right there with you voting in a Restore MP when the party is bigger and better placed to actually win seats.